It's an exciting team, maybe the most exciting in a decade. And if more had gone per the precedent of an almost perfect opening road trip, it would've been an exciting home opener at PNC Park.
This, I promise, is a reaction to neither.
Rather, it's ... I don't know, more of a continuation of existing concerns?
Remember my American League scout from Bradenton, the one who'd cast a charcoal cloud over the sunniest of skies, who looked out at the Pirates' biggest three bats -- Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds and Ke'Bryan Hayes -- taking cuts in the cage and asked me, "Who else is gonna hit?"
Yeah. That.
Because I didn't have an answer for him then, I didn't have an answer after a month of all the requisite happy home runs in Grapefruit ball, I didn't have one amid all 49 runs through seven games of real ball, and I sure didn't after Derek Shelton's lineup card Friday finished up like this following a 5-2 loss to the Orioles:
MLB
Smallest of sample sizes, I get it. Just sharing the moment.
And for what it's worth, the moment's very much headlined by those biggest three bats being off to wonderful starts:
1. Cruz: .344/.382/.531, two home runs
2. Reynolds: .286/.405/.486, home run, nine RBIs
3. Hayes: .324/.429/.412, five RBIs
To boot, Cruz, who's still carrying to the box as much potential as anyone spanning Major League Baseball, gave the capacity crowd of 38,440 on this day a cool consolation ...
We’re the reporter. He’s the news. pic.twitter.com/nGhP46Av85
— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) April 5, 2024
... in addition to two opposite-field singles that, if I'm being honest, impressed me all the more. And have been doing so for a while. We all know he can do the Missile thing, but he's been driving pitches -- or dinking pitches, if that's what it takes -- for several weeks now, including spring training, and that's a powerful sign that there's more to this player than his naturally prodigious power.
Seriously, check the spray chart:
BASEBALL SAVANT
That's all of his batted balls in play, as the graphic denotes, leading into the home opener. In all, an extraordinary eight of his 11 hits to date have gone well to the left of second base, as have 13 of his 19 batted balls.
I brought this up with Shelton after this game, and he'd begin his reply, "I think it’s a concerted effort to make sure he stays within himself. When you come to the big leagues and you’re a guy his size and have the ability to hit the ball as far as he does, the natural reaction is to see how far you can hit the ball."
He then referenced hitting coach Andy Haines in adding, "Andy and our group have done a good job making him realize that there’s a lot of the field to use and to go ahead and use it. If he uses the other side of the field, I think we saw with the one ground ball in this game, you’re not going to throw him out ... if he puts the ball on the ground and infielders have to go one way or another. It’s just the maturation of him as a hitter.”
The ground ball Shelton mentioned:
Hall of Famer Jim Leyland on the #Pirates Oneil Cruz:
— Mitchell Nagy ⚾️ (@mryannagy) April 5, 2024
"This kid looks to me like he's got a chance to be a superstar"
That's all any baseball fan should need to hear.#LetsGoBucs pic.twitter.com/JqRezdGuSA
That's a basehit off the bat. No chance for Ramón Urías at third base, especially not with Baltimore shifting him toward short.
Imagine teams will reconsider the shifts?
“It's definitely good to be able to go the other way," Cruz would say to this subject, as interpreted by coach Stephen Morales. "That means, as a hitter, that you are in a really good spot, that you can just use the whole field. ... It's definitely going to be an adjustment that you'll see this year because 2022, in my mind, I was just hitting the ball to the right side of the field. As a hitter, you mature, and I have to use the whole field when I hit.”
I don't know, man. I'll admit, if I could casually poke baseballs out of ballparks, that just might be all I'd need in life.
But good for him. Sounds a lot like Paul Skenes did this spring in Sarasota when emphasizing how he'll never want to settle for simply blowing 102-mph heat past his opponents. He'll always want to expand his knowledge, his repertoire toward becoming more complete.
As for the other two biggest bats ... look, I'm seldom one to take any baseball player for granted, but I'll comfortably come close with Reynolds. He's as consistent as they come, and he's back in that form already. And it's possible that Hayes has at least crossed that same threshold with how he's produced over his past 400-plus plate appearances. Both of which are, obviously, more than welcome in the context of their multiyear extensions.
Full credit to all three. They're either excelling or roaming into that range.
But for all the fun talk of contention in these parts -- and I'd begrudge nobody for engaging in that -- there just has to be more who climb into this category. Maybe one or two. Maybe more. And I don't see that. Not yet. And not even building up.
Think of it this way: Anyone venturing to downplay my scout's doubts would do well to come up with specific counters. As in names. As in names penned in indelible ink.
Andrew McCutchen's earned being the first such counter. He should come to mind. He is who he is, and anyone betting against him in any walk of life would do well to brush up on bankruptcy proceedings. But he's 37, he's started out 3 for 20 with a highly uncharacteristic 11 strikeouts, and his only job at this stage of his brilliant career is to hit way, way better than that.
Don't make me say it. Because I won't. He'll bounce back. He will. But bouncing back alone won't suffice, again, because of the expected production of any lineup's designated hitter. He's got to be a lot closer to what he was in 2023 in batting .256 with 12 home runs and 43 RBIs.
Jack Suwinski, slotted at cleanup on this day, can carry the offense for a couple weeks or crush it over a full month. While that can appear OK at season's end -- 26 home runs and 74 RBIs can cover countless warts -- he's the first to concede he can't endure another summer of striking out 172 times over 534 plate appearances and expect everyday duty. And so far this season, he's 4 for 26 with a home run, a double and six strikeouts. He's cut down on the Ks, including through the spring, but much more's needed before someone like Edward Olivares starts taking his at-bats against lefties and marginalizing him.
Rowdy Tellez, gregarious new guy and author of 35 home runs two seasons ago in Milwaukee, is striving to regain exactly that form. He's said so. And when he lays into one, as he did for that massive three-run blast in Miami last week, it's a thing of beauty. But to date, he's 4 for 18 with eight strikeouts, and this fresh off a tough, injury-plagued 2023 with the Brewers.
Henry Davis, No. 1 overall pick, arrived with the pedigree of a hit-first, possibly hit-only catcher. So the scariest facet of his first months in the majors has to be that, aside from a brief surge upon being promoted a year ago, he's yet to hit much at all. And even after a spring just now in which he implemented a new, upper-cut-looking batting stance that served him quite well in Bradenton, he's been the offense's weakest link at 4 for 28 with 10 strikeouts against four walks.
I won't take this one too far. He's 24 and still a baby in baseball years. But it takes a casual glance across the diamond this week to see how the Orioles have constructed a nuclear arsenal of a lineup principally via high draft picks. They're so stacked, actually, that there's bona fide discussion that their lineup with Class AAA Norfolk would compare with a few in the bigs.
Together, those four -- Cutch, Suwinski, Tellez and Davis -- went a combined 0 for 16 with nine strikeouts on this day. And there's only so much dismissing of sample sizes that can be done when longer-term trends are exposed.
In fact, I won't take this overall topic too far, either. It's early. There've been pleasant bursts, as well, from Connor Joe, Michael A. Taylor, and there's hope at, say, second base, where Jared Triolo homered and walked in this game, plus an expected push from Liover Peguero.
More's needed. All I'm saying.
• Awesome to see Jared Jones keep pushing through that Baltimore lineup. He showed his stuff beyond just the splash effect, as he had in Miami. This was different. Our additional coverage from PNC Park.
• Awesome to see Skenes keep lighting it up, too. Our coverage from Indianapolis.
• Dali and I are flying to North Carolina today to see Dara's latest performance in Winston-Salem, so I won't be as responsive as the norm. I'll set up a new Live Qs for Sunday, and I'll have a new Grind for Monday.
• Because of that, the Downtown HQ/shop will be closed today. We'll reopen Tuesday.
• Yeah, it's Saturday now, but I put up Site Stuff a couple days ago, in case anyone missed it.
• Thanks for reading.
