Kovacevic: Yet another blown lead, now in an excruciating Game 7, exposes what Penguins' management really needs to do

NEW YORK -- Go right ahead and blow it up. 

Save the cap space, spend elsewhere, start over, the whole shebang.

But no, I'm not pointing to the Penguins' Core, believe it or not. Rather, it's their overpriced, underwhelming blue line, which, for one final time in the 2021-22 NHL season, brought about the most excruciating penance the Stanley Cup playoffs can exact: 

New York 4, Pittsburgh 3.

Game 7.

Overtime.

After having a 3-1 lead in the series, after 2-0 leads on the scoreboard in both Games 5 and 6, and after a third-period 3-2 lead in this one.

Oh, and a fourth consecutive first-round failure.

My goodness.

"It's disappointing," Tristan Jarry would say after limping into the press area with a big bag of ice wrapped around his foot and an even bigger limp. "We had a good team, we were able to put some good games together this year. And just going up 3-1 in the series, I think ... it's tough. Just not being able to close it out."

"It's disappointing," Jake Guentzel would echo minutes later, his downcast eyes and barely audible tone suggesting it was so much worse than that. "I mean, we're right there. You know, we put ourselves in a good spot being up, 3-1. Just disappointed to think that we had a lead in each game and kind of give that away."

Gave it away. Yeah, sounds about right.

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Looks about right, too. Giveaways afflicted the Penguins through all but Game 1 of this series, and this wasn't an exception:

Those were the Rangers' three regulation goals, and all three of them were rooted in a defenseman making a mistake.

In order:

1. John Marino pinched on the first goal without cause, allowing New York's only two consistently dangerous forwards in the series, Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider, to finish off a two-on-one with a bazooka. 

Marcus Pettersson sliding back on his stomach, instead of steadily cutting off the pass, didn't help.

2. K'Andre Miller's otherwise harmless centering attempt on the second goal caromed in off Mike Matheson, marking a mind-blowing fourth New York goal in the series on which he'd have the final touch, thus putting him in line for the Bizarro Conn Smythe Trophy.

Say what one will about the lousy luck anytime that happens to anyone, but a greater assertiveness/effectiveness when bodying up a man in net-front duels keeps any defenseman further from harm's way.

3. Pettersson had his helmet ripped off his head by Alexis Lafrenière before the third goal, and that should've merited a roughing minor. Pettersson then bolted for the bench because of his interpretation of a rule related to players losing helmets during play, and Kris Letang had replaced him on the rink. 

The puck would make its way over to Marino by the right boards, and he'd have not one but two chances to clear -- most obviously right back behind the net -- and he instead chose to try ... the middle?

Hello?

Watch it again:

What's he even seeing there?

I'll say it: That's not a $4.4 million player. Which was Marino's cap hit this season, plus what it'll be each of the next ... one, two, three, four, five freaking seasons, as well. Thanks to a generous Jim Rutherford contract that was whipped up after an encouraging if hardly definitive rookie rise.

I'll also say that Pettersson isn't a $4.025 million player. Which was his cap hit this season, plus what it'll be each of the next ... one, two, three seasons, as well.

I'll also say that Matheson, mercurial as he can be, isn't a $4.875 million player. Which was his cap hit this season, plus what it'll be each of the next ... one, two, three, four seasons, as well.

I'll also say that Brian Dumoulin, who'd been lost for the series in Game 1 and who's missed extensive time in general now that he's into his 30s, isn't a $4.1 million player. Which was his cap hit this season, plus what it'll be again next season.

In fact, I'll also say that the only three defensemen on the roster who aren't overpaid are Kris Letang, still a good market value at $7.25 million even at age 35, and the third-pairing bargains in Chad Ruhwedel at $750,00 and Mark Friedman at $725,000.

Total bill for the position: $27,375,175
NHL rank in that category: No. 1

That's a problem. That's quite possibly the problem.

The NHL's cap barely increases next season, from $81.5 million to $82.5, and most of that increase was burned by the two-year premature-retirement contract Ron Hextall gifted Jeff Carter in the middle of this season, with his own cap hit increasing by $490,000.

So, if this defense stays intact, it'll continue to account for a third of the entire payroll, or 33.2%, next season.

That can't happen.

I'm not a GM, I don't have access to a sliver of the inside information Hextall's got, regarding who might be coveted elsewhere and what the Penguins might procure in return. But I'm quite comfortable, I'd think, in believing that one or more can be moved. Even if it's for low-round draft picks and the far more precious cap space they'd bring.

The only defenseman who's a priority to keep is, ironically for this discussion, Letang. Because, for however much he might frustrate from time to time, this team has no one close to his talent, durability and versatility. And acquiring one from the outside would cost infinitely more than he'll ask to stay. It'll be a raise over the $7.25 million salary -- I've heard that myself -- but it won't break the bank. Nor will it be out of whack with reality, since he's currently the NHL's 19th-highest-paid defenseman, and he's a heck of a lot better than a bunch of the 18 making more. 

After that, start subtracting.

Look, I'd be all in favor of a high-priced or even the high-priced defense corps if they'd win games. But they don't. All available data strongly suggests they're mediocre at their optimal, and they're far below that if Letang's removed from the equation. 

Whereas, at the same time, the forward depth has paid the price in the most literal sense: It's wonderful to hit on budget signings like Danton Heinen ($1.1 million), Evan Rodrigues ($1 million) or Brian Boyle ($750,000), but it's a lousy way to build a balanced team and, specific to this roster, it's not necessary. The Mike Sullivan system places almost equal emphasis on defending among all skaters, and that can be attacked efficiently by acquiring most of the smart, speedy forwards he tends to covet.

Injuries aside, did anyone deem any of the Penguins' supplementary forward lines to be threatening in this series? Beyond a shift or two?

This team was at its peak this past regular season from October to mid-January. And that didn't end, contrary to popular mythology, because Evgeni Malkin came back. It's because those supplementary forwards got gassed. There weren't enough of them and, parenthetically, Sullivan didn't trust what was brought up from Wilkes-Barre. So those forwards stopped scoring and, heck, stopped doing much of anything.

Spread the wealth up front. Find a way to keep both Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell, but absolutely the latter. Rocket Kasperi Kapanen's $3.2 million cap hit into the hot sun. Find better defensemen. Remember that P.O Joseph still exists. All of that really can occur simultaneously.

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So can keeping the Core. And it's the right thing to do, and not at all for sappy, sentimental reasons.

No, Malkin and Letang aren't capable of carrying a team as they once were, although there are still spurts of dominance from both. And no, they weren't exactly overwhelming in this series — Malkin with three goals and three assists, Letang with a goal and three assists, and both were as culpable as anyone for the top power-play unit laying a two-week egg.

But again, I'll boomerang the subject back to value.

I made my case above for Letang, and Malkin's is easier: He's still producing at a point-a-game pace, he's done so despite a never-ending rotation of whatever wingers -- it's no coincidence he was at his best in this series when flanked by Guentzel and Bryan Rust in Sid's absence, just as it's no coincidence he was hard to find in Game 7 when saddled with Kapanen -- and he's already sent strong signals that he'll take a cut from his current $9.5 million salary.

Recall his "I'm, like, pretty rich guy" crack?

That alone, I'm thinking, could cover Letang's raise. 

If anyone's expecting Sid, Geno or Letang to reverse time and become career-prime versions of themselves, they'll be endlessly disappointed. But this doesn't have to be about that. Consider all three of them, however odd this'll feel, as if they're random, faceless free agents, and all three would offer outstanding value.

Stop right here and think about that, then good luck countering it.

See?

The Penguins have no feasible way to replace either player and, with Crosby at age 36 and entering the final three years of his own contract, a nosedive to any degree makes zero sense.

Neither does losing sight of the very real sappy, sentimental stuff that's still in play in this scenario.

Especially when it comes to the captain, as was evident when I brought up if he'd thought about this maybe being his last game alongside Geno and/or Letang:

"It’s a possibility," Sid replied. "I think we knew that coming into the playoffs, but I think you try not to really think about that. You hope that we make a good run and it's something in the back your mind. I think it's something that I really tried not to think about too much, to be honest with you."

And what would he do, if it were up to him?

"Yeah, I mean, it's not up to me. But obviously, I've had a great experience playing with these guys over the years and know what they bring. You know, I love our group. If you look at our group this year, you look at the guys who had career years and what we had to go through even to get to this point ... a lot of people didn't expect us to get this far, let alone get in the playoffs. But we had high expectations, we battled through a lot, and so many guys contributed. And I think, for all those reasons, we thought we'd still be playing. But you know, it's tough. We did a lot of good things. And guys ... guys left it out there."

Sullivan turned down a chance to take a similar question, saying, "Just the raw emotion of losing in overtime in a hard-fought series is what's on my mind."

But the two other players the team brought to the media interview area addressed it.

"That's something you never want to think about," Jarry said. "They're generational players, and Pittsburgh's lucky enough to have three of them for the last 15 years. It’s a bond that they've created throughout the team and throughout management. I think it's something that's irreplaceable. It's a business, but I think that, if they're able to come back, they definitely will. There’s a bond between them, and I think that's unbreakable."

"This league is a business, and you just never know what's going to happen," Guentzel said. "I mean, we've got guys who've been here a long time. And they mean so much to Pittsburgh and our team. So that's tough to say what's gonna happen now. But just kind of wait and see."

Unbreakable or not, wait and see is all anyone can do now.

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Everyone will have different views, different visions, whether on the inside or outside, whether in Hextall's mega-meeting-room in Cranberry or on the couch of a solitary fan. 

Most, I'm guessing, will be sour about how this finished. And not without cause. I didn't like Hextall locking himself into airtight cap situations when he could've simply sent Kapanen elsewhere. I didn't like Hextall/Sullivan never giving a prospect a chance, even when one of their rare cameos would show promise. I didn't like Sullivan ignoring the instant chemistry Sid and Rakell had shown, prioritizing comfort over ceiling. I really, really didn't like the undying fantasy that all involved seemed to have that Kapanen's next shift would somehow be the one that saved his career.

But I'll share this, even if it's unpopular or untimely: I liked this team. I appreciated this season. And I share Sid's aforementioned assessment that it exceeded most outside expectations. Including my own.

The team was deeper in both speed and skill than I'd thought it'd be, as embodied by Heinen, Rodrigues and a resurgent Guentzel scoring the three goals here:

The team also was more consistently fiery, more relentless in its work ethic than any since the 2017 champions, as embodied by Jason Zucker flinging himself all over creation despite a presumed bad back that prompted the equipment staff to carve out special seating for him during games, something I brought up with Sullivan after this:

"I can't say enough about this group of players," he'd come back. "I just think the world of them. You know, they're ... they're great people. They're a privilege to coach. I told them that after the game. I'm more disappointed for them than I am for anybody because I know how much they care. I know how hard they play."

Slight pause.

"It stings."

Thought he might break up there, I swear.

They took it to heart. All of them. And in an admiring way, I liked that, too. 

Emotions are as high right now as the mood is low. And maybe it's best for that to level off. There are weeks and months ahead for reactions that'll be more measured than rash, all more worthwhile than what anyone's experiencing in the moment.

Which leads me into a final thing I'd liked about this team, one that'll probably rise to the top over time: It's found a franchise goaltender.

Jarry entered this season as the most prominent question mark, and he ended it as an exclamation point. He buried the Islanders series, bounced back in a big way, then reported for duty on a single leg on a Game 7 -- the first goaltender in Stanley Cup history to make his series debut with a stone-cold Game 7 start, amazingly -- and acquitted himself well, with half his goals caroming off teammates, and the other half being bullets.

Beyond that, he grew up as much or more than anyone I've covered on this beat on a year-to-year basis, conducting himself in this particular postgame session with a maturity and resolve I'd never seen or heard from him, from ripping the helmet rule to passionately praising Louis Domingue and Casey DeSmith for how they filled in for him to ... eh, I'll just let him write the ending here.

"It was a tough year. We had a lot of injured games lost, I think probably in the top three," he'd say, and he wasn't far off, per this advanced metric:

"So it's definitely tough. I don't think we had a single game where we had our full team. We always played a man down or even six or seven at times. It's tough. And we were still able to get past it. And we were still able to be one of the top teams in the league. So I think it's shows the character we have in this group. It shows the leadership we have. And those are guys we never want to lose."

Don't overthink which guys he meant.

GETTY

Tristan Jarry lunges too late to stop a ricochet off Mike Matheson's skate for the Rangers' second goal.

THE ESSENTIALS

• Boxscore
• Live file
• Scoreboard
• Standings
• Statistics
• Schedule

THE THREE STARS

As selected at Madison Square Garden:

1. Artemi Panarin, Rangers LW
2. Mika Zibanejad, Rangers C
3. Evan Rodrigues, Penguins RW

THE HIGHLIGHTS

THE INJURIES

• Brian Boyle, center, was considered week-to-week with a lower-body injury, Sullivan announced in the morning. I've learned that it was an ankle injury.

• Brian Dumoulin, defenseman, was considered day-to-day with a lower-body injury. He'd yet to resume skating.

• Casey DeSmith, goaltender, was done for the season after having core muscle surgery two weeks ago.

THE LINEUPS

Sullivan’s lines and pairings:

Guentzel-Crosby-Rust
Rakell-Malkin-Kapanen
Zucker-Carter-Heinen
McGinn-Blueger-Rodrigues

Matheson-Letang
Pettersson-Marino
Friedman-Ruhwedel

And for Gallant's Rangers:

Kreider-Zibanejad-Vatrano
Panarin-Strome-Copp
Lafreniere-Chytil-Kakko
Motte-Rooney-Reaves

Lindgren-Fox
Miller-Trouba
Braun-Schneider

THE SCHEDULE

That's it, kids. It's all-the-way baseball season. The Pirates are at Wrigley the next three days. I'll be at PNC Park this weekend.

THE CONTENT

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