Two months after getting word from Ben Cherington that he'd be starting this season in the minor leagues, Paul Skenes has apparently checked off the necessary boxes and is ready to make his Pittsburgh debut.
Skenes, the Pirates' No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft and the top-ranked pitching prospect in all of baseball according to MLB Pipeline, will have his contract selected from Class AAA Indianapolis, per a source Wednesday, and will start Saturday, 4:05 p.m., against the Cubs at PNC Park.
I spent pretty much the whole spring around him, so I thought it'd be fun to answer some potential questions fans might have upon his arrival:
HOW HARD DOES HE THROW, REALLY?
Skenes' fastball touches triple digits with regularity, as he's turned to it 47% of the time and has consistently seen it sit around 100 mph this season. He's registered nearly 100 pitches at 100 mph or better this season and, at this point, it's really a surprise if he's not hitting those triple-digit numbers on the radar gun. The velocity he continuously shows helped his cause in striking out hitters at a 42.9% rate in his 27 1/3 innings in Indianapolis.
An example of the heat he's capable of bringing: In his final Class AAA start against Buffalo on Sunday, he threw 66 pitches and averaged 99.3 mph on 31 fastballs. His slowest fastball came in at 97.2 mph while he topped out at 101 mph.
WHAT ABOUT HIS OTHER STUFF?
His fastball is deserving of the attention it gets, but it's not the only valuable weapon in his arsenal. He's reliant on his full mix, which includes a slider, splitter, changeup and curveball. Those are pitches that allow him to keep hitters off balance when they're expecting triple digits.
Here's Skenes, in that aforementioned final Class AAA start, getting his four strikeouts on a slider, a changeup and two splitters:
.@Paulskenes knocking out 4 K’s in 1 game, finishing out the series with a W
— Bally Live (@ballylivenow) May 6, 2024
Catch every @indyindians game in the Bally Live App: https://t.co/ZV5BWmypwL pic.twitter.com/PiHT4hbUZH
Skenes focused during the offseason on being comfortable with all five of his pitches and mentioned during spring training that while his velocity is a tool, he enjoys being able to pitch rather than simply blow a fastball by a hitter like he did during his college days at LSU.
"It's not the biggest thing I want to rely on," he said in early March. "But pitching’s fun. I mean, blowing it by guys is fun. It gets old. Pitching and the art of it, I really love that."
IS THE COMMAND THERE, TOO?
Being a pitcher and not only relying on his ability to strike out opposing hitters is going to be crucial to Skenes' success. His ability to consistently show off that triple-digit velocity is a huge plus, but keeping his pitch counts low, being effective and pitching deep into games will be crucial as he gets deeper into his big-league career.
The command has been there, though. Skenes only walked hitters at a 7.6% rate while at Indy. Having good command and keeping hitters off base via the free passes will certainly help him maintain a high level of success in the majors.
WHAT IS A SPLINKER?
Oh, yeah, about that splitter. DK went at that issue down in Sarasota this spring. It's more of a half-splitter, half-sinker.
And it's apparently been coined the "splinker."
See for yourself:
An example of Paul Skenes' "splinker" (splitter/sinker combo)
— Platinum Ke’Bryan (@PlatinumKey13) May 9, 2024
Good. Luck. https://t.co/58SzF1mXo5 pic.twitter.com/1BN7ixSVvX
IS HE EVEN BETTER THAN JARED JONES?
It's hard for any pitcher to come close to what Jared Jones has been able to do through the first seven starts of his big-league career. He's made history in more ways than one and has been a consistently valuable weapon within the Pirates' starting rotation, a weapon that happens to be among the National League leaders in ERA (2.63), WHIP (0.78) and strikeouts (52).
Jones is without question an early-season candidate for rookie of the year, and Skenes could soon join him in that category. When he was drafted, Skenes was touted by experts as being the best college pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg. Albeit in a small sample size of only 12 minor-league starts and 34 total innings, Skenes has lived up to the hype early in his professional career. If he can continue to build off of what he's already been able to achieve, we could be looking at a dominant one-two punch -- perhaps one of the league's best -- for years to come.
What's fun is that those two are relentlessly in competition and they talk about it all the time, even texting each other through the past month to compare who did better.
WHAT'S HE LIKE?
A guy who pitches with confidence and seems unfazed when faced with pressure situations. Sound familiar? It's just another way Skenes is linked to Jones, who shares that same confident and calm demeanor on the mound.
Take his reaction to striking out the Orioles' Jackson Holliday in this year's spring breakout game as a perfect example of the confidence and swagger he pitches with:
Paul Skenes strikes out Jackson Holliday#MLB #SpringBreakout
— S L U G G E R (@ghostsluggerr) March 14, 2024
pic.twitter.com/ro4Ngj46P1
We can't forget what he brings off the field, either. A guy who carries himself with a business-like approach? Yes. But also a guy who understands what it means to give back to those who support him:
JOSE NEGRON / DKPS
Paul Skenes signs autographs for fans at Pirate City in Bradenton, Fla.
And that wasn't the only instance in which he spent valuable time with fans this spring:
JOSE NEGRON / DKPS
Paul Skenes poses for a photo with a fan following the spring game at LECOM Park in Bradenton, Fla.
IS HE AS FAMOUS AS HIS GIRLFRIEND?
Aside from being a viewed as a potential face of the franchise in Pittsburgh, Skenes is also known as being Livvy Dunne's boyfriend.
Dunne has found success in her own right as a gymnast and social media personality. She is a former USA National Team member and is a member of the gymnastics team at LSU. She's also one of the most-followed NCAA athletes on social media with more than 8 million followers on TikTok and 5.1 million on Instagram.
Skenes has significantly less of a following, so the edge goes Dunne on this one.
WHEN WILL HE PITCH FOR THE YANKEES?
Unless he finishes in the top two in voting for the National League Rookie of the Year, Skenes will not accrue a full year of service time in the big leagues. That would allow him to be under club control through 2030.
That means the Pirates have six full years of control of Skenes beginning with his debut Saturday. Any time the organization gets ahold of a talented player a la Gerrit Cole when he was drafted with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2011 draft, questions surrounding their future with the club arise. It's perfectly fair to question it. I mean, I'm sure plenty asked this question when Cole was making his way through the system. And guess what? There he is playing -- well, not at the moment -- for the Yankees.
Who knows what Skenes' distant future holds?
Maybe he'll don the pinstripes one day. Or perhaps he'll wear Dodger blue. But one thing is for certain: On Saturday, he'll don the black and gold.
DOES THE TIMING OF HIS DEBUT AFFECT SUPER-2?
The timing of Skenes' promotion means he will likely get an extra year of arbitration -- a fourth rather than a third. Keeping a player down in the minors until the Super-2 deadline passes is something the Pirates have done in the past. But in this case, they made the wise decision to promote Skenes now rather than later. Same with Jones, by the way.
CAN HE HIT? PLEASE SAY HE CAN HIT!
With the collective struggles the Pirates have faced from an offensive perspective ... well, I'd have to see it to believe it at this level, but he does have a pretty legitimate track record of being a good hitter in the past: During his two seasons with the Air Force Academy in 2021 and 2022, he was a .367 hitter. We're talking a large sample size of 341 at-bats here. He hit 24 homers during those two seasons and drove in 81 runs.
We all know it won't happen, and there wasn't any movement in that regard all spring, but hey, scout him for yourself:
Paul Skenes really brought the pop in college. 💪 pic.twitter.com/qCMlfdoXZo
— MLB (@MLB) May 8, 2024