BALTIMORE -- Duane Underwood Jr. left the changeup up and watched Cedric Mullins send it into the night to complete his cycle.
Tasked with trying to complete his second inning of the night and keep the deficit at one, Underwood was an out away from sending the Pirates into the ninth with a decent chance at a comeback, but he walked No. 9 hitter Terrin Vavra, setting up Mullins with a chance to be the hero. Suffice to say, he didn't miss:
That home run would wind up being the difference in the Pirates' 6-3 loss to the Orioles at Camden Yard Friday, their 10th loss in 11 games. Just under two weeks ago, the Pirates were 20-8, owners of the best record in the National League and playing their best baseball this side of 2015. With Friday's loss, they finally fell out of first place of the National League Central.
"It’s not for lack of effort," Underwood said. "Every day, these guys come in here, we’re working hard, we’re trying to get back on a roll here and get back to the spot we should be at."
The visitor's clubhouse was somber Friday night, as expected. There's still confidence that they will break out of this slump, and if they want to maintain their playoff odds, the sooner would be significantly better, and then some.
To be able to do that, they have to be able to identify what has gone wrong of late. Well, that's easy to identify.
WHERE HAVE THE QUALITY STARTS GONE?
The Pirates got off to that 20-8 start primarily with the start of their rotation, who picked up 18 quality starts as a group through the first 28 games. Only Mitch Keller has delivered a quality start since then in his complete game shutout on Monday.
Johan Oviedo's start Friday is probably the second best by anyone besides Keller in this losing streak, going 5-plus innings of one-run ball, but it wasn't exactly pretty to get there. He was effectively wild, walking five on the night. Looking at his release points for the game, it didn't look like he was as consistent as he had been earlier this year:
Five innings of one-run ball is still a big step in the right direction, and Oviedo looked more amped up at times than he has this season.
"I never try to prove [anything to] myself," Oviedo said. "Even when things are going bad or going well, I know what I've got and I've got to keep competing."
But his inability to go deeper into the game caused the Pirates to go to their middle-relief earlier, which would prove costly, as we'll touch on in a minute.
Omitting Keller's shutout, the Pirates' rotation has a 6.45 ERA in the 10 losses in this 11-game stretch. They're down Vince Velasquez for a bit, and Keller can only take one spot in the rotation. This isn't the only thing going wrong with the team, but it was the on-field catalyst for that hot start. The quality starts have been noticeably absent of late.
ARE THESE THE RIGHT MATCHUPS?
Call this point 1-A. The bullpen-focused companion to go with the rotation.
After taking a 2-1 lead on a Connor Joe home run in the top of the seventh, the Pirates went back to the bullpen, knowing the Orioles' lineup was about to turn over. The guy they went to was Rule 5 pick Jose Hernandez, who has been a very pleasant surprise thus far, but he has not pitched in a high leverage spot all year. The Orioles had two left-handers up first -- which didn't play out as planned because that's when Mullins picked up his double -- but it also put the rookie in a tough spot with Adley Rutschman up with the tying run on base. The Orioles' catcher came through, knotting the game up with a double.
"We wanted the left-on-left with Mullins," Derek Shelton said. "We wanted to flip Rutschman around. That was the three-hitter stretch he got."
Rutschman, a switch-hitter, had a slightly higher on-base percentage against southpaws entering the game, entering at a .409 clip compared to .396 batting left-handed.
The move almost felt like a 2021, 2022 decision Shelton would make. Throw the rookie into the deep waters of a leverage spot and see if they could swim. It's something you can do when you're well-below .500. It's another to do it when the team really needs a win. That playing of the left-on-left matchup over just going like a reliever like Underwood, Colin Holderman or Robert Stephenson did not turn out as planned.
MISTAKES ON THE BASES
In the top of the third, Ji Hwan Bae beat out an infield single, moved up to second on a wild pitch and then scored on a contact play when Jorge Mateo misfired on his throw home. It was an example of small ball and speed being the primary reason for a run being scrapped out.
In the top of the seventh, Bae once again found himself on first base, this time with two outs. He ran and was caught stealing on what was called an overslide, though replay seemed to indicate it was the wrong call. It didn't matter, though, because the Pirates had lost their challenge.
The question is should Bae have even been running? The reward for being safe would have been putting himself in scoring position for Austin Hedges, who is now hitting .138 with a .391 OPS. Is that the type of hitter you want to risk running into an out for?
This has become a more common occurrence of late. Teams know stealing bases is a big part of the Pirates' game, and they're adapting. The Pirates started 25-for-30 (83.3%) on stolen base attempts when I wrote about it for Mound Visit last month. They are 23-for-34 (67.6%) since then. The rule of thumb is that 75% mark is about the breakeven point for stolen bases to be worth it. For a team that now leads the majors in caught stealings, they're right on that line.
They haven't all been quality attempts, either. Bae has made the first and third out trying to steal third recently, perhaps the most egregious base running sin a player can make. Joe was caught stealing after Tucupita Marcano whiffed on a hit-and-run Wednesday and then homered, making that failed attempt hurt even more in what would finish as a one-run loss.
Stolen bases are going to continue to be a major part to this offense because they need to get more runners in scoring position. Speaking of which...
RUNNERS IN SCORING POSITION, AGAIN
The Pirates went 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position Friday, the one hit being Jack Suwinski poking one into right field in the ninth inning. That hit brought the tying run to the plate with nobody out, but Félix Bautista quickly retired Joe, Rodolfo Castro and Bae without much drama to stop the bleeding.
We've written about this plenty recently. The Pirates are 8-for-63 (.127) with runners in scoring position during this 11-game window. They entered Friday still leading the league in hitting with runners on second or third, but that really shows how steep and sudden this drop has been.
Unfortunately for the Pirates, this is one of those things that there is no clear way to fix it, other than continuing to get in those hitting situations and hope they get a break or something to jumpstart the lineup.
"That's been a question they've asked hitting coaches for 50 years," Shelton said. "I think I said one time when I was hitting coach that if I had the answer to that, I would quit my job, bottle it up and sell it to everybody.
"It's one ball that finds the grass, and all of a sudden you take a two-run lead and you make it a five-run lead... It's hard to quantify. It's also one of the hardest things to work on because you can't work on what your heartbeat does in [those] situations."
SHORTSTOP
That's it. Just shortstop.
The Pirates went into the year with only one truly proper shortstop on the roster in Oneil Cruz, and he is going to be out until August because of his ankle injury. Losing his bat creates a massive hole in the lineup, but perhaps ironically, it seems the Pirates could be missing his glove almost as much.
Cruz is not a great fielder, but he was taking great strides this year with infield coach Mendy Lopez and was becoming much more fundamentally sound. That hasn't been the case for his replacements at shortstop. Here is where the Pirates rank defensively at shortstop in many key defensive stats:
-9 Defensive Runs Saved (29th)
-6 Outs Above Average (T-29th)
9 errors (T-30th)
-5% Success Rate Added (T-29th)
They are at the bottom of just about every defensive metric worth mentioning. The expectations are straightforward: Just catch the routine ball. That hasn't been so routine. Most notably, there were two misplays by Castro that were the tipping points in the first two games of the Rays series, which kicked off this May slump in earnest.
Castro has been the primary shortstop in Cruz's absence, but Marcano got the nod Friday, something that's been a little more common of late. Castro pinch-hit for Marcano in the seventh inning and took his position in the field, again protecting a one-run lead. The first ball went right to him and he needed Carlos Santana to make a scoop to save him from an error.
With the score tied and two outs in the inning, Underwood appeared to get out of the jam with the runner on second, but Castro couldn't get a piece of what looked like a very makable play. Instead, Ryan Mountcastle's roller went out to center field to give the Orioles the lead for good:
Talking to Lopez last month, he said positioning was so important for Castro because the team knows he doesn't have a ton of range. A play like that shows that the lack of range can hurt more defensively than just making errors. In the postgame, I asked Shelton about why Castro is still getting those reps at shortstop. He answered by explaining they wanted to get Castro to bat right-handed against a southpaw in the seventh, but didn't address why Castro went out for the seventh rather than going to someone like Chris Owings, who is here primarily for his defense.
"We have to knock it down," Shelton said. "We have to knock down the ball Mountcastle hit, keep it in the infield. We didn’t do it."
CAN'T CATCH A BREAK
Ok, a sixth one, because it feels like this should be brought up. Sometimes this is self-inflicted, like Castro's recent errors or the team's mistakes on the basepaths. Sometimes it can be Joe making a sliding attempt at a ball down the line which, after review, was barely ruled fair and resulted in a leadoff triple. An inch or two the other way and it's a foul ball.
Or how about Mountcastle, the guy who hit that triple, coming in to score later in the inning on a Dauri Moreta breaking ball in the dirt that Hedges could block, but then not locate.
Or how about Bae being called out for oversliding the bag, something he might not have done upon further inspection.
Or how about Underwood just leaving a changeup just a few inches too high.
This has been as bad an 11-game stretch for the Pirates under Shelton's tenure. At least this one does come with the knowledge that they have rapidly put together stronger stretches than this team has had in years.
"It's a long season," Oviedo said. "We're not going to let three weeks or two weeks affect what we can do in the future. We're just going to keep competing and keep working hard."
THE ESSENTIALS
• Boxscore
• Live file
• Standings
• Statistics
• Schedule
• Scoreboard
THE HIGHLIGHTS
THE INJURIES
• 15-day injured list: RHP Vince Velasquez (elbow), Rob Zastryzny (elbow)
• 60-day injured list: 1B Ji-Man Choi (Achilles), RHP Wil Crowe (shoulder), RHP JT Brubaker (elbow), SS Oneil Cruz (ankle), LHP Jarlin Garcia (elbow), RHP Max Kranick (elbow)
THE LINEUPS
Shelton's card:
1. Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B
2. Bryan Reynolds, LF
3. Andrew McCutchen, DH
4. Carlos Santana, 1B
5. Jack Suwinski, CF
6. Connor Joe, RF
7. Tucupita Marcano, SS
8. Ji Hwan Bae, 2B
9. Austin Hedges, C
And for Brandon Hyde's Orioles:
1. Cedric Mullins, CF
2. Adley Rutschman, C
3. Anthony Santander, DH
4. Ryan Mountcastle, 1B
5. Adam Frazier, 2B
6. Austin Hays, LF
7. Gunnar Henderson, 3B
8. Jorge Mateo, SS
9. Kyle Stowers, RF
THE SCHEDULE
Game two is set for Saturday, weather permitting. Roansy Contreras (3-3, 4.74) will try to right the ship against Tyler Wells (2-1, 3.15). First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. I've got you covered from Camden Yards.
THE MULTIMEDIA
THE CONTENT
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