Mike's Beer Bar War Room: The fallout of Pickett's ill-timed injury

Kenny Pickett is going to miss time after his injuring his ankle on Sunday and the subsequent surgery along with the recovery process. While it can be argued that the Steelers possibly are in better hands with Mitch Trubisky and his stronger pension for attempting passes with a higher degree of difficulty than the Steelers' second year passer, the fact remains that this Pickett injury could set the franchise back.

And, it comes at a terrible time. 

The reason for that: The Steelers are going to miss a crucial evaluation period for Pickett, who has now played a game and a half without Matt Canada. The post-Canada offense was an ideal chunk of games to really dig into Pickett as a player/prospect. There were no more excuses. The Steelers need to know whether or not Pickett is the guy to build the team around, and what their plan of attack this upcoming offseason will then be in turn.

Pickett has shown a history of coming back quickly from injuries and possibly the coaching staff and front office will get a couple of regular season games in Seattle and Baltimore, as well as possibly playoff game(s) to really get a better idea if Pickett should enter next season as the unquestioned starter or not. As it stands right now, that is a player evaluation that can only be considered incomplete. 

Sunday was the fourth game of Pickett’s short career in which he exited due to injury and was unable to return. Pickett has attempted 713 passes in the 25 career games he has appeared in. He has thrown just 13 touchdown passes. 1.8% of Pickett’s passes have resulted in a touchdown. That isn’t good. In fact, Pickett is the only quarterback with 500 or more pass attempts that has a touchdown rate under 2% in the entire Super Bowl era. He’s the only one. 

Pickett has also struggled in the red zone since coming to the league. To be fair, that isn’t unusual at all for very young NFL quarterbacks. Pickett averages just 6.3 yards per pass attempt and currently has a QBR 38.1 in 2023, which is only ahead of Mac Jones, Bryce Young and Zach Wilson. EPA per play, success rate and completion percentage over expectation are even better barometers of a quarterback’s effectiveness than QBR. Of the 31 qualified quarterbacks, Pickett comes in 25th, 26th and 27th, respectively, in these three categories.

Numbers aside, Pickett also isn’t an overwhelming physical specimen from a body type or pure passing ability perspective. Maybe, you haven’t heard, but he does have small hands, although that doesn’t seem to be an issue in the pros to this point. Pickett has been inconsistent with his footwork and timing over his short NFL career and can perceive pressure that isn’t there. There are also countless instances when Pickett has turned down an open throw, an aspect of quarterbacking that's not measured by stats: 

This is just one example, and a small example, but this past Sunday, the offensive scheme has a short route to Najee Harris designed if Pickett were to get into trouble. That is exactly what happened, but Pickett doesn’t make the easy outlet throw for the first down. Instead, he scrambles the other direction for a gain well short of the sticks.

But Pickett also has plenty of enticing qualities. While he isn’t Lamar Jackson as an athlete, Pickett is a very twitchy mover with good acceleration and light feet. He throws well on the run and has impressive improvisational skills. He shows good ball skills and fakes. Pickett has shown stretches of throwing the ball with well above average accuracy and touch, including his time at Pitt. 

He has a great head for the game and is greatly respected by his teammates. Pickett is known to have rare leadership skills and his teammates and coaches do believe in him. He is tough and extremely competitive with great work ethic and preparation. He has been exceptional -- amazing, really -- at protecting the football, as well as finding ways for the Steelers to win games, often playing his best when the game is on the line in the fourth quarter: 

There are many examples of Pickett’s late game heroics, but none better than this in brutal conditions last year against the Raiders. 

Next season will be Pickett’s third season. And before you know it, the Steelers will have a decision to make concerning picking up his fifth-year option, and then potentially giving him a contract extension as their franchise quarterback. These things happen quick in the NFL and having a starting quarterback on a rookie contract -- maybe the best team-building advantage an NFL team can have right now -- isn’t a luxury the Steelers will have much longer. 

However, none of that even matters if Pickett simply isn’t good enough to compete with Joe Burrow and Jackson in the AFC North, and Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud, Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa within the conference. Now that doesn’t mean that Pickett must be quite at the level of those star quarterbacks, but he does have to at least be close if he is deserving of big money. 

The Ravens are up four points with just over a minute left on the clock. Pickett shows off his quick light feet while buying time moving to his left and drops a fantastic touch throw -- a much more difficult throw than you might think -- to Harris to win the game. 

Kirk Cousins is injured right now, but he is set to a free agent after this season. He would be pricey, but how good would the Steelers be with Cousins next year in addition to another incoming draft class, and maybe some spare parts added in free agency? In what looks like a very good class, should the Steelers possibly consider a quarterback on Day 1 or early in Day 2 of the draft? It is never a bad idea to add more quarterback talent/options if there is even the slightest uncertainty surrounds the starter. 

Chances are that Pickett will be the Steelers' opening day starter in 2024, and that makes all the sense in the world. But as it stands with five more games to play, and hopefully postseason action, the ability to accumulate more data to make this crucial decision has now been massively compromised. And, that is a real shame.