Halicke: How the running game might thrive under a new identity

There's no doubt that things are going to be different for the Steelers on offense in 2024. Not only did Mike Tomlin bring in a seasoned offensive coordinator in Arthur Smith, the quarterback room has been completely overhauled. 

But, even with the sweeping changes, this team's identity still lies in the running game.

No matter what offense Smith installs, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren will be a crucial part of what the Steelers do offensively. This is still a run-first team, and the Steelers have one of the best running back duos in the NFL.

No, that's not hyperbole or reaching in any way. The Steelers and Lions were the only teams to have multiple running backs surpass 1,000 yards from scrimmage. And, the Steelers did that in spite of a midseason change at offensive coordinator.

But, how might the Steelers' running game actually look in 2024? Could we see more of the same that we witnessed down the stretch last season? How might Smith work with the talent at his disposal?

First off, as we looked at when news broke of his hiring, Smith has predominantly deployed a wide zone system with the running game, first as offensive coordinator with the Titans in 2019-2020 and then again as head coach of the Falcons for the past three seasons. Over the three seasons in Atlanta, nearly 59% of the running plays were outside zone, far and away the majority.

This is important because Harris has predominantly been a better zone runner going all the way back to his days at Alabama. The Steelers had that in mind when Matt Canada switched to more outside zone concepts in 2022. And, Harris put up better numbers in zone, averaging 4.09 yards per carry with a 48.9% success rate, compared to 3.24 yards per carry with a 39.8% success rate on gap/man concepts. And, prior to Canada's firing in 2023, Harris averaged 4.31 yards per carry with a 48% success rate on zone concepts, compared to 3.32 yards per carry with a 35.8% success rate on gap/man concepts.

This is a great example of how Harris can punish a defense when an outside zone concept such as Zorro is executed well. Harris knows how to read the second level of the defense and put himself into one-on-one situations with players in the secondary, which is exactly what outside zone tries to do.

For Warren, he's recorded better numbers running gap/man concepts over zone, especially in 2023. Warren averaged a respectable 3.91 yards per carry with a 46.3% success rate in zone concepts last season, but that pales in comparison to his 6.98 yards per carry and 51.5% success rate in gap/man concepts.

Based on Smith's previous offenses and the skill sets of the two running backs at his disposal, that would seem to make Harris the clear and obvious choice to earn the bulk of the carries in 2024. 

However, just because Smith's previously used a heavy wide zone system, I think it's a little unfair to automatically assume that's what the offense will automatically look like next season. There are a couple key reasons why.

After the Steelers fired Canada, the offense shifted away from a predominant outside zone scheme to a more balanced attack that included much more gap/man concepts. And, Harris has reaped the benefit of this change. From the time Eddie Faulkner and Mike Sullivan took over offensive coordinator and play calling duties through the end of the season, Harris gained 269 yards on 58 carries in man/gap concepts, an average of 4.64 yards per carry. That's an improvement of 1.32 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Harris averaged only 3.91 yards per carry on zone concepts during the same stretch post-Canada. So, despite being a better zone runner previously, Harris got better when the Steelers switched to more gap/man concepts.

This is Harris gaining modest yards behind a Power concept against the Seahawks. During the post-Canada tenure last season, Harris averaged 5.44 yards per carry with a whopping 75% success rate on Power concepts.

In addition, both Harris and Warren put up much better numbers in Power, Duo, Trap and Counter -- all gap/man -- over zone concepts after Canada's firing. For a team that was built to run outside zone, this may seem a bit puzzling on the surface. But, when you look around the rest of the league, it might make sense.

The league has been exploited by the use of outside and wide zone systems. With his success with Derrick Henry in Tennessee, Smith is a big part of that, as well as offensive gurus Kyle Shahanan and Sean McVay. In turn, defenses across the league have pushed back so much that both Shanahan and McVay have recently relied much more on gap/man concepts in their systems. Just this past season, the Rams ran Duo (a gap/man concept) more than any other concept, and it bore fruit as Kyren Williams finished third in the NFL in rushing.

Defenses are faster than they've ever been. That's not by accident. Not only are they better prepared to defend the pass, but they are better prepared to run sideline to sideline to defend horizontal rushing attacks. But, with more speed comes less size and strength. Thus, several teams have already begun using more gap/man concepts to attack defenses vertically as a way to push back and stay ahead in the cat-and-mouse game.

No one knows what Tomlin and Smith are planning. Even when Tomlin was asked about the identity of the new offense during the NFL annual meeting in Orlando last week, Tomlin was very tight-lipped about it.

"Stay tuned," Tomlin said. "It doesn't benefit me to drop stakes down, man, and be very black and white about our intentions as we sit here. But rest assured, we have a definitive plan. We've acquired coaching and playing talent to make that plan reality. We can't wait to get started with the process."

The only thing Tomlin said that can maybe hint at the plan for this season is how Smith's values "are aligned with things that we value." That could just be as broad as the Steelers want to be a run-first offense and Smith deploys a run-heavy system. But, what if it means Smith is willing to tweak his offense to better match the Steelers' personnel?

Now, we still have yet to see how the Steelers plan to address tackle and center, which are both in need of an upgrade in order to better run the ball and protect two quarterbacks such as Russell Wilson and Justin Fields that hold onto the ball for a long time. But, should the Steelers not be able to upgrade center, they may be better off sticking with more gap/man concepts than Smith's run previously.

This is from Smith's offense in Atlanta. Just watch center Drew Dalman (No. 67) on this run and the way he's able to not only get all the way to the second level while running laterally, but also get outside leverage on the defender to clear a running lane for the ball carrier. That is superb athleticism.

The Steelers didn't have that in Mason Cole. They don't have that in Nate Herbig. James Daniels is sticking at right guard. Spencer Anderson might be the only wild card here, but he profiles as a better gap/man blocker. Now, one of the centers in the upcoming draft class could possibly pull this off, such as Jackson Powers-Johnson, Zach Frazier or Duke's Graham Barton, who's most likely switching from tackle to play center in the NFL. But, there's no guarantee the Steelers get one of those guys. If they don't, running a lot of wide and outside zone concepts won't work very well. They require a lot of athleticism across the entire offensive line, especially at center.

It'll be really interesting to see what Smith has in store for this running game. Should the Steelers get an athletic center in the draft, that could be a key piece in being able to execute his old wide zone stuff. But, the success Harris and Warren had down the stretch running downhill in gap/man concepts can't be ignored. Maybe, just maybe, there could be a good blend of both. And, it'll be interesting to see how Cordarrelle Patterson is utilized in the offense, though I have my reservations that it'll be anything close to enough to threaten Harris' or Warren's workload. They've both earned plenty of touches.

In reality, the Steelers don't need many tweaks to the running game. Smith is smart enough to be able to put some finishing touches on it. What'll really help this offense take off is if Smith can get this passing game playing off of a good rushing attack. But, that's a discussion for another time.