The Steelers are off to a 3-0 start, and have a legitimate chance to go undefeated in September. The Colts are up next on the schedule and have some dynamic players that can get in the way of a perfect first month of the season. But, they also have some legitimate weaknesses that give this Pittsburgh team an opportunity to improve on their hot start.
Here's a snapshot of what Indianapolis brings into Week 4:
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Record: 1-2
Standing: Second, AFC South
Last result: Won over Bears, 21-16
THE TREND
The Colts entered the season coming off a 2023 campaign in which they finished 9-8, barely missing a playoff spot. Due to injuries, the Colts dealt with uncertainty and inconsistency at quarterback and running back, but still managed to be in the playoff picture in a loaded AFC. That's not easy to do, which created a lot of optimism for the team in 2024.
However, Shane Steichen's Colts aren't off to a very promising start in his second season as head coach, though their schedule hasn't been the easiest. The Colts dropped their first two games, losing to the Texans by two points in the season opener, then fell to the Packers in Week 2, 16-10. They bounced back in Week 3, beating Caleb Williams and the Bears, 21-16.
The Colts' offense currently sits in the middle of the pack, ranking 17th in both total offense and points per game. The defense ranks 14th in points allowed per game, but is second to last in the NFL in total defense, giving up 398.3 yards per game. Indianapolis also has a -2 turnover differential, only four teams have a worse mark in the NFL.
Despite being a flawed team, the Colts have strengths on both sides of the ball that can wreck the game for the Steelers.
THE QUARTERBACK
After being limited to just four games in 2023, Anthony Richardson has resumed his role as the franchise quarterback of the Colts. He got off to a promising start as a rookie, going 2-2 in those four games while putting up an 87.3 passer rating.
However, things have not gone so well for Richardson through the first three games of this season. He leads the NFL with six interceptions thrown and is completing just 49.3% of his passes. He's only throwing the ball 24 times per game, so being that inefficient has been stifling to the Colts' offense. His play's been wildly inconsistent, and he's missing some throws that NFL quarterbacks just can't miss:
— DK Pittsburgh Sports (@DKPSmedia) September 27, 2024
Richardson does, however, have a very big arm. He can complete just about any pass downfield at any moment. It's one of the reasons why the Colts, despite having a middle-of-the-pack offense and 24th-ranked passing game, rank third in the NFL with 6.3 yards per play. Only the Ravens and Packers have better marks.
And, of course, we can't talk about Richardson without mentioning his ability to run. He's elusive in the pocket and he can take chunks out of a defense on the ground. The Colts have some designed runs for him in their offense, so expect to see some of those. And, Richardson has rushed for 117 yards on 18 carries, an average of 6.5 yards per attempt with a long of 21 yards. The Steelers have to be aware of Richardson at all times. Fortunately, they play against Lamar Jackson twice a year, so they have some familiarity with defending such a quarterback.
The book seems pretty simple on beating Richardson. Make sure to spy him to limit his ability to scramble, but also create pressure. According to FantasyPoints.com, Richardson is 2 for 11 for 62 yards and one interception against the blitz. That's a passer rating of 41.3. Only Deshaun Watson and Bryce Young have worse numbers against the blitz.
THE OFFENSE
The Colts' offense not only begins but also completely relies on the running game. Fortunately for them, they have a healthy Jonathan Taylor in the backfield. He's easily the most dangerous player on this offense.
The last time Taylor was healthy, he led the NFL with 1,811 rushing yards and finished runner up for Offensive Player of the Year. That was in 2021, and Taylor has missed 13 games over the past two seasons due to injury. Thus, he hasn't been able to replicate that same type of performance.
However, he's off to a nice start this season. He's seventh in the NFL with 261 rushing yards and is averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Now, Taylor does benefit from running behind one of the better offensive lines in football, featuring four-time Pro Bowl center Ryan Kelly and three-time first team All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson. However, Taylor is showing the same traits this season that made him successful. His ability to stop, change direction and accelerate makes him a nightmare for defenses in between the tackles:
— DK Pittsburgh Sports (@DKPSmedia) September 27, 2024
The Colts have a couple nice weapons in the passing game. Michael Pittman Jr. is the No. 1 guy of the group, but defenses have clamped down on him so far. He's only got 11 catches for 88 yards through the first three games. Alec Pierce has reaped the benefits from extra attention going Pittman's way. He's the team's leading receiver, catching nine passes for 225 yards and two touchdowns. Adonai Mitchell hasn't done much of anything yet, but he's a talented rookie. Don't sleep on him.
So far, the Colts are an offense that lives and dies on the big play. As stated previously, they're third in the NFL in yards per play. However, the Colts rank dead last in time of possession, averaging just 21:33 per game. That makes for an inconsistent offense, but also a very, very tired defense.
THE DEFENSE
The strength of the Colts defense rests up front with two very good interior defenders in DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart. Those two can set the table for everyone else. Stewart's been a solid player for several years and Buckner is a former All-Pro. The problem is Buckner is on injured reserve with an ankle injury. That's a massive blow up front.
The Colts also have some pass rushers that could cause some issues for Justin Fields. Kwity Paye and Tyquan Lewis start on the edge, and both have already gotten to the quarterback this season. However, rookie Laiatu Latu has already been making plays and could be the Colts' best pass rusher by season's end. His tape last week against the Bears was very impressive (No. 97):
End zone cutup of Laiatu Latu's (97) arrival.
— Noah Compton (@nerlens_) September 23, 2024
Latu provided a team-high 7 pressures on 28 rushes (25% pressure rate) to go with his first strip-sack in the NFL. #Colts pic.twitter.com/s2f07empt6
However, the strength of the Colts' defense kind of stops there. Zaire Franklin is the quarterback of the defense as Mike linebacker, and he's got Jaylon Carlies and E.J. Speed on each side of him. Franklin and Speed play the vast majority of the snaps, but neither have done much of anything this season. The Colts aren't any stronger in the secondary. Jaylon Jones and Samuel Womack III start at outside cornerback with Kenny Moore II as their best cornerback, who plays mostly out of the slot, but Moore will be sidelined this week with an injury. Jones has two interceptions this season, but that's more of a result of Caleb Williams making terrible throws. In the two games prior to the win over the Bears, Jones had a 112.1 passer rating against. Julian Blackmon and Rodney Thomas II line up at safety, but those two definitely don't strike fear in offenses as some of the other safeties the Steelers have already faced.
The defense as a whole may be in the middle of the pack in terms of points against, but this is a flawed group. Yes, they held the Bears to 63 yards on the ground last week, as well as a 2.3 yards per carry. However, this same Colts defense was gashed for 213 rushing yards by the Texans and 261 rushing yards by the Packers. And, teams are converting 50% of their third downs against this defense, which is the fifth-worst mark in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Steelers rank seventh in third down conversion percentage. Maybe it's because the offense not holding onto the ball tires them out, but this defense is susceptible to lots of yards against, both on the ground and through the air.
Also, Malik Willis rushed for 41 yards on six carries against this defense, so maybe this is a week Fields can use his legs?
THE SPECIAL TEAMS
Matt Gay handles placekicking duties for the Colts. He's typically a very accurate kicker, making at least 93% of his field goal attempts in two of the previous four seasons. He made it to the Pro Bowl with the Rams in 2021. He's only 1 of 2 so far this season, and missed Week 1 due to a quadriceps injury. Rigoberto Sanchez is in his eighth season with the Colts, and he's averaging a career high 50.7 yards per punt this season. Anthony Gould has handled the majority of the kick and punt return duties this season, though Dallis Flowers has one kick return, too. And, Flowers had a big kick return against the Steelers in 2022, so he's worth an extra eye during kickoffs.
THE INJURY REPORT
• Kenny Moore II, CB (hip) -- Moore left last Sunday's game against the Bears with an injury and did not return. He followed that up by not practicing all week, and Steichen ruled him out of this upcoming matchup early Friday afternoon. Moore is the Colts' primary nickel cornerback. Chris Lammons is the backup.
• Kwity Paye, DE (quadricep) -- Same as with Moore, Paye left last Sunday's game against the Bears with an injury and did not return. He also did not practice all week and was ruled out by Steichen early Friday afternoon. Paye's absence paves the way for a higher snap count for rookie pass rusher Latu.
• Ryan Kelly, C (neck) -- Kelly popped up on the injury report Thursday and did not practice for the rest of the week. That is certainly a concern for the Colts' starting center. Kelly is officially questionable for the game. Should be not be able to go, Danny Pinter or Tanor Bortolini would step in.
• Braden Smith, OT (knee) -- Smith didn't practice Wednesday, fully practiced Thursday, then didn't practice on Friday. Missing two days of practice sure is interesting, especially since he'd be the primary one responsible for blocking T.J. Watt. He's officially questionable for Sunday. Should Smith be inactive, former Pitt Panther Matt Goncalves would be next in line at right tackle.
• Chris Lammons, CB (knee, ankle) -- Lammons didn't practice Wednesday or Thursday, but was able to return to practice as a full participant. With Moore out this week, Lammons figures to step up in his place, but must be medically cleared first. Lammons is officially questionable for Sunday.
• Tyquan Lewis, DE (calf, wrist) -- Lewis practiced fully on Wednesday, but didn't practice the rest of the week as he nurses two injuries. With Paye already ruled out, the Colts' depth on the edge is wearing thin. Lewis is officially questionable.
• Grant Stuard, LB (heel) -- Stuard practiced fully all week and carries no injury designation into the game, so he's cleared to play. Stuard is a depth linebacker.
Players on injured reserve:
* - designated to return
• *Samson Ebukam, DE (Achilles)
• *Cameron McGrone, LB (elbow)
• DeForest Buckner, DT (ankle)
• JuJu Brents, CB (knee)
• Ryan Coll, C (undisclosed)
• Wesley French, C (ankle)
• Daniel Scott, S (Achilles)
• Juwann Winfree, WR (undisclosed)
• Jelani Woods, TE (turf toe)
QUOTABLE
"Fields, he definitely seems very rejuvenated. He's been playing really great to start off this year, just very efficient. You can tell that with the confidence of the coaching staff and his teammates, his play is just elevated. You can just see him working through his reads, using his feet to make plays not only in the running game, but also in the passing game. Obviously, they have (George) Pickens, who's an extremely talented receiver in this league. They've got a tough running game. You know what comes with playing a Mike Tomlin coached team. It's going to be a fistfight. So, we've just got to be ready to go." -- Zaire Franklin on the primary concern with the Steelers' offense
"We do have to acknowledge that they're a great team. They have a great scheme over there, have great players. We all know that, but we don't know necessarily have any concerns. We feel like we can match up with anybody. So, we're just trying to play our offense and just execute play by play, not really thinking about who's on the other side." -- Anthony Richardson on his concern facing the Steelers defense
"When we're out there, our guys just have to go execute their jobs. And ultimately, for our guys, they ought to go play ball. Whatever the job is on that play, the job will be, but we sure kind of take pride in evaluating each defense that we play and the great players on the defenses that we play and trying to minimize their impact like you said. Easier said than done sometimes. Like I said, T.J.'s, a phenomenal player – has been for a long time, but we'll certainly have a plan for him." -- Offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter on facing T.J. Watt
"Yeah, no question. And, hopefully we get to steal a couple Terrible Towels. I might try to snatch one myself. We'll see." -- Franklin on expecting to see a lot of Steelers fans on Sunday