Halicke: Steelers' ceiling could be familiar territory for Smith

Arthur Smith became one of the more prominent offensive coaches in the NFL during his run as the Titans' offensive coordinator in 2019-2020. The 2019 team, in particular, shocked the league by going 9-7 and making it all the way to the AFC Championship Game.

It's still too early to forecast it, but the Steelers are on a similar track.

To be fair, especially right off the bat, that is probably the ceiling for this Steelers team -- a trip to the AFC Championship Game that likely ends with a loss to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. When I say ceiling, I mean the best possible outcome. At this point in time, I don't see enough evidence yet to convince me that this team can really make a run at a Super Bowl.

Don't get me wrong, it'd be a really cool story. The franchise celebrated its 50th anniversary of Super Bowl IX, the first championship in its history. And, it was played in New Orleans, which just so happens to be the location of this season's Super Bowl. But, we have yet to see the Steelers play the much tougher half of their schedule, which isn't quite as daunting as once thought prior to the season, but will still have its brutal challenges. 

However, looking back on everything that's played out over the course of the first eight games, it's hard to not see the similarities between this Steelers team and the 2019 Titans, especially on the offensive side of the ball. And, that's really the true game-changer for this team. The defense is, for lack of an actual adjective, the defense. They're not perfect, but will be spectacular every now and then and keep scoring within control. That's been the blueprint on that side of the ball for multiple seasons now.

However, if the offense takes off, that's what can elevate this team. That could be the difference between yet another first-round exit and playing games deep into January.

First, let's start with Derrick Henry. A lot of people want to discredit Smith's credibility by saying he benefited from Henry being King Henry. The fact is Henry didn't break out until this 2019 season, which was his fourth in the NFL. He had only one 1,000-yard season and averaged no more than 66.2 yards per game prior to 2019. Then, he broke out with 1,540 rushing yards and 16 rushing touchdowns, both of which led the NFL in 2019, and averaged 5.1 yards per carry.

But Henry, as with the rest of the offense, didn't get going until after the first six weeks of the season. The Titans were 2-4 through their first six games, and Henry was putting up pedestrian numbers. He carried the ball 113 times for 416 yards and four touchdowns, averaging just 3.68 yards per carry. 

After a shutout loss to the Broncos in Week 6, Henry's numbers skyrocketed. Over the final 10 games of the season, Henry carried the ball 190 times for 1,124 yards and 12 touchdowns, averaging an astounding 5.92 yards per carry. That's the King Henry everyone remembers.

What's really ironic about that Titans team and this Steelers team is a quarterback change was made after the first six games of the season. Marcus Mariota started the first six games of the season for Tennessee in 2019, but then changed to veteran quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Prior to the quarterback change, the Titans averaged 290.5 total yards per game. Afterward, they averaged 406.2 total yards per game. Scoring saw a drastic change, too, as they jumped from averaging 16.3 points per game to 30.4 after switching to Tannehill.

The Steelers' season has played out in a very similar fashion. Over the first six games with Justin Fields, the offense averaged 20.7 points per game. Since switching to Russell Wilson -- granted, it's a two-game sample size -- that's jumped to 31.5 points per game. Similarly, the offense averaged 293.3 total yards per game with Fields, and have averaged 417.5 yards with Wilson.

Najee Harris' jump in both production and efficiency is comparable to the jump Henry had with the Titans. Over the first six games, Harris averaged 3.92 yards per carry, but in the two games since, he's averaged 5.4 yards per carry. If the stats are split between the first five games and the last three games, the jump is even more significant, as Harris went from averaging 3.29 yards to 5.96 yards.

This brings the whole "dam breaking" idea into brighter context. The whole idea of it feeling like the dam was going to break came from Smith. His players were talking about it after the win in Denver. When Smith met with the media later in the week, he was made aware of his players echoing that sentiment, and replied, "That's good, they listen to me."

It's because Smith has witnessed this. He's coached this. He's alluded to that Titans team himself. He started off with an offense that centered around a strong running game with a quarterback who was more dangerous with his legs than with his arm. It started the same way for the Steelers this season. In that regard, Fields and Mariota are similar. For as good as Fields can be with his arm, he is more lethal with his legs. Defenses have to account for that.

And, just as the Titans' offense changed with Tannehill, who was mobile but could stretch the field with his arm, the same could be said for this version of Wilson. Defenses have to respect Wilson's ability to throw the ball down the field, which opens up possibilities in the running game.

Now, a two-game sample size is very small, and it would be foolish to think this is guaranteed to be a repeat of the 2019 Titans just because the offense was potent in those two games. That being said, the similarities are way too similar to ignore, especially when it's the same offensive coordinator.

And, it's also important to note that the quality of defense the Steelers face the rest of the way is worse than they faced in the first half of the season. Three of their first eight games were against top 10 defenses, including the Chargers' No. 1 defense. Two more currently rank in the top 15. Meanwhile, two of the final nine games currently rank in the top 10 (Chiefs, Eagles), the Commanders rank 11th, but are terrible against the run (29th), and the Browns, Bengals and Ravens rank 18th, 23rd and 25th, respectively.

Knowing what a Smith offense has done in the past is important for knowing what could play out now, especially when they appear to be on similar tracks. Again, I'm not saying this team is somehow bound for a place in the AFC Championship. But, Smith has been down this same road before. Only this time, instead of having a journeyman veteran, he's got a former Super Bowl champion at quarterback. 

And, I'm definitely not saying that Harris is about to have some sort of Henry break out. But, Henry broke out in his fourth season. And, well, Harris just happens to be in his fourth season, too. It's not out of the realm of possibility.

The Steelers have a lot to prove in order finish this season in any similar fashion to the way the Titans did in 2019. But, just knowing that this Steelers team is off to the same start in a lot of ways makes the second half of this season even more interesting.