Since Russell Wilson returned from his calf injury and took over the starting quarterback job, the Steelers' offense has taken off. His ability to throw the ball downfield has stretched defenses out, which is what Arthur Smith has wanted to do all along. And now, the addition of Mike Williams gives Wilson another legitimate downfield target.
Just in general, Wilson's objectively been one of the better quarterbacks in football since his return. Of the 39 quarterbacks that have played at least 100 snaps this season, Wilson ranks fourth in EPA (expected points added) per play, trailing only Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels and Josh Allen, respectively. He also has a respectable 2.6 completion percentage above expected (CPOE) and trails only Anthony Richardson with 10.0 average air yards.
Having that high of an EPA per play with that kind of average air yards really tells the story of just how good Wilson's been throwing the ball deep downfield. In Sunday's 28-27 win over the Commanders, Wilson connected on three big-time throws, according to Pro Football Focus. And in just three games, Wilson's been credited by PFF with six big-time throws and only one turnover worthy play, all while having a 10.8 average depth of target (ADoT).
For this week's Chalk Talk video break down, I wanted to look at deep balls for four different receivers and really break down what to look for on film. You can look at the data, and we will here shortly. But, it's also good to know what to look for and why the Steelers need to get Williams up to speed as quickly as possible:
Just from those four plays, it's easy to see that Wilson is still so good at throwing the deep ball, or his "moon ball" as many like to call it. And the reason it has that term, as I stated in the video, is because of the air he gets under it. It's simply a better trajectory for receivers, which is why it's so imperative that Williams and George Pickens be the recipients of these as often as possible. Van Jefferson and Calvin Austin III, while they've both caught downfield passes from Wilson, simply lack the consistency to connect on them. The film shows it.
Wilson's numbers throwing the ball deep downfield can't be argued with. When throwing 20-plus yards down field, Wilson's completed 8 of 15 passes (53.3 completion percentage) for 261 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. That's a passer rating of 110.4, which is tied with Jackson for eighth in the NFL. And, he's done this for nearly three games without a second legitimate downfield threat.
Williams' touchdown catch was his only target. That's understandable. He was just acquired on Nov. 4 and had less than a week to learn the playbook, game plan and execute it on the field. I expected his snap count to be low. But the quicker he can get more acclimated and increase his workload, the better. I asked Tomlin what that might look like moving forward, but unfortunately, he didn't provide any real timeline.
"I think that'll be continual, and I think it's reasonable to expect his workload to increase," Mike Tomlin said Tuesday during his press conference at the UPMC Rooney Sports Complex. "The rate in which it increases, and all of those things are determined by factors I really don't know the answer to. I'm still getting to know him and how he learns, and specifically, the detailed component of his skill set in terms of how to best utilize it and position him to help us. And so we'll be evolving in that way. He'll be evolving in that way, not only this week, but in the upcoming weeks."
Pickens is at a level few receivers can be. His exceptional body control and gigantic catch radius makes things very easy for Wilson. But, Williams has made a living with the Chargers on his ability to make contested catches downfield. And on his touchdown catch, he showed a great ability to track a ball, adjust his route accordingly and make a difficult catch.
This is exactly what I envisioned when Williams was acquired. Wilson's going to keep throwing that elite deep ball. Safeties have been shading over the top of Pickens all season, forcing the Steelers into having somebody else beat them.
Now, they have another downfield threat. Seeing how defenses adjust is going to be very interesting.
