This one wasn't on Mike Sullivan.
The next one should be.
Look, I might've been tiptoeing around some truths regarding the Penguins over this 2022-23 NHL season, if only because, to the inestimable credit of these players and their coaching staff, they've done more than their share of winning at 19-10-6. Eighth-best in the league. Probably better than most had anticipated from the oldest roster this side of Albertan beer league.
And yet, it also couldn't have escaped attention that this team's been so mercurial that the margin between losing seven in a row or tearing apart contenders for several weeks in a row or ... oh, hey, setting fire to a four-freaking-goal lead in falling to the Red Wings, 5-4 in overtime, on this Jake Walman walkoff Wednesday night at PPG Paints Arena ...
... barely has any discernible delineation to it. It's not even a line so much as a blur. The script can be flipped, from one week to the next, one shift to the next, with such ease that almost any label can apply.
Are they contenders after taking points from 12 of the league's top 13 teams, including nine wins?
Sure they are!
But in the same breath, how can they be as abysmal as the Tuesday debacle on Long Island, as non-competitive as they've been specifically against speed/possession opponents such as the Hurricanes and Maple Leafs, as prone as they've been broadly to blowing big leads, giving up early goals and allowing far too many shots?
Better question, maybe: Why's it seem, throughout all this, as if nothing's changed?
Well, it's time that it does.
Let's start by tossing out the tiptoeing: Brian Dumoulin needs to be scratched. And I'm talking Friday night, when the surprising Devils come to town.
They're another of those speed/possession opponents, and it should terrify Sullivan and his staff to anticipate any Jack Hughes rush that'll come down Dumoulin's side. That alone should be reason enough. But earlier on this same day, management promoted another lefty defenseman, Ty Smith, from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, and deservedly so. The kid's a former first-rounder, he can fly, and he creates offense in his afternoon naps. And for anyone into intangibles, he'd also make his season's NHL debut against the organization that gave up on him in the John Marino trade.
Oh, there's also this: Dumoulin can't play anymore.
That sounds mean. It's not intended to be. From Sidney Crosby to Carter Rowney to Eric Fehr, I'll forever respect all of the contributions to those Stanley Cups in San Jose and Nashville. And I'll respect Dumoulin's more than most. As I'd written from those two scenes and beyond, his role was more prominent than most will ever know, on or off the ice.
Today, he's the team's worst defenseman.
And again, that's not mean. It's right there in front of everyone, whether in data form -- he's been on the ice for a team-high 161 high-danger chances against, 25 more than anyone else -- or by tracking all his giveaways or by tracking all his incomplete outlets.
Or simply by using one's own eyeballs on Detroit's first two goals this evening:
Not pictured on the sequence just above was that, seconds earlier, Dumoulin had a chance at an easy clear and instead gifted the puck to Ben Chiarot, Detroit's left point man.
Wait, there's one more:
At no point does he impact the play in any way. He's not even a minor hindrance. Whereas Jan Rutta at least attempted something by going hard at Michael Rasmussen with his back to the play. And thus, all Rasmussen had to do to set up David Perron for the tying goal was to pass through the Penguins' worst defenseman and their worst defensive forward.
And speaking of Jeff Carter ...
There aren't a handful of things I'll write in my lifetime that'll look dumber than ripping a guy on a night he gets a goal and an assist. But the former came on the power play, and his problems are far more about his inability to keep pace in the defensive zone, as spelled out by being on the ice for 122 high-danger chances against, most of any forward. And when it comes to generating a share of expected goals or shots, he's ranked 19th of the 20 forwards who've laced 'em up this season.
The eyeballs are effective here, too:
They won't be renaming that maneuver in Patrice Bergeron's honor.
Not pictured on the sequence just above: Carter got cleaned on the draw that led to that goal, all of 11 seconds after the penalty.
And to see him deployed, time and again, in settings that would've been worthwhile even just a couple years ago ... over, say, Rickard Rakell ... boggles the mind. It even happened in the three-on-three overtime, as he was on the rink while Rakell rotted on the bench.
Here's how that went:
That's not photoshopped. That might be the easiest anyone's been blown off the puck along a wall in three-on-three history. At any level of hockey. Never mind that it was Perron, not exactly the sport's premier physical force.
It makes no sense. It needs to stop.
Dumoulin and Carter aren't why the Penguins lost this one. I'm not an idiot. Something this spectacularly atrocious takes all 19 and, as Jan Rutta told me, "This sucked. This was on all of us."
And yet, none of this related to Dumoulin and/or Carter is new. They've performed like this for many months, going back to the 2021-22 season, and they're still bottoming out. More with each week, it feels like.
The team can survive one or both. It can achieve occasional success, even nice little runs like the recent one. But it won't win when it counts with one or both being utilized as they are. It just won't. And that reality's got to start hitting Sullivan, Ron Hextall, Brian Burke and everyone involved a whole hell of lot harder than it apparently has to date.
To repeat, scratch Dumoulin. Sit him for a while. Have him and Todd Reirden try to reconstruct his game, as Reirden's done with so many others. And in the interim, let Smith fly around and show what he has -- or hasn't -- learned about the back end through his own project period in Wilkes-Barre. There's no risk, no harm in doing this, particularly given who he's replacing.
As for Carter, that's a little more layered. Move him to the right wing, where the Kings had him before the trade and where he's got a lot less defensive responsibility. If his faceoffs are valued, he's free to slide in and out of the circle. But pretending it's still a decade ago ... come on.
This can be a very good team. A contender, even. For everything.
But the management and coaches have got to get over irrational loyalty in the face of overwhelming evidence, and my belief is that this would have to begin with Sullivan. He loves his vets. He loves his leaders. He really loves his ring-bearing champions. And that just can't continue unrequited.
Also, and at least somewhat related, the management and coaches have got to get over this notion that they'll have three scoring lines. When three aren't needed. What's needed -- and I'd hope this is more glaringly obvious than ever on a night like this -- is a bottom-six that can hammer home a counter-signal when things aren't going well. The way Teddy Blueger, Brandon Tanev and Zach Aston-Reese could. They weren't perfect, but with a lead, they'd pile-drive an opponent deep in their zone for one shift, get a brief breather on the bench, then be right back out for more.
Who's doing that on this roster?
Blueger's missing both of his current wingers, Ryan Poehling and Josh Archibald, to injury, but they weren't at that level beforehand. And third line centered by Carter is ... I mean, what's it even supposed to be?
There's ample talent on the top six, plenty enough to satisfy even-strength scoring. But the bottom six needs to undergo the full conversion that'd been suggested by Sullivan, Hextall and others in the organization over this past summer, when they spoke openly about hoping to be "harder to play against," as Sullivan often puts it.
I reminded Sullivan of that after this game, and this was his reply:
"I think you can become hard to play against so many different ways," he replied. "For me, the most important thing that needs to happen is teams that are hard to play against don't beat themselves. If you're going to get beat, it's going to be because the team brings a tremendous effort and pays a significant price to beat you. That's rule No. 1. We can't beat ourselves. And when you look at the last few games, we're beating ourselves in a lot of ways. Give our opponents credit, not to take anything away from them. But I look at the way the games have played out, and I just think the standard is higher, and none of us are living up to it, myself included."
Clarifying, he'd add, "For me, one of the easiest ways to beat yourself is to mismanage the puck, or not manage the game. When you're careless with your puck possession, you feed your opponent's transition. We use the phrase 'easy offense.' When we're handing teams easy offense, it's hard to win that way. In my experience, if you mismanage the puck you can't win. Not consistently, anyway."
No argument here. Though I'd welcome seeing more of the grit of the old Blueger line, puck management's a massive priority.
So then, why stick by the two worst skaters on the roster when it comes to this priority?
See, this is where Sullivan's got to break a bit of his own mold if he and the Penguins are to ever escape the first round again. When he watches Drew O'Connor wreak havoc on a human forecheck to set the stage for his own goal, he's got to be craving for more, rather than sending him back out for a grand total of seven additional shifts all night. When he singles out Smith for praise, as he did repeatedly through training camp, he's got to back it up with a bona fide opportunity.
And when he's withstood enough of what he knows is hurting his team, he's got to buck up and make the hard calls.
THE ESSENTIALS
• Boxscore
• Live file
• Scoreboard
• Standings
• Statistics
• Schedule
THE HIGHLIGHTS
THE THREE STARS
As selected at PPG Paints Arena:
1. Jake Walman, Red Wings D
2. Jason Zucker, Penguins LW
3. David Perron, Red Wings RW
THE INJURIES
• Ryan Poehling, left winger, has a lower-body injury and was placed on injured reserve Wednesday
• Josh Archibald, right winger, has a lower-body injury and was placed on injured reserve Wednesday
• Jeff Petry, defenseman, has a wrist injury and is on long-term injured reserve
• Chad Ruhwedel, defenseman, has an upper-body injury and missed his first full game to that
THE LINEUPS
Sullivan's lines and defense pairings:
Jake Guentzel-Sidney Crosby-Rickard Rakell
Jason Zucker-Evgeni Malkin-Bryan Rust
Brock McGinn-Jeff Carter-Danton Heinen
Drew O'Connor-Teddy Blueger-Kasperi Kapanen
Marcus Pettersson-Kris Letang
Brian Dumoulin-Jan Rutta
P.O Joseph-Mark Friedman
And for Derek Lalonde's Red Wings:
Michael Rasmussen-Dylan Larkin-David Perron
Adam Erne-Andrew Copp-Lucas Raymond
Oskar Sundqvist-Pius Suter-Dominik Kubalik
Jonatan Berggren-Joe Veleno-Elmer Soderblom
Ben Chiarot-Moritz Seider
Jake Walman-Filip Hronek
Olli Maatta-Jordan Oesterle
THE SCHEDULE
There'll be a practice Thursday, 12 p.m., in Cranberry, then another game back here the following night against the Devils ... and then it's off to the Winter Classic in Boston.
THE MULTIMEDIA
THE CONTENT
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