On Feb. 14, pitchers and catchers will report to Bradenton, Fla. to start another year of Pirates baseball. And with any new year, there are plenty of questions that will need to be answered before they open the regular season in Miami on March 28.
This year's team should have less random outsiders trying to earn playing time, and instead more young players who have come up through the system. Part of this rebuild has always been trying to acquire as many talented young players to try to inspire competition. This spring seems to be a year where that vision is finally going to be put into practice.
Today, we're going to look at three major jobs that should be up for grabs this spring training. We could split hair at a position like catcher, but the most likely outcome is Henry Davis and Jason Delay split the division of labor in some fashion. The odds are good that both will make the team anyway. These other jobs could have major-league or roster spots on the line.
SECOND BASE
For years, it looked liked Nick Gonzales and Liover Peguero could be the Pirates' double-play duo of the future, but since Oneil Cruz is still at shortstop, that's going to force one of them to second base.
Neither did a whole lot at the plate in the majors last season. Gonzales struggled against high spin pitches and posted a .616 OPS. It sounds like he is making some changes this winter to get his swing back to where he wants it to be.
“Offensively, there were just some things that with my swing that had slowly creeped in that really didn’t show up in college or earlier in my career, the minor leagues," Gonzales said at PiratesFest. "Just things that baseball does. You don’t realize that you’re slowing hunching over and your swing is slowly changing over the course of a few months, just trying to change things or work on different stuff, seeing the ball better, whatever it may be. You look back and you go, ‘Oh, wow.’ Look at video from a few years ago and look at video from earlier this season and you see, ‘Oh, OK, there’s a big difference there. I need to get back to where I was.”
Peguero had a .653 OPS in the majors, but hit 20 home runs across all three levels of pro ball he played last season. If that power can translate to the majors, it would be a nice complement to Cruz at shortstop.
"I did know I had that on me," Peguero said at PiratesFest. "I'm a big believer that I am one of those that can hit 30."
Both could slide over to shortstop too, but they don't have the same positional flexibility as Jared Triolo or Ji Hwan Bae, so it looks like this is second base or bust for these two. It's also hard to see the Pirates keeping both in the majors if only one is the starter. They both need consistent playing time.
Prediction: Peguero starts at second base, Triolo is a bench player, Bae and Gonzales start in the minors
Of all the positions up for grabs, this is probably the most up in the air. That offseason after a rookie season can yield big things, and while I see this primarily as Peguero vs. Gonzales at the moment, Triolo or Bae could also break out too. For now, though, I'll go with Peguero since he took a big step last year. I don't feel all that confident with that pick, though.
AT LEAST ONE ROTATION SPOT
The Pirates would like to add more to their rotation before spring training starts, but it's far from guaranteed. They've swung and missed at some international pitchers, most recently Yariel Rodriguez, but they have still be able to add a couple veteran lefties in Martín Pérez and Marco Gonzales. Mix in Mitch Keller, who has grown into an All-Star, and the Pirates have at least three guys they can pencil into their opening day rotation.
After that, it's fuzzy.
It was just last year that Roansy Contreras, Luis Ortiz and Quinn Priester all looked like future rotation members, but after a turbulent 2023, they have to earn their spot now. If the Pirates don't acquire another major-league starter, their odds are pretty good, at least to start the year.
Paul Skenes is almost certainly not going to start the year in the majors. He hasn't pitched on a five-day rest cycle outside of a few brief minor-league outings last year, and it's hard to see the Pirates risking a potential year of team control for him to learn that routine in the majors. Jared Jones just ranked as the No. 74 prospect in the game according to Baseball America and pitched half a season with Class AAA Indianapolis, but it's hard to see the Pirates rushing him to the majors unless they needed to. Same goes for Jackson Wolf, who was acquired last trade deadline. Sure, he has a major-league start under his belt, but that was out of desperation for the Padres. He'd probably be better off starting with Indianapolis since he has never made a Triple-A start.
JT Brubabaker and Mike Burrows should be ready to return around the All-Star break, but that's almost the theme for the Pirates' pitching options. The talent pool should get better and deeper as the year goes on, but it's fairly shallow to start the season.
The team made a couple runs to acquire Bailey Falter before picking him up at the trade deadline last year, and while he had some hiccups, the overall body of work was pretty solid before his final outing against the Reds where he allowed eight runs and was placed on the injured list almost immediately after. It's hard to see any of the non-roster invites making a serious run at a rotation spot, so Falter, Contreras, Ortiz and Priester appear to be competing for those last two spots, unless the Pirates add more. Keep in mind that Falter and Contreras are out of minor-league options, so they have to at the very least be stashed in the bullpen if they're healthy or the Pirates could lose them to waivers. They aren't in a spot where they can afford that.
Prediction: The opening day rotation consists of Mitch Keller, Martín Pérez, Marco Gonzales, Roansy Contreras and Bailey Falter
Ultimately, the lack of starting pitching depth puts the Pirates in a position where they can't afford to lose a starter. This gives them two former top 100 prospects waiting in the minors if necessary. Once the calendar turns to May or June, that pool of options should grow. If the Pirates do add another starter before the season starts, I would still lean a bit toward Contreras just given his potential upside.
RIGHT FIELD
With Davis set to get plenty of reps behind the plate in year two, that opens up right field, which was his normal stomping grounds last season. The Pirates are on the market for another outfielder to join Bryan Reynolds (who is expecting to stay in left field) and Jack Suwinski, but their main priority is the rotation.
Suwinski said at PiratesFest that he could see himself playing all three outfield positions this next year, but unless Bae breaks out offensively or the Pirates pick up a center fielder, it seems like Suwinski will get the bulk of the playing time in center field.
"I honestly felt really comfortable out there," Suwinski said. "I think a part of that is the guys on both sides of me. We were able to communicate well and just have a pretty good game plan going into it, like how we want to communicate with each other, how the wall is gonna play, how we think the crowd is going to be, things like that."
That leaves right field, and while Andrew McCutchen could potentially help out there, he isn't going to start in the field every day. There's playing time to be won.
So let's look at right field. Internally, the Pirates have a handful of outfielders to choose from, including the recently acquired Edward Olivares, who has posted a very healthy .278/.339/.532 slash line against left-handed pitching over the past two seasons. The Pirates needed a right-hander in the mix because most of their corner outfielders are lefties. Joshua Palacios and Canaan Smith-Njigba will both return, and Billy McKinney was acquired in a trade with the Yankees last month. All of them have some perks, as I wrote up in a recent Mound Visit, but I would keep an eye on McKinney. He seemed to really click after making some swing changes. If that's sustainable, he could be the other half of a quality platoon.
Prediction: Billy McKinney and Edward Olivares platoon in right field, Joshua Palacios and Canaan Smith-Njigba start in the minors
I tried justifying a way to keep Palacios on the roster, but between Reynolds, Suwinski, McCutchen, Olivares and McKinney, that would already be five true outfielders without much financial flexibility elsewhere. That doesn't even count Connor Joe, Triolo and Bae, all of whom can also play the outfield. Palacios has a minor-league option remaining, so he's the odd-man out.
McKinney and Olivares lean into a very strict platoon, which is right up Shelton's alley for how he likes to use his not yet established players. It could take two roster spots, but there's a way a platoon could provide solid offensive output, at least if Olivares hits. The Pirates have other left-handed options in case McKinney or Palacios or Smith-Njigba don't pan out. They really don't have another righty besides McCutchen or Joe, the latter of whom will probably spell Rowdy Tellez at first base plenty when there is a lefty on the mound.
