If the Steelers want to be the aggressive, run-first offense that Matt Canada envisions it being, then one of their primary points of success has to come from the framework built by Najee Harris.
In his second season, the former first-round pick rushed for 1,034 yards (3.8 per carry) with seven touchdowns. His yardage total was down from his Pro Bowl 2021 season in which he rushed for 1,200 yards, but Harris tallied about the same yards per carry (3.9 in 2021) while ceding carries. He had 35 more carries as a rookie, and a bit of an explanation as to why he received fewer in 2022 can be attributed to his dealing with a Lisfranc sprain and playing part of the season with a metal plate in his shoe, giving way to an emerging Jaylen Warren in the process.
But, from an analytical perspective, Harris left some yards on the table, and a deeper dive shows that a tuneup to his running style -- coupled with a more eloquently designed offense that can help get him into space -- could help benefit him in his third season.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Harris was one of the least efficient carriers in the league last season. The tracking in 2022 reveals his rushing efficiency checking in at a 4.2, or tied for fifth worst in the NFL among players with at least 90 attempts. Next Gen Stats measures efficiency as "calculated by taking the total distance a player traveled on rushing plays as a ball carrier according to Next Gen Stats (measured in yards) per rushing yards gained" and "the lower the number, the more of a North/South runner."
The NFL leader in efficiency, by this metric, was the Panthers' Chuba Hubbard at 3.18. The least efficient, with a minimum of 90 attempts, was the Jets' Michael Carter at 4.73. Harris' efficiency mark was significantly down from his rookie year, when he checked in a 3.97 yards rushed per yard gained.
So, Harris had to work harder to gain one yard than all-but four running backs in the NFL in 2022. This can hardly coincide with how much time Harris actually spent behind the line of scrimmage, whether it be from taking the handoff or waiting for the play in front of him to develop. Next Gen Stats reveals Harris averaged 2.72 seconds behind the line of scrimmage on his rushing plays, which tied for 11th fastest in the league and was 0.19 seconds slower than Hubbard, the league leader at 2.53 seconds. Harris' 2022 mark in average time behind the line of scrimmage improved from his rookie season by 0.05 seconds.
From an analysis perspective, Harris is and was able to grab the ball and get ahead of his line of scrimmage in a timely fashion. This levels off to his nearly equal total yards per carry between his rookie and second seasons.
But, there was one significant change to how opposing defenses prepared for him. In his rookie season, defenses stacked eight or more defenders in the box 14.66% of the time, per Next Gen Stats. That figure was the 10th-lowest in the NFL for the 2021 season and helped contribute to a minus-0.16 rushing yards over expected per attempt.
That changed drastically in his sophomore campaign. Opposing defenses stacked the box with eight or more defenders against him 25.37% of the time, the 12th-highest mark in the league for those with 90 or more carries. As a result, his rushing yards over expected per attempt nearly doubled -- the wrong way -- down to minus-0.30.
Here is where all of that comes to an ugly head, from an analytical perspective: With a minimum of 90 carries in the 2022 season, Harris was last in the NFL in total rushing yards over expected, at minus-81. In 2021, that figure was at minus-48, 11th-worst in the league.
To say Harris left yards on the field last season, as evidenced by the lack of yardage over expected, wold be an understatement. RYOE is calculated as, by definition, "the difference between actual rushing yards and expected rushing yards on an individual play or series of plays." The expected rushing yards on a given play takes into account of how many rushing yards a carrier is expected to gain on a given carry based on the relative location, speed, and direction of blockers and defenders.
Knowing the Steelers were going to run the ball often -- they did so 45.1% of the time last season, up from the 36.6% in 2021 -- gave defenders the green light to key in on Harris, which stood to benefit throughout the course of the regular season as the Steelers finished 16th in the league in rushing. Yes, they were ninth in the league in rushing from the bye onward, but Harris' 4.10 yards per carry post-bye were hardly an improvement from the 3.8 he averaged through the entirety of the season.
Canada is intent on running the football with a healthy Harris and with Warren to give him a breather, but the continued evolution of Kenny Pickett coupled by finding ways for Harris to become more complete as North/South runner will be concepts to monitor into the 2023 season.
