Halicke: A deep dive into three offensive coordinator possibilities

The Steelers need a new offensive coordinator. And, much to the delight of many outside the walls of the UPMC Rooney Sports Complex on the South Side, Mike Tomlin is seeking external help with preferred NFL experience. With the way the offense has performed over the past three seasons, and a first-round quarterback plateauing after two seasons, the Steelers must hit on this hire.

Who are some of the candidates that the Steelers could interview during this process? What do each of them bring to the table? How could any of them get the most out of Kenny Pickett? How would any of these hires impact the Steelers' decision-making process at adding to the quarterback room?

Whoever takes the job, they will have plenty to work with to build something significantly better than what's been trotted out for three seasons. Simply put, the Steelers are not void of talent on the offensive side of the ball.

By the time this hiring process is over, the Steelers will likely have interviewed several candidates. Two are already known. With how much I want to dive into these candidates, it'll be too overwhelming to put it all into one Chalk Talk piece. So, I'm going to start with a deep dive into three candidates -- the two already reported to be interviewing for the position, and one very popular name that's been tossed around:

KLINT KUBIAK

Resume:

• Passing game coordinator, San Francisco 49ers (2023-present)
• Passing game coordinator/quarterbacks coach, Denver Broncos (2022)
• Offensive coordinator, Minnesota Vikings (2021)
• Quarterbacks coach, Minnesota Vikings (2019-20)
• Offensive assistant, Denver Broncos (2016-18)
• Wide receivers coach, Kansas (2015)
• Offensive quality control coach, Minnesota Vikings (2013-14)
• Graduate assistant, Texas A&M (2012)
• Offensive quality control coach, Texas A&M (2010-11)

Kubiak hails from the Kyle Shanahan tree, which has been a dynamic offensive scheme where quarterbacks have thrived. While Kubiak isn’t an overly experienced play-caller, he has called offensive plays on two separate occasions with the Vikings (2021) and Broncos (2022).

During Kubiak’s one-year stint as an offensive coordinator in Minnesota, the Vikings ranked 12th in total offense, 11th in passing offense and 14th in scoring. Outside of the quarterback situation, Kubiak could inherit a similar set of skills throughout the offense. The Vikings had a 1-2 punch in Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison at running back, and those two combined for 2,102 yards from scrimmage. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are coming off a season in which they combined for 2,359 yards from scrimmage, so there's more than a foundation there.

Kubiak also oversaw the breakout of Justin Jefferson in 2021, as he caught 108 passes for 1,616 yards and 10 touchdowns. George Pickens could very well be the next uber-talented receiver to benefit from Kubiak's system. Adam Thielen was also productive that season, despite missing four games due to injury. Diontae Johnson could play a similar high-volume role in which he's more relied on in getting open on possession downs from both outside and in the slot, helping the offense move the chains. Even Tyler Conklin was a productive tight end in Kubiak's offense, catching 61 passes for 593 yards and three touchdowns. It's fair to expect a tight end as talented as Pat Freiermuth to produce if targeted 87 times as Conklin was in 2021.

Hiring a coach from the Shanahan tree could be beneficial for the Steelers, as they incorporated some Shanahan-style concepts down the stretch in 2023. 

These are both variations of Zorro, which is a Shanahan staple and one of several ways to run outside zone. You can see examples of the success both Harris and Warren can have with it. Zorro helps counter widened fronts, and the Steelers saw plenty of that with defenses knowing their tendency for outside zone. 

But, the Shanahan influence continued as the Steelers dabbled more with play-action after Matt Canada was fired:

NFL.COM

This is a variation of Rider, which is Shanahan's variation of the Sail concept. Rider is a play-action concept that works especially well for teams that like running outside zone because it does a great job of disrupting the flow the defense. Watch how the Steelers execute it, how the defense not only shifts to one side with the play-action, but how it opens things up for the high-crosser (Johnson) going against that flow:

These are just a couple examples from the Shanahan school of offense, though Shanahan has recently deviated a bit from the wide zone schemes, but Kubiak could bring in a similar system. In 2021, Minnesota ran outside zone more than any other rushing concept. The Steelers were predominantly an outside zone team under Canada, so Harris, Warren and the offensive line would be familiar with it.

One very significant difference between the 2021 Vikings and the current version of the Steelers is the quarterback position. Kirk Cousins had a Pro Bowl season under Kubiak in 2021, completing 66.3% of his passes for 4,221 yards, 33 touchdowns and only seven interceptions in 16 games. Regardless of what anyone feels about Kenny Pickett or Mason Rudolph, neither have proved they can produce anywhere near that level. Cousins could be available in free agency, and a reunion with Kubiak would be very interesting.

However, that's a deviation from what Tomlin said about his quarterback position. Pickett is expected to have competition, not be automatically supplanted as the starting quarterback. Rightfully so, Cousins will only sign where he's going to be a starter.

But, Kubiak has worked with several different quarterbacks, including Ryan Tannehill, Teddy Bridgewater, Paxton Lynch, Russell Wilson and Brock Purdy. Kubiak is more than capable of fostering growth for Pickett and/or helping Rudolph (should he re-sign with Pittsburgh) sustain the level of play we witnessed in the final four games the Steelers played, both regular and postseason.

One potential drawback is the Shanahan style of offense has typically relied a bit more on star power. Nothing to be taken away from Harris, Warren, Pickens or Johnson, but none have proved to be stars just yet, though Pickens certainly has a massive ceiling. Should Pickens explode into stardom under Kubiak and be out with an injury at any point, concerns could rise about the offense remaining productive, just as we've witnessed when the 49ers' offense is without Deebo Samuel.

Nevertheless, Kubiak would be a strong candidate should he earn an interview. That likely won't happen until after the 49ers are done for the season, whether that come via a loss in the NFC Championship game or playing in Super Bowl LVIII.

ZAC ROBINSON

Resume:

• Passing game coordinator/quarterbacks coach, Los Angeles Rams (2022-present)
• Assistant quarterbacks coach, Los Angeles Rams (2021)
• Assistant wide receivers coach, Los Angeles Rams (2020)
• Assistant quarterbacks coach, Los Angeles Rams (2019)

Robinson hails from the Sean McVay coaching tree, where he has spent his his entire coaching career. Robinson played quarterback for four seasons at Oklahoma State and was a seventh-round pick of the Patriots in the 2010 NFL Draft. He bounced around between four teams in only four NFL seasons.

After his playing career, Robinson spent the next several years giving instruction to quarterbacks in preparation for the Combine and NFL Draft, including Rudolph. Prior to his coaching career, Robinson also served as a senior analyst for Pro Football Focus as one of the site's primary pro and college quarterback evaluators.

Robinson doesn't boast a lengthy resume or play-calling experience (except for this past preseason), the latter of which is a trait preferred by Tomlin. However, interviewing a disciple of McVay's system could align philosophically with this organization, and the Steelers have requested to interview Robinson, making him an official candidate for the job.

McVay's system has evolved in recent years, but especially this past season. One thing they've done is worked hard to make all of their plays look the same prior to the snap, which prevents telegraphing plays and tendencies to opposing defenses. One way the Rams did this in 2023 is running out of 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end) 94.3% of the time, which far and away led the NFL. Just to put that in perspective, the Steelers had the fifth-highest usage of 11 personnel at 75.4%.

Of course, using 11 personnel this often puts a lot of responsibility on receivers when it comes to run blocking. The Steelers have familiarity with this, as they had Allen Robinson involved very frequently as a critical blocker when the Steelers rushed out of 11 personnel. Just scroll back up to the two Zorro runs with Harris and Warren and watch Robinson get his hands dirty.

With Robinson coming from McVay's system, it could very well align with what the Steelers may want to do in both running and passing the football. On the ground, the Rams switched to more of a gap/man scheme over outside zone, a trend that's taking place throughout the league over the past couple seasons. As defenses have needed to become faster to better defend offenses horizontally, they've become more susceptible to a vertical running game behind a healthy dose of Duo and Power concepts.

The Rams ran Duo more than any other rushing concept in 2023, and Kyren Williams -- the Rams' leading rusher who finished third in the NFL with 1,144 yards -- had a 65.7% success rate when running Duo. When the Steelers also shifted to more of a vertical running game behind gap/man concepts after Canada was fired, both Harris and Warren thrived, especially Harris. That's significant because Harris has predominantly been a better zone runner since his days at Alabama. During that stretch, Harris averaged 4.21 yards per carry and had a respectable 55.2% success rate running Duo, and he really thrived in Power, averaging 5.44 yards per carry with an astounding 75% success rate.

A vertical running game from under center could really align with the Steelers, and it would make a lot of sense for Robinson to deploy a similar system should he be hired. Only four teams ran out of the shotgun less frequently than the Rams in 2023, and they were very efficient from under center. The Rams ranked fifth in EPA (Expected Points Added) per play and ranked first in EPA per dropback from under center. As passing game coordinator, Robinson helped organize and design passing concepts from under center. That would obviously help disguise rushing plays, making the Steelers more difficult to defend.

Here's a collection of plays put together by The 33rd Team, all from under center. Watch how many different ways Puka Nacua was used in motion:

This is something the Steelers could very well use in a similar manner. Should Robinson be hired, it would behoove Pittsburgh to deepen their receiver room by adding a guy that can produce yards through the air but also isn't afraid to stick his face in the C-gap every now and then. 

With Robinson learning under McVay, and considering the way that offense has evolved, this could be a very good fit. It would allow the Steelers to build off the vertical running game that worked so well down the stretch, play more from under center and utilize more play-action, testing defenses both horizontally and vertically through the air.

KLIFF KINGSBURY

Resume:

• Senior offensive analyst, USC (2023-present)
• Head coach, Arizona Cardinals (2019-2022)
• Head coach, Texas Tech (2013-2018)
• Offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach, Texas A&M (2012)
• Co-offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach, University of Houston (2010-2011)
• Offensive quality control coach, University of Houston (2008-2009)

Kingsbury developed his offense at the University of Houston and Texas A&M, where he worked with Case Keenum and Johnny Manziel. Kingsbury solidified his reputation of working with and developing young quarterbacks when he became head coach at Texas Tech and coached Patrick Mahomes for his entire collegiate career.

In turn, Kingsbury became known as one of the must-have offensive gurus, and subsequently earned the Cardinals' head coaching position as his first job in the NFL. Kingsbury immediately worked with Kyler Murray, and not only helped him win Offensive Rookie of the Year, but also turned around a Cardinals rushing attack that finished dead last in 2018 to a formidable unit that ranked in the top eight the next two seasons.

Despite the initial success, Kingsbury's four years in Arizona were turbulent, at best. Injuries didn't help the situation, but Kingsbury never lived up to the hype. He was subsequently fired after the 2022 season. Most recently, Kingsbury's work at USC aided in the development of quarterback Caleb Williams, who's expected to one of the first picks in the upcoming draft.

Fostering growth for Pickett could be a big reason for entertaining Kingsbury. In his end of season press conference, Tomlin said, "This game is quarterback-driven. Offenses are quarterback-driven. So their expertise in that area is a significant component of the search from my perspective." And with Tomlin hinting that Pickett would only be pushed with competition instead of being supplanted, it's reasonable to suggest that the new offensive coordinator will be tasked with helping Pickett take a significant step forward in his third season.

Kingsbury's track record with quarterbacks can't be denied. The Steelers could really benefit from better, more dynamic quarterback play. Any team in today's NFL could. However, I have a hard time seeing how Kingsbury's scheme fits Pittsburgh's needs based on current personnel and the overall trend of offense in the NFL.

Kingsbury runs his own version of an Air Raid offense, which spreads out defenses and stresses them with tempo and speed on the outside. In turn, this means his offenses run a lot of 11 personnel. That's not a bad thing, as illustrated by what the Rams did with it in 2023. However, Kingsbury's offenses have had a high percentage of shotgun snaps, and passing from under center was nonexistent.

One of the biggest gripes under Canada was how much the Steelers telegraphed plays. When they were under center, they were running. When they were in the shotgun, they were passing. There wasn't nearly enough play-action, but especially from under center. Under Kingsbury, Murray threw the ball only 87 times from under center in four seasons. In Kingsbury's final season with the Cardinals, his offense ranked 26th in EPA per pass on early downs. Why? It could be because while the rest of the league began to adjust to more under center play-action passes to keep defenses honest, his offense continued to run out of the shotgun on early downs at the third-highest clip in the league.

Another potential flaw in Kingbury's offense is a serious lack of motion. While the Air Raid offense stresses defenses with tempo and speed, that comes at the cost of using a lot of motion. Lack of motion means more passing concepts from static formations, which plays very well into the hands of the fast defenses of today's NFL. It also takes away a useful tool in helping disguise plays, regardless of formation. 

If the Steelers are also trying to distance themselves from the issues that sunk this offense to the bottom of the league under Canada, Kingsbury's offense also avoids the middle of the field at an alarming rate:

PFF.COM

PFF.COM

Based on precedent and his ability to work with quarterbacks, Kingsbury will be a commodity in this round of offensive coordinator hires throughout the NFL. Kingsbury has already interviewed with the Bears and Eagles, and it's been reported that Kingsbury will interview with the Steelers, as well.

There is a place for pieces of an Air Raid offense in today's NFL and still run the ball effectively. Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken comes from an Air Raid background, and Baltimore still led the NFL in rushing. Yes, Lamar Jackson is a huge contributor to that, but Baltimore running backs still rushed for 1,696 yards, averaging of 4.65 yards per carry.

And, if Pickett's growth and development is paramount for the Steelers, Kingsbury will get serious consideration should he not be hired elsewhere.