Since being named the Pirates' general manager in November 2019, Ben Cherington has been fairly vague about what constitutes success in the immediate future. The long-term goal was to build a winner, but when it came to the shorter window, the goal was to just get better. Interpret that as much or as little as you want.
That's what made his spot on his weekly 93.7 The Fan radio show Sunday morning so eye-opening. When asked by broadcaster Joe Block if the Pirates could compete for the playoffs next year, he treaded into new territory.
"We're very optimistic in the direction we're going," Cherington said. "... We all have a job to do to help us get better and get into the position you’re talking about. Not just the position you’re talking about, but frankly beyond that position. We want to win more than 84 games. That’s what we’re building toward. I believe, if we all do our jobs, we can build toward that and be competitive next year. But talk's cheap. We have to go do it. We have to do the stuff that will add up to those wins."
The Pirates would go on to support such a sentiment on the field Sunday, beating the Yankees at PNC Park, 3-2. It was their 70th win, a modest total but the first time they reached it since 2018. A double-digit win improvement from 2022 seems virtually assured. In rough figures, the Pirates should bridge about half the gap of the 100-loss team they were in 2022 to the win total they would need to be a playoff team.
Postgame, Derek Shelton echoed Cherington's belief that the team is close.
"I think we're seeing the really good guts of a good core that's going to be able to compete," Shelton said.
Sunday's win featured a dominant one-two punch at the backend of the bullpen from Carmen Mlodzinski and David Bednar to close the game, clutch hits from some young players and some resiliency, battling back in the seventh after Andre Jackson allowed a game-tying homer. Those are the ingredients for helping the Pirates become contenders.
What comes next, though? How do the Pirates take that next step? Cherington jokingly answered by scoring more runs and allowing fewer. But as he has stated for years now, the focus is going to start internally.
"So much of what we’re capable of doing and believe we can do in 2024 is going to be driven by the players who are already here continuing improvement," Cherington said. "Guys who are on the team now, guys who are in the minor leagues, guys who may not be there for opening day 2024 but might have a chance to make an impact midway through. We’ve seen a lot of players do that here the last few weeks. It’s all of that stuff."
Five reasons for such optimism in 2024:
THE HARD PART IS OVER
Is it too much to say that the worst is behind them? That instead of dealing with placeholders while waiting for the top prospects to get ready for the majors, it's actually those young players who are learning and growing in the majors?
"The most important thing is this is a group of guys that we feel that we can build with and continue to go with and compete with," Shelton said. "The fact that they're being able to get this many reps for an extended period of time is really important for us."
“There’s a different energy around here," Mitch Keller was telling me. "I think we know just about everyone in this room is going to be back next year. That’s definitely a cool vibe to have.”
The last couple winters, the Pirates went into the offseason not knowing who was coming back. This winter, the focus is going to be on adding players.
“In the past, we didn’t know who was going to be back, what the pieces might look like next year," Keller said. "But this year, we’ve got [Oneil] Cruz, [Ke'Bryan] Hayes. We’ve got our pieces. Reynolds, Jack [Suwinski]. We’ve got all the cornerstone pieces in place.”
And those players aren't taking things lightly down the stretch. The Pirates are 29-26 over their last 55 games, which is over a third of the season. If they played at that pace for a full year, they're in a wild card race, and that's without taking a step forward from their first taste of pro ball.
“A lot of our young guys, down the stretch, this is an opportunity for them next year," Hayes said to me. "They’re not going out there like, ‘Oh, two weeks left. Let’s get through it.’ They’re competing every single play because what we’re doing now is going to dictate what we’re doing next year going into spring training.”
For example, on Sunday, Jared Triolo doubled twice and scored on both occasions, once on a Liover Peguero hit and -- for the winning run in the seventh inning -- on a Jason Delay double. PNC Park was loud, averaging about 30,000 fans a game for the weekend series, and they rose to the occasion.
“That was the message Shelty had for us after the game: That’s a playoff environment right there," Delay said. "That’s a situation that we want to be in moving forward. Obviously, we have a lot really young [players], a lot of rookies in this clubhouse. For them to get that exposure and get that experience it’s going to go a long way next year.”
THE NEXT WAVE CLICKS
There are more prospects on the way, too.
If 2023's graduating prospect class was position-player heavy (Rodríguez, Davis, Peguero, Triolo, Gonzales), next year's is pitching-centric. Jared Jones has ascended top 100 prospect status and has pitched well of late for Class AAA Indianapolis. At just 20 years old, lefty Anthony Solometo more than held his own in the very hitter-friendly Greensboro and Class AA Altoona this year. Jackson Wolf and Kyle Nicolas are on the major-league radar, and Mike Burrows should be back midseason as he is on the mend from Tommy John surgery.
"What is clear to us is we have more young players matriculating onto the highest levels of the organization," Cherington said. "The more we have of those, the more quality competition we’ll have. We’ll look to supplant that through trade and free agency as well."
Plus, there's this year's No. 1 overall pick, Paul Skenes.
"I want to get there as as soon as possible," Skenes said earlier this month. "That’s why this offseason is so important to prepare myself physically and mentally to do that challenge. I want to win at the highest level. I’ve seen a lot of the guys that are in this organization and see the people that are in the big leagues right now. I feel -- and I think a lot of people feel -- that we have an opportunity to win very soon. If I can contribute to that opening day, I want to do that."
The Pirates have operated for about a month with a rotation of two mainstays in Keller and Johan Oviedo and some variation of mixing or matching or an opener in between. There will still be some of that in 2024, but it will be far less prevalent than it is now.
"When we’re closer to the team that we want to be and winning more games, more than likely, we’re gonna have fewer days where we are using openers, matching up in different ways early in the game. But it won’t be zero," Cherington had said to traveling media in Kansas City late last month. "Playoff teams are doing that right now. There are gonna be days where we do that. I think it’s the nature of modern baseball."
FINDING THAT VELO
Injuries are a big reason why the Pirates are in a rotation crunch right now. It also doesn't help that three of their top young pitchers this year -- Roasny Contreras, Quinn Priester and Luis Ortiz -- have hit road bumps this year, with a drop in velocity being a common theme.
Ortiz is still throwing in the upper-90s and getting a better handle on his mechanics. Priester showed a significant velocity jump in his last start, which he credited to getting out of his head.
That leaves Contreras, who was optioned to the minors in early July and spent time at the team's Florida complex to try to get his mechanics back in order.
“Our big-league group noticed and flagged that he was not moving the same way he has in the past," pitching development coordinator Josh Hopper told me recently. "Obviously he’s very important to us, so we wanted to pour in time, be really intentional with him. The one thing that we actually felt positive about is the actual pitch profiles have come back. You’re not going to recapture velocity in two weeks, two and a half weeks with us."
The work with Contreras has been movement based, and while he doesn't have his velocity back, getting that pitch profile again means he can go out and compete the way he is used to. He still needs that velocity, but it's a step in the right direction for getting him back to the majors, whether that's over these last two weeks or in 2024.
“Maybe this is me being optimistic, but I really do think the offseason is going to be tremendous for him," Hopper said, believing they can "rebuild the engine" of his velocity before next year.
These three pitchers are wild cards in the Pirates' plans going forward. They can't miss on all three. Based on conversations I've had, the Pirates won't.
GET ONEIL BACK
This one is simple: Get the player with the highest ceiling back in the mix.
Cruz was officially ruled out for the rest of the season earlier this week, and the Pirates have plenty of difficulty filling his quite literally giant shoes. Rodolfo Castro, Tucupita Marcano and Alika Williams lead the team in innings played at shortstop, and the trio has combined for -1.1 WAR. Even if Cruz doesn't take the big step forward many expected from him this year, it would still be a significant upgrade for the position.
"He was a huge piece of the upside of the team," Cherington said. "When we came into the season, if you think about, ‘What are the things that would have to happen for us to exceed expectations and remain in contention and be competitive?’ ... it’s more than one thing, but Oneil finding that next level was on that list. We thought it was possible that that could happen. We thought some of the changes we were seeing in him in a very small sample early in the season made it seem like it could happen. Then, it just didn't happen. It took away a real piece of the upside of the team for 2023. Not making excuses. It just did."
Don't tell Cruz about those tapered expectations, though. He's already shooting for a 40-40 season again, if not more.
"I’m going to set my bar high from last year and do things I can’t even imagine right now," Cruz said, via interpreter Stephen Morales. "I’m going to be in a good spot mentally and physically, and it’s going to be a special year."
ADD SOME MORE
Last winter, the Pirates added seven veteran players who cost roughly a collective $35 million: Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Santana, Rich Hill, Vince Velasquez, Austin Hedges, Ji-Man Choi and Jarlin García. García has been unable to pitch since spring training, but going by FanGraphs' calculations, those players combined for 4.5 WAR for the Pirates this season (and in several cases, netted some young players at the trade deadline). Going by FanGraphs' most recent evaluation of teams spending about $8.5 million per WAR in free agency, the Pirates pretty much broke even with their investment.
They'll need to do better than breaking even next year. Even if they were to work with roughly that amount of capital again, that's enough to add impact players.
The most obvious move is to reunite with McCutchen, who is set to be a free agent after the season. He and the Pirates will sit down once the season has concluded to talk about his injury and the direction of the team. McCutchen has stated multiple times his wish to stay.
"There's a desire for him to return," Cherington said, confirming the Pirates' interest.
There are still areas to fill besides McCutchen as a designated hitter and potential backup outfielder. Connor Joe and Alfonso Rivas have held down first base post-trade-deadline, but without a clear prospect at that position, it could be an area to upgrade. Santana said a few weeks ago in Milwaukee that he would like to return to the Pirates this winter, where he was a clubhouse leader. Pitching is always an area of need, both in the rotation and the bullpen.
Velasquez also wants to come back next year, and even if he won't be ready opening day as he recovers from UCL surgery, a reunion would make sense for both sides.
"I wanted to be part of a team that was going to be part of the biggest upsets," Velasquez said in July. "I can’t do it now, but I’m excited to see what we’re developing and try to take that over to the next year and be part of that."
If you ask the Pirates, it won't be much of an upset next year.
THE ESSENTIALS
• Boxscore
• Live file
• Team feed
• Standings
• Statistics
• Schedule
• Scoreboard
THE HIGHLIGHTS
THE INJURIES
• 10-day injured list: DH/OF Andrew McCutchen (Achilles)
• 60-day injured list: SS Oneil Cruz (ankle), RHP JT Brubaker (elbow), LHP Jarlin Garcia (elbow), RHP Max Kranick (elbow), INF Tucupita Marcano (knee), LHP Angel Perdomo (elbow), RHP Vince Velasquez (elbow)
THE LINEUPS
Shelton's card:
1. Liover Peguero, 2B
2. Connor Joe, LF
3. Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B
4. Miguel Andújar, RF
5. Jack Suwinski, CF
6. Henry Davis, DH
7. Jared Triolo, 1B
8. Alika Williams, SS
9. Jason Delay, C
And for Aaron Boone's Yankees:
1. DJ LeMahieu, 1B
2. Aaron Judge, RF
3. Gleyber Torres, 2B
4. Giancarlo Stanton, DH
5. Austin Wells, C
6. Anthony Volpe, SS
7. Oswald Peraza, 3B
8. Oswaldo Cabrera, LF
9. Estevan Florial, CF
THE SCHEDULE
The Pirates will embark on their final road trip of the season Tuesday with a three-game set against the Cubs. First pitch is set for 7:40 p.m. Eastern. I've got the first two legs of this three-city trip.
THE MULTIMEDIA
THE CONTENT
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