Despite being embarrassed in back-to-back weeks by 2-10 football teams and squandering a 7-4 record, the Steelers are still in control of their own playoff fate. Win out, and they'll clinch a playoff berth. However, next on the schedule is another 7-6 team that's trying to book their own ticket to the postseason.
Here's a breakdown of what Indianapolis brings into Week 15:
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Record: 7-6
Standing: Second, AFC South
Last result: Lost to Bengals, 34-14
THE TREND
The Colts entered the 2023 season under a new regime. Shane Steichen took over as head coach after two successful seasons as offensive coordinator of the Eagles. The hiring hoped to get the most out of star running back Jonathan Taylor and most likely influenced the selection of quarterback Anthony Richardson in the 2023 NFL Draft.
So far, Steichen's team has thrust itself into a very crowded AFC playoff picture, despite not being a finished product on either side of the ball and dealing with significant injuries. The most impactful injury was losing Richardson for the season after only four games. But, backup Gardner Minshew has taken over and performed well enough within Steichen's system to keep the Colts in the running.
The Colts played up and down through the first half of the season, resulting in a 3-5 record. However, the Colts pulled off four straight wins over the Panthers, Patriots, Buccaneers and Titans to improve to 7-5, but then had that streak snapped with a lopsided loss to Jake Browning and the Bengals.
The Colts won't be going away in the playoff picture. At least, that's how the Steelers have to treat this matchup. Per EPA, only three teams have an easier schedule to close out the season than the Colts. So, the Steelers need all the tiebreaker advantages they can get as they push for a playoff spot.
THE QUARTERBACK
Minshew is a career backup, but has the ability to execute plays in the system in which he plays. Let's face it, in today's NFL, teams have to have some semblance of decent quarterback play in order to have any kind of success. Minshew's found a way to be at least serviceable under Steichen.
The numbers don't leap off the page. Minshew's completed 63.2% of his passes for 2,524 yards, 11 touchdowns and eight interceptions in nine starts and 13 total appearances this season. Steichen isn't handcuffing Minshew either. They're letting him throw the football. Over the past three games, Minshew has attempted at least 39 passes.
Minshew is a similar type of backup as Mitch Trubisky. He's going to take shots. That will result in interceptions, at times. The Steelers should have their opportunities to take the ball away. But, Minshew will also connect on throws downfield, as he did against the Bengals last week:
NFL NEXT GEN STATS
I'll do the math for you on throws between 10-plus yards downfield: He completed 7 of 11 passes. That's the kind of stuff that can stretch out defenses.
The Steelers have to be buttoned up with their coverage in this game. Minshew will likely have at least a couple of turnover worthy throws. The Steelers must take advantage of it. With the way the offense is playing, the Steelers need all of the advantages they can get.
THE OFFENSE
Under Steichen, the Colts' offense is producing more across the board. Compared to the 2022 season, the Colts are averaging 0.4 more yards per play, 24.7 more passing yards per game and 0.7 more rushing yards per game. Most importantly, the Colts are averaging 24.2 points per game, which ranks eighth in the NFL. Last year, the Colts averaged only 17.0 points per game, which was second-worst in the NFL.
The Colts have a modest rushing attack, ranking 16th in the NFL with 110.5 yards per game. Taylor has typically been the focal point of the Colts' offense since his breakout 2021 season in which he finished as runner up for the Offensive Player of the Year. However, a contract dispute was why he missed the first four games of this season. And, he's now missed the past two games with a thumb injury.
Under Steichen, the Colts' passing game has really blossomed. Michael Pittman is big reason for that, as he's having a breakout season. Pittman ranks fourth in the NFL with 95 receptions and is only 16 yards away from his second 1,000-yard season with four games left on the schedule. It goes without saying, but Pittman can make just about any catch on the field:
— DK Pittsburgh Sports (@DKPSmedia) December 15, 2023
Pittman averages 9.8 targets per game this season and has gotten 11 or more in four straight games. During that time, Pittman has 37 catches and 391 receiving yards. He now has eight or more catches in six-straight games, the longest streak in the NFL, and 10 of 13 games this season. Keenan Allen is the only player in the NFL with more targets than Pittman.
However, this offense isn't exactly clicking on all cylinders heading into Saturday. Since their Week 11 bye, Indianapolis is converting just 22.2% of its third downs, the worst in the league during that stretch. They also mustered only 46 rushing yards and 2.6 yards per carry against the Bengals last week, which doesn't bode well against a Steelers defense that allows only 3.5 yards per carry with Cam Heyward on the field.
THE DEFENSE
The Colts aren't exactly a defensive juggernaut. However, the main thing the Steelers have to account for when facing the Colts is an unrelenting pass rush.
The Colts are tied for third in the NFL with 42 sacks, and they sack the quarterback on 8.8% of dropbacks, which is sixth in the NFL. And, they've done that with a true collective effort. Not only do the Colts have 13 different defensive players with at least one sack this season, they have four with over five: Samson Ebukam (8), Kwity Paye (7.5), Dayo Odeyingbo (6.5) and DeForest Bucker (5.5). Only one other team has four players with five or more sacks.
Ebukam can be very dangerous off the edge. He's shown plenty of flashes of being explosive at the release and can beat just about any tackle in the NFL:
— DK Pittsburgh Sports (@DKPSmedia) December 15, 2023
The Colts are also pretty dangerous at forcing turnovers, as they're tied for seventh with 21 takeaways. But, there are yards to be had against this unit. Their pass defense ranks 17th with 226.1 yards allowed per game, but quarterbacks are averaging 7.3 yards per attempt against this unit. Only eight teams have a worse mark. Indianapolis is even worse against the run, as they're tied for 26th in the NFL with 131.5 yards allowed per game.
Getting the ball out quickly is the best way to beat this defense. Opposing passers are getting the ball out of their hands in 2.49 seconds against the Colts. Just two defenses face a quicker time to throw. What bodes well for the Steelers is Mitch Trubisky being much more efficient when he gets the ball out of his hands in 2.5 seconds or less, completing 35 of 50 passes for 315 yards (6.3 YPA) with three touchdowns and no interceptions. When he holds onto the ball longer than 2.5 seconds, he's completed only 16 of 34 for 148 yards (4.4 YPA) with zero touchdowns and three interceptions.
THE SPECIAL TEAMS
Matt Gay handles the placekicking duties, and he's completing 82.1% of his kicks. He's missed at least one field goal attempt in the 30-39, 40-49 and 50-plus range, and he's also missed an extra point this season. Rigoberto Sanchez handles the punting for Indianapolis, and he's averaging 47.6 yards per punt. He's placed 32.1% of his punts inside the 20-yard line. Isaiah McKenzie handles both kick and punt returns. He's averaging 8.9 yards per punt return with a long of 32 yards. Dallis Flowers, who used to handle kick return duties and had an 89-yard return against the Steelers last season, is out for the season with an Achilles injury.
THE INJURY REPORT
• Jonathan Taylor, RB (thumb) -- Taylor missed practice all week and was ruled out on Thursday, missing his third straight contest. With Taylor out, Zack Moss will continue to lead the Colts' rushing attack.
• Braden Smith, OT (knee) -- Smith was knocked out of the Colts' Week 13 win over the Titans after sustaining a knee injury on the first drive of the game. He's been unable to participate in practice since then, and the Colts ruled him out on Thursday. Blake Freeland will once again get the nod as the starting right tackle in Smith's absence.
• Jaylon Jones, CB (ankle) -- Jones started out the week as a limited participant, but was able to fully practice on Wednesday and Thursday. The Colts cleared him to play as he doesn't carry any injury designation into Saturday.
• Julius Brents, CB (quad) -- Brents was listed on the Colts' injury report all week, but was able to fully participate in all three practices. The rookie out of Kansas State is cleared to play.
• DeForest Buckner, DT (back) -- Buckner's participation in practice dwindled throughout the week. He started as a full participant on Tuesday, was limited on Wednesday, then did not practice on Thursday. Yet, the Colts cleared him to play. It'll be interesting to see how many snaps he plays.
• Will Mallory, TE (rib) -- Like Brents, Mallory was listed on the Colts' injury report all week, but was able to fully participate in all three practices. He's cleared to play.
• E.J. Speed, LB (knee) -- Speed joins Brents and Mallory as another Colts player that was listed on the injury report but fully participated all week in practice and will play on Saturday.
• Zaire Franklin, OLB (illness) -- Franklin didn't appear on the injury report until Wednesday, but was able to fully participate on that day and Thursday. He doesn't carry an injury designation into Saturday, so he's good to go.
• Segun Olubi, LB (hip) -- Olubi injured his hip in Wednesday's practice, then didn't practice Thursday. He was initially listed as questionable for Saturday's game, but was ruled out on Friday. However, the San Diego State product primarily plays on special teams, so him not playing shouldn't have much of an impact on the Colts' defense.
QUOTABLE
"They’re a physical group. That’s kind of been their M-O with (Mike) Tomlin there. They’ve done a really good job. Defensively, it starts up front -- (Alex) Highsmith and (T.J.) Watt are really good players then (Cam) Heyward, a veteran guy inside and then (Joey) Porter Jr., the rookie corner is a good player. Patrick Peterson, obviously a veteran player, and Minkah Fitzpatrick in the backend. A really good defense -- I think they are plus-10 in the turnover margin so they do a good job of taking the ball away. Ball security is going to be at a premium for us this week, which will be big. Offensively, (George) Pickens is an explosive player, and they got the two backs that can run. It’ll be a heck of a challenge, good to be home though at Lucas Oil with our fans – that’ll be exciting on Saturday." -- Head coach Shane Steichen's takeaways from watching the Steelers' film
"Well, you know that he’s been in this league, he’s been in a few systems. They trust him with the ball. They trust him to be the guy. We just have to take care of him. They still have dangerous weapons on the outside in Pickens and Diontae (Johnson). Obviously, they have a great run game that he’ll be playing off of too. We just have to be able to stop that." -- Linebacker Zaire Franklin on preparing for Mitch Trubisky at quarterback
"Yeah, I feel like when you play the Steelers defense they have their own brand of ball. It’s very physical, tough, their backers play downhill, they are really good upfront. I think it’s still that brand of ball that they’ve always carried." -- Quarterback Gardner Minshew on preparing for the Steelers' defense
