It might seem nuts now, but not all that terribly long ago, Roansy Contreras and Oneil Cruz hit town at the same time, on the same trajectory and with the same titanic expectations.
Remember that? Two whole years ago?
Yeah. About that ...
Oh, my.
And for Contreras alone on this Wednesday matinee at PNC Park, there'd be nine batters faced, one out recorded, seven runs, six hits, two walks, all against an opponent that's off to Major League Baseball's worst start since 1904 at 14-50 while also ranking last in literally every offensive category of worth. His fastball, which flamed through the zone at velocities approaching triple-digits in the minors, sat at 94 mph. His slider, which has become his parachute pitch, was as flat as it was predictable. His changeup and curve weren't even summoned until after the seventh batter.
Worse by far, this was a surprise to precisely no one.
To the extreme that Derek Shelton had informed both Contreras and Luis Ortiz in the morning that the latter starter would be available in a spring-like piggyback role in the event of emergency.
To the extreme that, when Shelton had to break that glass 20 minutes after the national anthem, Contreras was roundly booed by the 14,550 on hand, many of whom no doubt were part of the rousing ovations amid his -- and Cruz's -- welcome-to-the-bigs final week of the 2021 season.
To the extreme that, when I'd ask Shelton afterward what's next for Contreras, he'd begin with the three most unsettling words of all:
"I don't know," were those words. "Learning experience here. We have to sit down and talk about it. We go 0-2 to the first hitter, we walk him, we don’t execute with two strikes, he didn’t execute the breaking ball today ... I don’t think we were gonna let him go over 40 or 45 pitches. As not sharp as he was, that made the decision."
The hook came at 38 pitches.
Is it now about finding out who he is again?
"It’s finding out who he is and finding out what the pitch execution is. Because today there wasn’t pitch execution."
Back to the bullpen, as had been the plan out in Seattle a few days ago until Vince Velasquez was hurt again?
"I don’t think we’ve made that decision yet," Shelton would reply to that before referencing the Pirates' next five days. "We have the off-day, then we have the Mets for three and another off-day. We can figure it out. After that, we have a stretch of 17 or 18 in a row, and we’re not going to be able to go without a starter. We’ll sit down and talk about it."
Sounds like a skipped turn for Contreras at the very least, or another relegation to relief, or ... the minors? With top pitching prospect Quinn Priester having coincidentally-or-not lined up to start on this same day for Class AAA Indianapolis?
All that's certain is that the trend's no longer Contreras' friend:
• April: 3-1, 3.58 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 24 Ks, 12 BBs
• May: 0-3, 5.18 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 12 Ks, 11 BBs
• June: 0-1, 24.92 ERA, 3.96 WHIP, 7 Ks, 2 BBs
Overall, he's 3-5 with a 5.91 ERA, a 1.54 WHIP, and a .284 opponents' batting average. Which is akin to having Andrew McCutchen being every batter he sees.
So, what's wrong?
I'll put forth three possibilities, while also allowing that all three might be in play:
1. NO HEAT
I'm no Spin Williams, but I've covered this franchise for nearly two full decades now, and I've learned/experienced enough to know that this is what it looks like when a fastball pitcher suddenly loses either the zip or the command of his fastball.
I could swarm this next paragraph with statistics, but here's all anyone needs to know: In 2022, he had a 17.9% whiff rate on his fastball. Plain and simple, that's the percentage of times a hitter would swing and miss at that pitch. His current rate is 9.1%. To pile on, opponents are batting .392 against the fastball, fifth-worst among all regular starters in the majors. Which is akin to ... wow, a resurrected Ted Williams being every batter he sees?
The zip and the command is something of a cart-vs.-horse call, considering that management still feels that Contreras has willfully stripped some heat to prioritize putting it where he wants. But if these are the pitch results at the lower velocity, then what's the point?
2. GIVING UP?
I mean, I'm not sure how else to characterize that this was the pitch selection on this day:
BASEBALL SAVANT
That's a fastball forfeit. That's letting everyone in the facility know, including the entire Oakland lineup, that they're either going to see a slider that doesn't require their swing, or they're about to be served a meatball.
In 2022, Contreras threw his fastball 48.5% of the time. Now, it's 41.8%, compared to 43.9% for the slider.
That's ... alarming.
Is Oscar Marin needlessly holding back Contreras' velocity? Did management screw up by sending him to Indianapolis last summer in a clear attempt to manipulate his service time, on top of the understandable wish to manage his innings? Is he hurt? Or is this all mechanical?
Nobody has these answers. Nobody. I've asked everyone in sight, including the athlete himself. He swears his arm's fine. He swears he's capable of throwing harder.
3. HE'S EATING HIMSELF UP
Here's where it gets intangible. And maybe just a little personal.
This is a wonderful young man. I've gotten to know him as well as I know anyone in that clubhouse. He's having an awful time. He's trying to hide it, as he did again after this, the lowest point of his baseball life, but he's not always succeeding.
I hate to see this with anyone. Just hate it.
Purely from the baseball perspective, though, this isn't just another player. This is someone who arrived in Pittsburgh as a special prospect and, yeah, a special person. And this franchise needs to make him the No. 1 priority right now, both for him and for the organization.
Answer me this: Why, if all concerned thought he'd benefit from moving to the bullpen while out in Seattle, was there a 180 on that just because Velasquez went down again? What was the priority there? To set Contreras back on a solid track, or to avoid calling up Priester from the minors because of potential Super-2 arbitration savings years from now?
Don't give me that look. Don't get squeamish. It's a fair question, given management's history of Super-2 above all.
After Contreras' highly effective two-inning relief showing in Seattle, the kid was beaming. He said to me, "Did you see 97? Huh?"
I saw. I'm assuming Ben Cherington and staff saw, as well. But they still wouldn't promote Priester and instead plopped Contreras right back into the rotation for the two setback starts that followed.
Honestly, I don't care much if Contreras winds up a starter or reliever. To be sure, he'll need more than two consistent pitches to flourish as the former. But I do care about seeing him become the best pitcher he can be, and I'll be damned if that won't involve a fastball that climbs back into the high 90s.
What turned Mitch Keller around?
He was taught to throw 100 by people outside the Pirates' employ, showed up in Bradenton with a big-man-on-campus swagger, then channeled that into all the confidence he'd need to become a complete pitcher.
Is that where Contreras should go? To that same pitching academy in North Carolina?
Because this, my friends, isn't him:
"It’s always hard," he'd reply when I asked about keeping his chin up. "Especially at this point in my career, it's hard to go through that. But we all know as players, we’re going to go through those moments. Just face them and move forward."
And what went wrong this time?
"For some reason today, it was hard for me to get into a rhythm. I felt like my body wasn’t connected to my arm, and it was hard for me to make pitches."
What's changed since April?
"It’s been tough this year to find myself on the mound, but I’m going to continue to work hard to do that and find myself and be the Roansy that I know I can be."
Roansy Day? Remember that, too? The social media meme as he was soaring up the minor-league ladder every time he'd take the mound?
I was joking with him about that just a few weeks ago, and he flashed the biggest smile in answering, "Every day is Roansy Day!"
It had better be that for the Pirates, too. Right bleeping now.
THE ESSENTIALS
• Boxscore
• Live file
• Standings
• Statistics
• Schedule
• Scoreboard
THE HIGHLIGHTS
THE INJURIES
• 15-day injured list: RHP Vince Velasquez (elbow)
• 60-day injured list: 1B Ji-Man Choi (Achilles), RHP Wil Crowe (shoulder), RHP JT Brubaker (elbow), SS Oneil Cruz (ankle), LHP Jarlin Garcia (elbow), RHP Max Kranick (elbow)
THE LINEUPS
Shelton's card:
1. Andrew McCutchen, DH
2. Bryan Reynolds, LF
3. Connor Joe, RF
4. Carlos Santana, 1B
5. Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B
6. Rodolfo Castro, SS
7. Mark Mathias, 2B
8. Ji Hwan Bae, CF
9. Jason Delay, C
And for Mark Kotsay's Athletics:
1. Ryan Noda, 1B
2. Seth Brown, RF
3. Brent Rooker, DH
4. Ramon Laureano, RF
5. Jace Peterson, 2B
6. Jonah Bride, 3B
7. Shea Langeliers, C
8. JJ Bleday, CF
9. Kevin Smith, SS
THE SCHEDULE
There's a day off Thursday, then a three-game weekend set here with the $364-million-mistake Mets.
THE MULTIMEDIA
THE CONTENT
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