We live in an era where offense wins championships in the NFL. At least, that's what the perception is. And, there's no doubt that in today's game, having a high-powered offense with a franchise-caliber quarterback gives you a much better chance of hoisting a Lombardi Trophy.
Ah, screw it. Unless your quarterback's name is Patrick Mahomes, your chances are slim.
But, don't let anyone fool you into thinking that having a great defense can't get you deep into the playoffs and maybe, just maybe, have a puncher's chance of winning.
The Steelers' defense is off to a historic start, and it's a big reason why the team is a perfect 3-0. With Sunday's performance, they became the eighth team since the 1970 merger to allow less than 300 yards and 10 points or less in the first three games of a season. And, they are outclassing the rest of today's NFL in several defensive categories:
• Scoring defense: 8.7 PPG (1st)
• Total defense: 229.7 YPG (1st)
• Run defense: 71.3 YPG (T-2nd)
• Pass defense: 158.3 YPG (5th)
• Yards per play: 4.6 (T-4th)
• Passer rating against: 69.5 (5th)
• Third-down conversions against: 21.9% (1st)
• Red zone TD percentage against: 16.7% (1st)
• Takeaways: 5 (T-6th)
• Sacks: 9 (T-11th)
• Pressure percentage: 26.1% (12th)
• Blitz percentage: 18.5% (6th-lowest)
• Missed tackles: 11 (2nd-lowest)
• EPA per play: -0.252 (1st)
• Success rate: 37.7% (6th)
• Dropback EPA: -0.233 (4th)
• Dropback success rate: 40.2% (9th)
• Rush EPA: -0.285 (1st)
• Rush success rate: 33.3% (4th)
This defense is clicking on all cylinders right now, mainly because the defensive line is completely dominating up front, making easy work for all of the guys behind them on the second and third levels.
"I was talking to Cam (Heyward) the other day and I told him that I’ve never played behind a defensive line like this," Payton Wilson said Wednesday at the UPMC Rooney Sports Complex. "Those guys are not only taking up the whole offensive line but they’re making plays."
Now, here's some somber news for teams without an established franchise quarterback: If you were to go through all of the teams that won the Super Bowl, roughly 75% of them had a quarterback that is already in the Hall of Fame or had one that undoubtedly will earn a gold jacket upon eligibility. That includes the likes of Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and, yes, Mahomes, too. Those guys will undoubtedly earn their place in Canton one day.
And, as promising as Justin Fields' performance has been through the first three weeks of the season, it's not quite time to anoint him as the next undisputed franchise quarterback. If he continues on this trajectory, then maybe the Steelers found one. That would greatly increase their chances of competing. Quarterback is and always has been the ultimate game-changer in this game.
But, there is a way to win, or at least be competitive, without having a franchise quarterback. If a team doesn't have one, the most likely way for them to defy the odds and win it all is with great defense.
You can go back through the history of the game and find it time and time again. The 1985 Bears won with Jim McMahon. The 2000 Ravens had Trent Dilfer. The 2002 Buccaneers had Brad Johnson. The 2013 Seahawks had Russell Wilson, who may earn his place in the Hall of Fame one day, but that's not certain. You could even tap into the latter years of great quarterbacks when they were far beyond their prime such as Peyton Manning and look at the 2015 Broncos and see that team won because of defense. And, of course, who could forget the 2017 Eagles winning with Nick Foles at quarterback?
Despite the narrative that's constantly pushed throughout the game, there is still a belief in Pittsburgh that defense can win championships, even in an offensive-driven league. And, it's not too far off base.
"If you look around the league and you look at all the high-performance players that are on offense, all the money spent on offense, if you are a defense that can stop that or combat that or minimize that," Donte Jackson told me Wednesday, "you definitely have a chance at winning a lot of games."
Even in recent years, the teams that won the Super Bowl have benefited from or flat out relied on stout defensive play and likely don't win without it. Seven of the past 10 Super Bowl winners have had top-10 defenses, and the lowest any of the defenses ranked in points per game was 16th (2022 Chiefs). Just last season, the Chiefs had the league's second-ranked defense.
With the issues the Chiefs had at receiver all season, their chances of winning the Super Bowl in 2023 go way down if not for having a great defense. In fact, the Chiefs had just three games last season in which they tallied more than 400 yards of offense. For context, that's just one more than the Steelers, who had all kinds of issues on offense. Simply put, the Chiefs don't go 11-6 last season without a great defense. And if they don't go 11-6, considering the depth of the AFC, who knows how things play out. Maybe they get there anyway. And with Mahomes at quarterback, it's probably a good bet. But, thinking that defense didn't matter would be foolish.
It's also important to look at the teams that have gotten to the Super Bowl and lost. Specifically, here are the teams that lost to either Mahomes or Brady over the past 10 seasons, with their respective defensive rankings:
• 2023 49ers: 3rd
• 2022 Eagles: 8th
• 2020 Chiefs: 11th
• 2019 49ers: 7th
• 2018 Rams: 20th
• 2016 Falcons: 27th
• 2014 Seahawks: 1st
I think we can all agree that if Pete Carroll just gives the ball to Marshawn Lynch, the Seahawks rightfully win a second straight Lombardi. And, that defense deserved it. The Legion of Boom is one of the greatest defenses of all time. They were the top-ranked defense for four straight seasons. A second ring would have further solidified their legacy.
But, look at the defenses Brady beat in his later years (2014, 2016, 2018, 2020). Outside of that debacle by Carroll, Brady didn't see an elite defense. Mahomes, on the other hand, has beaten a top-10 defense in each of his three Super Bowl wins. And the lone defense he lost to, the 2020 Buccaneers, had the eighth-ranked defense.
Until there is a sure answer at quarterback, the Steelers' best chance to compete for a Super Bowl is with great defense. And, they've invested more money on that side of the ball than anyone else in the league. Not having to pay for a quarterback frees them up to do so, but it's also one of the reasons why Mike Tomlin's teams are usually never worse than .500 by the end of the season. Having a good defense keeps games within reach much more often, which creates a high floor.
Now, I'm not an idiot. I'm not saying if the Steelers end the 2024 season with the league's No. 1 defense, that they'll be able to go toe-to-toe with Mahomes and dash the Chiefs' hopes of a three-peat and fourth Super Bowl in six years. That would be most foolish.
But, with the way the NFL has played out in recent years, unless your team had either Brady or Mahomes at quarterback, you weren't winning. Seven of the last 10 Super Bowls have been won by those two. And, only two of the last 10 Super Bowls haven't had either Brady or Mahomes in it. These are two of the all-time greats. Just as it was a pain to try and win when Brady was playing, it's going to remain that way while Mahomes is playing.
But, two of the three teams that have won over the past decade have had top-five defenses. The 2015 Broncos and 2017 Eagles each had fourth-ranked defenses, while the Broncos were ranked No. 1 in total defense. And, even the 2021 Rams, who ranked 15th, had Aaron Donald, one of the best defensive tackles in the history of the game.
Again, winning without a franchise quarterback is the outlier. But, since the 1970 merger, every single decade has had multiple teams win the Super Bowl with a No. 1 defense:
• 1970s: Dolphins (1972, 1973), Steelers (1978)
• 1980s: Redskins (1982), 49ers (1984), Bears (1985)
• 1990s: Giants (1990), Packers (1996)
• 2000s: Ravens (2000), Buccaneers (2002), Patriots (2003), Steelers (2008)
• 2010s: Seahawks (2013), Patriots (2016)
We haven't seen a team win with a No. 1 defense this decade yet. And, chances are good that it'll happen at some point. Defenses are finding ways to counter offenses nowadays, and the numbers are proof of it. Through the first three weeks of the season, teams are averaging 21.2 points per game, the fifth straight year scoring has declined, and it's the lowest mark since 2006. And, over the same five-year span, passing yards per game have decreased from 240.2 to 201.2 this season.
It's only a matter of time before a team makes a run at a Lombardi with a dominant defense. Through the first three weeks of the season, the Steelers appear to have one of the league's best defenses. Should they stay healthy and if Fields continues to progress on this trajectory, this team may actually have a chance to win games in January.
