After months without it, NFL football returns tonight when the Chiefs host the Ravens to kick off the 2024 regular season. It's truly the best time of the year.
That also means the Steelers' season is set to begin in just three days when they travel south to open things up against the new-look Falcons. Thus, I feel obligated to provide some sort of prediction for how the Steelers will fare this season. But instead of just handing you a record with a couple of all-encompassing sentences explaining why, I'm going to break down this schedule month by month to better contextualize my rationale behind the number that will surely set the comments section ablaze, one way or another.
SEPTEMBER
• Week 1: at Falcons
• Week 2: at Broncos
• Week 3: vs. Chargers
• Week 4: at Colts
I don't like the matchup with the Falcons. They have a lot of weapons on offense and a quarterback in Kirk Cousins that can get them the football. In addition, they're a lot stronger on defense after the additions of Matthew Judon and Justin Simmons. They'll put the offensive line to the test, double George Pickens all day and have good enough safety play to limit Pat Freiermuth. Official prediction won't be in until Friday, but I'm expecting a loss in the opener.
Denver's never an easy place to play. However, this is still one of the more winnable games on the schedule. Their offense is very young and Bo Nix has a lot to prove as a Day 1 starter. Their defense isn't going to overly scare anyone either. A 1-1 start over the first two games on the road is very doable.
The home opener is against Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers. While I expect this team to be a tough game for anyone they face -- they'll be more physical under Harbaugh -- and Justin Herbert will keep them competitive on a weekly basis, I don't love this roster. It's not where it needs to be to compete in the AFC. It's not a lock, but it's a winnable game.
So is Indianapolis on the road in Week 4. Anthony Richardson can cause headaches for opposing defenses, but he's got a lot to learn still. However, this is a Colts team that dismantled the Steelers a season ago.
Either way, I'm predicting a split of the games in Weeks 3-4. But, stealing a game here could be massive. A 3-1 start could be a huge difference maker by the end of the season. However, there will be another opportunity to steal a win at the beginning of December. But for now, I'm sticking with my gut.
Month record: 2-2
Overall record: 2-2
OCTOBER
• Week 5: vs. Cowboys (Sunday Night Football)
• Week 6: at Raiders
• Week 7: vs. Jets (Sunday Night Football)
• Week 8: vs. Giants (Monday Night Football)
The Cowboys are a very good football team. Dak Prescott is heading into a contract year. They're loaded on both sides of the ball. Not an easy game whatsoever. Only questions mark to me is running back, but this will still be arguably the greatest test of this month.
The most winnable game on the schedule is Week 6 in Las Vegas. These are the types of games the Steelers can't lose. The Raiders might be the worst team in all of football. The Steelers proved last season they could go out west and win, even in Vegas. So, I'm going to chalk this up as a win.
The Jets could pose a serious problem. Aaron Rodgers might have enough left in the tank to make Breece Hall and the offense operate well enough to pair with one of the better defenses in the league. I'm predicting the Steelers split the home games between the Cowboys and Jets. Both are primetime games, and Mike Tomlin teams typically play well under the lights.
Speaking of prime time games, another game that needs to be an automatic win is the Monday Night game against the Giants ahead of the bye in Week 9. Tomlin excels on Monday nights, and the Giants have a terrible roster.
Month record: 3-1
Overall record: 5-3
NOVEMBER
• Week 9: Bye
• Week 10: at Commanders
• Week 11: vs. Ravens
• Week 12: at Browns (Thursday Night Football)
After the bye week, the Steelers have a favorable matchup on the road against the Commanders. Once again, I'm leaning on history. Under Tomlin, the Steelers are 13-4 with a +123 point differential following the bye week. That success has continued in recent years, too, as the Steelers are currently on a seven-game winning streak with a +62 point differential following the bye. And of the four losses, three of which were one-score games. I'm saying the Steelers win in the nation's capital to improve to 6-3.
AFC North play doesn't begin until Week 11 with a home game against the Ravens. This is one of the whole wild cards of the entire schedule. All of the divisional games are bunched together for Pittsburgh -- all six over the final eight weeks of the season. However, there's no question Tomlin has figured out how to coach against his divisional foes. This team went 5-1 against the AFC North last season, which wound up being the only division in 88 years to have each team finish above .500. The best division in the NFL by far, and Tomlin took a 2023 team that had a terrible offensive coordinator and shoddy quarterback play and went 5-1.
All of that said, I'm predicting a split among all three opponents. You just can't bank of 5-1 in this tough of a division every year. For Week 11, I'll call this a win since the Steelers are home. That would put them at 7-3.
However, I've got two automatic losses on the schedule. The first comes in Week 12 at Cleveland. They've gotta play on the road only four days after getting beaten up playing the Ravens. A win this week would change everything. But, I've got it as a loss to fall to 7-4.
Month record: 2-1
Overall record: 7-4
DECEMBER/JANUARY
• Week 13: at Bengals
• Week 14: vs. Browns
• Week 15: at Eagles
• Week 16: at Ravens (Saturday)
• Week 17: vs. Chiefs (Wednesday - Christmas Day)
• Week 18: vs. Bengals
If you're looking at one game that could be the most pivotal on the whole schedule, it's Week 13 at Cincinnati. Based on my logic of splitting all three divisional opponents, the Steelers likely lose here to fall to 7-5. And, that's what I'm going to officially predict.
However, if you're looking for any shred of optimism ahead of the most brutal stretch of the schedule that could derail the entire season, it's this: This game at Cincinnati comes off of a mini-bye. That means they'll have played the previous game 10 or more days prior to the next one. That gives teams time to heal and better prepare for the upcoming opponent. And, just as Tomlin's teams have done very well after a bye week, they have similar success after a mini-bye.
Under Tomlin, the Steelers are 13-6 with a +70 point differential in such games. And, he's had more success in recent seasons, going 9-2 in the most recent 11 games that follow a mini-bye. So, beating the Bengals in this week is not out of the realm of possibility. And, it could be a win that saves their season.
Why could it save their season? Because after the Week 14 home game against the Browns (which I'm predicting as a win), I've got the Steelers losing three straight in Weeks 15-17. The other automatic loss I have is at Philadelphia. This team never wins in Philly. Then, they have to play in Baltimore only six days later, then have to play the Chiefs four days later on Christmas.
Sorry, I'm just not optimistic about that stretch. If they were to win at least one game, it'd be a Christmas miracle.
Finally, the Steelers can win in the season finale against the Bengals. But if it all goes as I predict it to, it'll be too little too late.
Month record: 2-4
FINAL RECORD: 9-8
A 9-8 finish isn't good enough to make it to the playoffs in the AFC. It may not even be good enough to avoid last place in the AFC North. So, no, I don't have the Steelers snapping their drought of playoff wins.
I do think this roster is better than what it was a season ago when they finished 10-7. And, they should have won more games than that. However, this schedule is as brutal as can be. I have questions about this offense's ceiling, and there's a lot to bank on regarding the defense staying healthy.
In such a loaded conference, a lot has to go right. This is a good roster. If this roster remains intact (for the most part) next spring and they somehow sign Dak Prescott in free agency (dream on), they immediately become a contender in the AFC. But, the additions on Russell Wilson and Justin Fields aren't enough for me to buy into a successful Steelers season. It can happen, but I have no reason to realistically assume Wilson will be the guy who he was in Seattle or Fields will magically figure it out.
