There are no guarantees for the remainder of the Pitt football season.
Nothing should be off-limits, nothing should be considered impossible, and nothing should come as a surprise by this point for a 1-3 team that doesn't have many positives going for it.
Even in this circumstance Saturday at 8 p.m. in Blacksburg, Va., where Pitt -- a team with 20 wins in the last two seasons and a truckload of momentum pulling it into this one -- is a 2.5-point favorite over a Virginia Tech program that has won 10 games since the start of the 2021 season and is 4-11 in the Brent Pry era.
If that is not a sign of the times, here is what else might be:
Going forward, Pitt will not be favored in these games like they used to be. The spreads and lines for college football games are, of course, subjective, but they can also be a telltale indicator of one program's comparability to another. Is Pitt better than Virginia Tech? Probably, but it is also clear that this Panthers team is not your older brother's Panthers team from 2021 and 2022 that would be considered head and shoulders better than a counterpart that is 1-3 as the Hokies are.
This is why Pat Narduzzi needs to consider the younger Panthers"
"They're trying to get better," Narduzzi said Monday of his offense. "They're sitting in here last time, they've got a great attitude. Our guys are ready to move on. It's the same thing; they see those two drives and go, 'let's do that all the time, and why can't we be more consistent?' Again, it's attention to detail. It's just you start to fade away and you start to try to make a play. Just got to be more detailed. Again, it's some young guys making mistakes, and we've got to get it fixed up, and we will."
Letting the young guys make mistakes is a part of growth. But, there are not many opportunities for those young guys to go out and make the necessary in-game mistakes in order to grow and get better for the now and the future.
When glancing at Pitt's two-deep for this week's game, it's easy to notice a trend. Of the 25 starters -- 11 on offense, 11 on defense, the place-kicker, punter, and long snapper -- only four players retain status as a redshirt sophomore or younger: Wide receiver Daejon Reynolds, true freshman guard B.J. Williams, free safety Javon McIntyre, and punter Caleb Junko. If you want to add in true freshman Kenny Johnson as the team's primary kick returner, then that would make for five starters representing the youth movement.
At 1-3, Pitt is not likely to be favored at Notre Dame, against Florida State, at Syracuse, at Duke, and possibly against Louisville. Pitt is four losses away from missing out on bowl eligibility for the first time since Pitt finished 5-7 in 2017. Missing out on a bowl in 2023 would be the second instance in Narduzzi's nine-year tenure.
If this trend persists and Pitt falls farther, the youth movement at least has to be considered. However, moves within the starting rotation would come off as unlikely unless an injury occurs based on Narduzzi's history.
For example, had Matt Goncalves not sustained a season-ending foot injury against West Virginia, Ryan Baer would not be playing this season despite being Narduzzi's highest-rated recruit in the class of 2022. Prospects of Baer's caliber do not sit the bench often elsewhere, and the logjam created at offensive tackle pushed a top recruit to the bottom of the pile in this case.
"He made a good jump from playing the time he did against West Virginia down there. That was a good start," Narduzzi said of Baer. "I'm glad he didn't just get his fresh start this -- having to come in in relief because we got a chance to at least practice him for three days. But I think Ryan Baer is only going to get better, and Branson Taylor same thing."
The above answer was Narduzzi's response to a question specifically asked about Baer, and he found a way to shoehorn Taylor into the conversation, anyway. That is what this is about.
Starting left guard Ryan Jacoby was ruled out for the season with a leg injury, and Narduzzi deferred to redshirt senior and career backup Jason Collier to start over Williams, only for Narduzzi to pull the plug on Collier after one game and start Williams in Week 2. Jake Kradel was unavailable Saturday against North Carolina, and Terrence Moore did a fine job filling in for him at center.
Williams and Moore should be the examples and not the exceptions.
Other cases of this have arisen at points of Narduzzi's offense and defense.
Bub Means is not a No. 1 wide receiver, despite Phil Jurkovec and Frank Cignetti Jr. treating him as such. For all of the hype and the praise the athletic specimen gathered in the preseason, Means has hauled in just six catches for 71 yards in four games. He was targeted 11 times and had zero receptions against Cincinnati. That cannot happen.
At some point, Johnson should take over for Means. Barring an injury, he won't. Konata Mumpfield has been Pitt's best wide receiver through four weeks with 16 catches for 183 yards and two touchdowns, and Reynolds has been steadier than Means when targeted and has one more reception and 15 more yards than Means this season.
The right defensive end spot, opposite Dayon Hayes, has become a deficiency. The rotation of seniors Nate Temple and Bam Brima have combined for 2.0 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks in four games. That is not enough for a Narduzzi and Charlie Partridge defensive line. Pitt has redshirt sophomore Nahki Johnson and redshirt freshman Samuel Okunlola as rotational players, but it might be the time to consider giving one or both the lion's share of the snaps over their senior counterparts.
The same goes for Kyle Louis at linebacker. The redshirt freshman showed promise in his firs start as a Panther in place of the injured Bangally Kamara against North Carolina by posing three tackles and one-half for loss. The linebackers, overall, have not been a major issue for the Panthers, but giving Louis some more snaps within the rotation of Kamara, Shayne Simon, Brandon George, and Solomon DeShields could better serve the room going forward.
"Kyle Louis is a physical, fast, aggressive -- I love the way he plays," Narduzzi said. "He can play a little bit more under control. He missed a couple tackles, I think three. If you go back and look at it, that's just young guy stuff. He's just so fast. But he will get better rep after rep. I'm excited about his future. But was he perfect? No. Again, nobody is, obviously. But he had a good day, but he could have a great day."
If Pitt is in danger of missing out on the postseason, these moves need to be permanently considered in order to help set the table for the 2024 season. Narduzzi lauded that the sweeping amount of players who had to start the 2022 Sun Bowl in place of the opt outs and transfers who left were able to give Pitt a head start for 2023.
If Pitt wants to get ahead for 2024, the same logic might apply at some point.
That point could be approaching sooner than expected.
