It could've been nothing.
Except I really don't think so.
It could've been nothing that, minutes after the Penguins beat the Blue Jackets, 5-3, on this Tuesday night at PPG Paints Arena, I came across Jake Guentzel sharing an emotional embrace with a longtime equipment manager just outside the team's locker room. Not the kind of interaction one might expect when considering that there's another game ... uh, Thursday.
It could've been nothing that Sidney Crosby, of all people, appeared as unplugged as anyone through the game that preceded this scene, a three-hour hellscape of September-level, spin-away hockey. The captain, who'd risen above nearly every rut around him through the season's first 59 games, wound up with no points, a minus-1 rating, two shots on goal and ... yeah, wow, it's hard to fathom, much less describe.
It could've been nothing that so many of Sid's more experienced teammates functioned at pretty much the same baseline that I couldn't cite more than a couple who could've been called even partially focused, invested or whatever the proper term might be.
It could've been nothing.
Except I really, really don't think so.
Indications were overwhelming throughout this evening, based on my reporting as well as two separate reports out of Canada, that Kyle Dubas has informed his NHL counterparts of his intention to trade Guentzel before the league's deadline of 3 p.m. Friday. Specifically, per the reports out of Canada, he'd prefer to have a trade consummated by Wednesday night, presumably because that'd buy him time to attempt an alternate plan if no offer's palatable. Such, as of course, getting Guentzel signed to an extension rather than allowing him to leave without a return as a free agent this summer.
I've presented my stance on this on countless occasions in recent months, and here's once more: Guentzel should only be traded if the return's a legit game-changer for the franchise. I can't just change for change's sake. Or youth for youth's sake.
That'd be idiotic. Incredibly so.
My understanding on this day was that Dubas was insisting on prospects over picks, and that part makes sense.
The draft's a crapshoot in any sport, but doubly so in hockey, which sees them culled as 18-year-olds with a crush of challenges still ahead. This return not only can't miss but it's also got to align with Sid's final few years in the league. I'm not referring to any sappy sentimentality when I say that. I'm calling it common sense. Sid can still score, create and lead at elite levels. Every year he's here will be a better year than the first one he's gone. So this return has to be of the sort that can surround him, not succeed him.
My further understanding on this day was that Dubas wasn't receiving much in the way of sign-and-trade proposals, and that part ... yikes.
To explain: If the Penguins were to achieve a deal in which the team acquiring Guentzel would insist on being able to keep him for years to come, they'd obviously be willing to pay a higher price via trade. These don't happen all that often, but they happen. When they don't happen, though, a team just as obviously won't be willing to pay that high a price because that player then becomes a one-playoff rental.
And that'll net, what, a nice pick? Maybe two? Maybe one pick and a middling prospect?
No bleeping way. That's the aforementioned change for change's sake. That's the aforementioned idiocy.
The Penguins don't get better now. They don't get better soon. And the odds in this scenario don't make it substantially more promising for the future, either: A first-round pick in the NHL has a 35% chance of logging as many as 200 games in the league, and that's including the highest of picks, which Dubas won't be prying from anyone. Say what one will about Guentzel approaching 30, and how his goals and points surely will dip over the life of any long-term extension, but there's no amount of loot I wouldn't bet that he'll be more productive than any pick or prospect who'd be part of a trade return in that same span.
Think of the one of the oldest sayings in professional sports: The team that gets the best player wins the trade.
Toss in the rental factor and, lo and behold, we've got change for change's sake and idiocy.
Look, I get what seems to be the popular position on this. And I get why. This roster needs to get younger. This roster's limited in the ways it can get younger because of all the no-movement clauses. And I'll accept that this roster's limited, to an extent, by the need to do right by Sid.
And yeah, that's a need, not a want.
Unlike some citizens, who seem sour enough about the whole process in part because of a couple trash losses in Alberta over the weekend, I'm not about to underplay the Sid factor. Long, long, long after this season and the next one or two expire, Sid's legacy will endure. Like that of Mario Lemieux. Like that of Roberto Clemente. Like that of Mean Joe Greene. Like so many more sporting legends our city's been blessed to have had here for their entire careers. And don't wait for me to apologize for weighing that above the short-term rush of adding some pick or prospect.
This isn't about appeasing Sid. Again, it's about doing right by him, and that's a meaningful difference. Doing right by him is fostering the smartest possible atmosphere for him to do well at the stuff he does best, like scoring, like creating, like leading. It's not sticking him with a sea of children, and it sure isn't tanking, as I've heard some have the audacity to suggest. We're not just talking about one of the greatest handful of players in the sport's history. We're talking about one of the greatest handful of winners in any sport's history.
And he's supposed to preside over a last-place romper-room roster, like Dylan Larkin in Detroit or something?
Trade Rickard Rakell. He scored in this game. Terrific timing.
Trade Reilly Smith. He scored in this game, too. Terrific timing.
Trade Tristan Jarry. He ... did what he does in conceding an unscreened, bad-angle, short-handed, third-period, lead-blowing goal as only he can in precisely that situation:
— DK Pittsburgh Sports (@DKPSmedia) March 6, 2024
No, seriously, there couldn't have been a soul among the 17,072 paying customers who didn't predict Jack Roslovic would score there and, in fact, I'm a little disappointed Roslovic didn't pull a Babe Ruth and point to the far pipe before releasing.
Move all of the above and more. Clear the cap space. Reduce the old, reap what's new.
But Jake?
Man, better be careful.
• I asked Mike Sullivan what it must've been like competing in this context, and his answer was as candid as I've come to expect:
“For the most part, I thought we did OK," he'd reply. "Obviously, there’s a lot of noise around the team right now, probably more so than there’s been in a lot of years. Part of our job is to make sure we focus on the task at hand, and that’s the game right in front of us. That’s our challenge. These guys are human. I think that’s one of the challenges that we have this time of year. ... Give the guys a lot of credit. I thought, in the third, we dug in and found a way.”
• I asked Marcus Pettersson, too, if all eyes remain locked on pushing toward the playoffs:
“Yeah, I think that’s our job in here to look at it that way," he'd reply. "We’ve got other people taking care of the things surrounding it. Everybody knows what’s going on this time of year. It’s no secret. So we can just focus. We’re not going to give up until we’re mathematically out of it. We’ve gotta keep scratching and clawing. That’s what we’re going to do.”
• For the literal record, the Penguins are now 28-24-8, or eight points behind the Flyers, the Metro's third-place team and most plausible target, with three games in hand. They're the same distance behind the Red Wings and Lightning for the Eastern Conference's final wild-card spots.
• All of the above aside, it was somewhat calming to see Evgeni Malkin score for the second game in a row ...
— DK Pittsburgh Sports (@DKPSmedia) March 6, 2024
... and later set up Smith with a slick steal/assist:
Evgeni Malkin steals the puck in the corner and sets up a wide open Reilly Smith in tight, 5-3 Pittsburgh!#LetsGoPens pic.twitter.com/XypFKFEHPD
— Hockey Daily 365 l NHL Highlights & News (@HockeyDaily365) March 6, 2024
I share this only so I can share Sullivan's passionate quote about Geno when the subject came up afterward, very much worth one's time even if it's lengthy: "Well, Geno puts a lot of pressure on himself to produce offense. And when he doesn’t, nobody feels it more than him. He’s also a guy that, in my mind, he’s a generational talent. And I don’t use that phrase loosely. There are very few generational talents, and he’s one of them. He’s a legit generational talent. We have two of them on our team, which is an incredible privilege. He’s a proud guy. And for a guy that’s a generational talent, when he struggles to score, nobody feels it more than he does. Sometimes, his confidence is volatile. But when he does start to feel it, he scores a goal, makes some plays, and he feeds off his own confidence. You can see it. These are the discussions I’ve had with him over the years. The greatest thing about confidence is that ... it’s fleeting, but you can get it back as fast as you lost it. It just starts with one good play, right? And then you build on it. More so than probably a lot of players, that might be the case with G. When he makes a few plays, especially early in games, it energizes him. I think he gets another step in his foot speed. Tonight, he had a strong night. I’m hopeful that he can build on this. He’s a tremendous talent, as we all know, and he’s capable of elite hockey.”
Absolutely loved it.
• Press play below. Crank the sound up for Mike Lange's call:
— matt (@yinzzzerr) March 5, 2024
Imagine sending that player away in his prime for a pathetic rental fee.
• This isn't about how mad anyone might be. This isn't about much of anything that's in the moment. The chief reason the Penguins blossomed into the NHL's marquee franchise in the United States is that, beginning with Mario then under his leadership and now spirit, they've been a place that does right by its best. Not everything went right with Jaromir Jagr, partly because of pre-cap financial issues, partly because he was and remains a man-child, but even that eventually was sorted out with style.
Get through these next 24 hours without doing anything dumb, and this franchise stays that much closer to preserving what's made it special.
• Neither Sid nor Geno was around to talk after this game.
It could've been nothing.
But I really, really, really don't think so.
• Andrew McCutchen days till Miami.
• Thanks so much for reading.
• Audiophile powers ... activate:
