Baseball is a cyclical game. A team can be on the cutting edge and inspire the next revolution of roster construction or in-game strategy and then be hopelessly obsolete with that same strategy just a few year later.
The Pirates were certainly the beneficiaries and later hindered with their reliance on sinkers through the 2010s. Those quick outs helped fuel reclamation projects and elevated them to a playoff team, but their run of success was short-lived after the league adjusted and they decided to double down on their ideologies.
So it's only fitting that after years of analysts and analytical experts screaming from the rooftops to stop throwing sinkers, the sinker was actually one of the most valuable pitches in baseball last season and could be so again in 2024. That's baseball.
The Pirates never completely gave up on the sinker. The pitch was even one of the final pieces to help Mitch Keller break out into an All-Star. No team should completely give up on any pitch, really. But when Oscar Marin took over as pitching coach in 2020, there was a focus on leaning more heavily on four-seamers and pitching up in the zone. The team had to play catch up to how rapidly the game had evolved. Looking back on it, perhaps it was a bit of an over-correction. Perhaps an over-correction was necessary.
Over the past 4+ years, Mound Visit has been an examination of player, team and league trends and how it relates to the Pirates as they navigate through their rebuild. The on-field results have been poor in that time, but some of that was expected given the team's plan and focus on growing a new core of players through their farm system. If those players pan out, then those growing pains are going to be worth it.
So as the team enters the fifth year with Ben Cherington, Derek Shelton and a good chunk of this coaching staff at the helm, the question is are they headed in the right direction? The players have been vocal that they're aiming to compete in 2024. We could talk about if they have done enough to supplement that roster this winter, but I'm talking big picture. Are the Pirates in position to stick with the league's trends moving forward, and perhaps be part of that cutting edge again?
I'm inclined to say yes. And unlike so many Mound Visits that preceded this one, a lot of that belief is more anecdotal than it is analytical.
I could cite figures and numbers to illustrate my point. After all, I have done plenty of that these last four years. The offense needs to score more runs, but their approach has improved these past few years. They're swinging at the right pitches more and are generally making harder, better contact. Teams across the league are looking for these traits. They are on the right trajectory
Last year, no major-league rotation threw a higher percentage of sliders and sweepers than the Pirates' starters. The sweeper was the pitch of the year across the sport last year, and the Pirates were in position to throw it plenty. The results were good, too, as the .307 slugging percentage against was the sixth-lowest in the league.
What should be most encouraging about that stat is that the Pirates didn't go into last year ready to spam sweepers and sliders. They just so happened to have a couple young pitchers who had good breaking pitches, so the thought process was to throw your best stuff more. They got to a good end result, but what's arguably more important is the process is repeatable, and not just for sweepers. This wasn't a one-size fits all approach like the sinker was almost a decade ago. It was building a better plan for the pitchers.
Sometimes that better plan went against the league trends. The sinker was starting to have a bit of a resurgence in 2022, but it still had some negative stigma around it. That didn't scare Marin or Keller away from mixing it into his arsenal midseason. On paper, it doesn't seem like it would exactly work. Keller is a strikeout pitcher and he's going to start throwing a pitch to contact fastball? He learned how to use it as a pitch hitters don't want to swing at, leading to a ton of called strikes. That's good pitch design and execution.
We've seen this team experiment too, especially on the pitching side. Hybrid pitchers were a worthwhile experiment in 2022, but they didn't have enough arms to maintain that strategy for the long-term. Openers and bulk guys became common in the homestretch of this last season over traditional starters. On offense, they ran more than any other team in April, sparking that hot start early in the year.
Two of those examples proved to be not sustainable in the long run. Teams adjusted to the running game and the Pirates finished in the middle of the pack in stolen bases. They didn't have enough hybrid pitcher candidates in 2022 and they had to go back to a regular rotation. We'll have to see about openers moving forward. The league-wide data suggests that they do work, but Cherington expressed desire that the team's future roster won't need to use them as often moving forward.
Even in some failure or mixed results, when you get under the hood and check the thought process, the methodology is sound. Sometimes a good process yields to a bad result, but if you learn from it, it wasn't a fruitless endeavor. In the same vein, getting good results with a flawed or unsustainable process -- like the over-reliance on sinkers not so long ago -- can just lead to more problems down the road.
This season is going to be the most pivotal for this regime thus far. They have to take another step forward. Time will tell if they can do that. If they fall short, it's not going to be because they were behind on the times again. They have learned from those mistakes.
