It cannot and will not be overstated that there are rising expectations for Kenny Pickett as he enters his second NFL season and will have the handle of the starting quarterback position from the onset.
Pickett is a popular pick among analysts to become a breakout player in 2023. A simple Google search will immediately turn up analysis from NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, and CBS Sports, which are among the national outlets that agree with that sentiment about last year's Steelers first-round selection.
If that happens, Pickett will also need his supporting cast to deliver. George Pickens is another darling pick for a potentially big season, Diontae Johnson will in all likelihood catch a touchdown this season, and Calvin Austin and Darnell Washington will be welcomed additions to help spread the field far and wide.
But, if Pickett's projected ascent is to come to fruition, a major catalyst in play is the continued rise of Pat Freiermuth among the league's best tight ends.
Freiermuth's 98 targets was second-most to Johnson's 147 among Steelers pass catchers and were tied for fifth among NFL tight ends in 2022. His 732 receiving yards were sixth-most among tight ends and his 11.6 yards per catch were tied for third among tight ends who caught at least 60 passes last season.
However, there was some meat left on the bone for Freiermuth, even while the Steelers experienced a change of quarterback during the Week 4 game against the Jets as Pickett took over for Mitch Trubisky.
It begins with catch percentage.
Freiermuth caught just 64.3% of his targets to finish 24th among tight ends, according to data from StatMuse. That was the lowest mark among the six tight ends who were targeted as much or more than Freiermuth's 98 times.
Travis Kelce hauled in 110 of his 152 targets for a 72.4% rate. T.J. Hockenson caught 66.7% of his 129 targets through his time in Detroit and Minnesota, Mark Andrews brought in 64.6% of his 113 targets, Tyler Higbee caught 66.7% of his 108 targets, and Evan Engram pulled in 74.5% of his 98 targets last year. Only one tight end caught more than 80% of his targets last season: Seattle's Will Dissly, who brought in 34 of his 38. Among those in the top 10 in catch percentage, only Engram, Kelce, and David Njoku (72.5%) were targeted 80 or more times.
So, the volume is there for Freiermuth to extend into that "elite" category of tight ends, even though he was outside of the top 10 among his position in pass snaps played last year. Freiermuth's bread and butter is thriving as a pass catcher, and with the addition of Washington as the bruising blocker to go alongside Zach Gentry, with Connor Heyward testing out as an H-back-slash-fullback-slash-tight end this season, and with Calvin Austin joining the fray after missing all of last season, Freiermuth's usage will surely evolve just as the offense is expected to.
But, a closer look at where Freiermuth could be positioned for his own breakout shows he could be more effective as a slot receiver.
Having Washington as an in-line tight end will allow Freiermuth to move into the slot more frequently, and he was among the league's best in that spot in 2022. Per Pro Football Focus, Freiermuth was third among tight ends in receptions (28) and receiving yards (375) from the slot, his 2.22 slot yards per route run were second to Kelce's 2.39, and his grade of 78.3 from slot and screen passes was fourth to Kelce, Njoku, and George Kittle.
Matt Canada wants to run the football this season, as he said during minicamp. That will include the usage of Pickett's mobility, the screen game, and safety valves to help the short-yardage passing game and open opportunities for the running game. The 24-year-old Freiermuth is more than just a safety-valve tight end and should be a valuable contributor so long as the offense improves as it is supposed to.
