Mike's Beer Bar War Room: Path to the playoffs lies with running game

After a dominating home win over Cincinnati, the Steelers are now 8-7. And although they need plenty of help, their playoff hopes are still very much alive. Regardless of who their quarterback is for the final two games of the season, the Steelers need their running game going to have a fighting chance at clinching a berth.

The Steelers put up 34 points against Cincinnati after averaging 15.9 points per game coming into that contest. And over their previous five games, the Steelers averaged just 13.4 per game, losing four of those five. The Steelers' 24 points in the first half last week was the highest point production by this team since 2016. The Steelers have scored 30-plus points in one game in each of the past two seasons, both games coming at home against Cincinnati. 

Are the Bengals just a good matchup for the Steelers? Probably, but there might be more to it. Obviously, they are an opponent that the coaching staff knows very well, but Cincinnati is also a terrible run defense, especially in this latest game without their top run defender, DJ Reader. 

Why is that important? This season, the Steelers' wins have been over the Browns, Raiders, Ravens, Rams, Titans, Packers and now twice over the Bengals. In terms of EPA, the Browns have the best run defense of that group and are currently seventh. But Cleveland, like Cincinnati that comes in 26th and Baltimore that is ranked 14th, is a common opponent. And frankly, you can often throw out rankings and such things in AFC North games. 

Meanwhile, the Raiders are 17th in run defense EPA, the Rams are 11th, but weren’t nearly this good when they played the Steelers. Tennessee ranks 12th and Green Bay ranks 22nd. The Steelers' losses came against the 49ers (29th), a game in which the Steelers quickly abandoned the run, the Texans (6th), Jaguars (19th), Browns (7th), Cardinals (29th), Patriots (2nd) and Colts (23rd). 

Maybe a better barometer for this exercise is yards per carry allowed. New England is best in the league in this metric and Houston is second. Those two defenses lead the league by a wide margin. Jacksonville is 10th and Cleveland is 12th. The 49ers are 19th, Arizona is 29th and Indianapolis is 15th. 

If you average out the defenses that the Steelers have defeated, they average out as the 16th-best run defense in terms of yards per carry compared to 13th-best against the teams the Steelers defeated. 

While that might not seem like a massive discrepancy, it is much larger than you might think over the course of nearly an entire NFL season. 

The outlier loss here is Arizona, but the Steelers did run the ball 31 times for 130 yards in that game. However, they lost the turnover battle, missed a field goal and failed on a fourth down opportunity. Missed field goals and fourth down attempts are basically the same as a turnover, so by this logic, the Steelers were minus-3 in turnover differential (as well as losing Kenny Pickett midgame) in this game, which was more than their effective running game could overcome. 

But let’s break it down even further. In the Steelers' eight wins, they have rushed for a total of 970 yards, good for 121.3 yards per game. When they lose, the Steelers average just 97.6 rushing yards per game. Again, this isn’t a cavernous difference. But look at it this way: That is about the difference of three more first downs per game -- all on the ground -- while eating clock and punishing the opponent, all while allowing the defense to rest. 

The good news? Seattle’s run defense per EPA is only better than two defenses. While they are 27th in terms of yards per rush allowed for the season at 4.5, they have given up 5.6 yards per carry over their past three games, which is worst in the league. In Week 18, the Steelers get the Ravens, who are 14th in EPA per rush allowed and 22nd in yards per carry. 

And let’s take this is another step and examine the best running teams in the league on early downs. It is a direct reflection of the best teams in football, and if the Steelers strive to reach such a tier (next year at the earliest most likely), they will have to excel at running the ball on first and second downs. The Steelers are 15th in EPA running the ball on early downs, which obviously isn’t bad. But it isn’t good enough. 

The best offenses in the league in this metric?

1. San Francisco
2. Baltimore
3. Miami
4. Buffalo
5. Los Angeles Rams
6. Detroit

Folks, those are the best offenses in the NFL right now, and there is an extremely good chance that all six of those franchises end up in the playoffs. And while there are some fantastic quarterbacks on those offenses, running the ball well early on in a set of downs makes life so much drastically easier on those passers, particularly Brock Purdy, Tua Tagovailoa and Jared Goff -- all of whom are fine players and having strong seasons. But none of these three quarterbacks (which will be the case for the Steelers in the foreseeable future) are considered Josh Allen/Patrick Mahomes superheroes that can just put their entire offense on their backs.

On their first possession of the game, the Steelers began the drive deep in their own end. With two tight ends on the field both to the right side after the motion, Najee Harris followed that heavy side of the formation on first down with an attitude run out of the gate to get the offense in a much more comfortable position. 

Take note that not only did the Steelers employ 12 Personnel (two tight ends on the field), but Diontae Johnson was not on the field. Instead, Allen Robinson is the second wide receiver. And Robinson, as the second motion player, drives a Bengals defender off the field with a devastating block.

With a 7-0 lead after George Pickens took the second play of the game for an 86-yard house call, the Steelers began their second drive -- which would end up a 10-play touchdown drive that started on first down -- with this Harris run to get the offense ahead of the sticks. The Steelers only had a long run of 13 yards against Cincinnati, but their ground game was extremely effective on runs like this one. 

After a well-designed screen to Jaylen Warren for six yards on first down, Harris has another attitude run that falls just short of the sticks on the Steelers' second play of the second half with the rain pouring. This second down run set up an easy short conversion on third down and is just another good example of how valuable running the ball effectively on early downs is in the NFL. 

There will be much debate this week if the Steelers should stick with Mason Rudolph at quarterback or go back to Pickett. And there are strong cases for both sides of that argument. However, if the Steelers offense can’t run the ball effectively in Seattle against one of the league’s worst run defenses, and then again in Baltimore against the Ravens' very average run defense, it might not matter who is at quarterback.

The Steelers' run game not only fuels the offense, but it is the backbone of the entire team with its ability to establish a physicality that this team thrives on, as well as protect a battered, old defense that absolutely needs to play as few as snaps as possible the next two weeks.