NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- Derek Shelton took his seat at his podium in the lobby of the Gaylord Opryland Convention Center and quickly stated the obvious in response to his first question about the rotation.
"I'm thinking that we're going to need to add, obviously," Shelton said. "We ended the year with just two traditional starters."
The situation has gotten more dire since the end of last year when one of those starters, Johan Oviedo, underwent Tommy John surgery last month. The news came as a bit of surprise after he finished the season in what appeared to be relatively good health, but what was believed to be pain that comes with pitching a full season lingered into the winter.
"When you accumulate the number of innings that he did as a starter, there's going to be some downtime where you don't feel great," Shelton said. "Then that continued, and that's when we decided that we're going to have to get this looked at, and that's when we found out what the situation was."
With that, the rotation is now Mitch Keller and a bunch of question marks. That's going to need to change. Especially since the Pirates' only signing this winter is not even for a pitcher, but a split-contract for potential backup catcher Ali Sánchez.
So... is anything close?
"We've got a bunch of hooks out there," Ben Cherington said. "Some of the hooks have free agent bait on them and some of them trade, and I don't know which one we'll get the bites on. Anticipate that we will get a bite and that might inform the rest of it. When that happens, hard to say. It can happen while we're here, it can happen next week. It can happen anytime. Hard to predict. But we have a lot of hooks out there. We want to add starting pitching in some way, in some fashion, and I expect we will."
So... maybe?
Where exactly are those hooks? It's hard to say. Cherington said they have had internal conversation on "just about every starting pitcher on the market." A report by Cardinals writer Jeff Jones Monday indicated that the Pirates are monitoring Jack Flaherty's market in case he doesn't get a long-term deal. Flaherty is probably one of the few free agent starters who could potentially match Oviedo's projected results for next year, though he is coming off of a season where his ERA is north of 5 and he ended it in the Orioles' bullpen. Even with Oscar Marin and the pitching team's solid track record of late with reclamation projects like José Quintana and Tyler Anderson, he comes with substantial injury risk and is not exactly a safe bet, even if his market doesn't fully develop.
The Pirates will add someone, eventually. Perhaps it ends up being multiple starters, even. They can't start the year with the same rotation plan they had last year, sans Oviedo. But if you are looking for someone who provides higher upside like an Oviedo or Keller, that pitcher might already have to be in the organization.
"Regardless of who we add, we're going to also be relying on continued development of our younger group, also," Cherington said. "We're going to count on our guys stepping up, and whether that's all between now and spring training, or all between now and April, or between now and June, we'll find out. I expect that a lot of those solutions will be internal, but we're working hard to add externally to the group right now."
While the Pirates didn't have a set rotation after Keller and Oviedo, there is still some upside with their other young pitchers. Luis Ortiz and Quinn Priester entered last year on MLB Pipeline's top 100 prospect list. Roansy Contreras is still viewed as a starter, Cherington confirmed, and he said the hope is the right-hander will report to Pirate City early on in the new year. The team had coveted Bailey Falter for several years before acquiring him last trade deadline. Contreras and Falter are out of minor-league options, so this will be a pivotal year for them, and while that foursome may not be enough to be the majority of a rotation for a contender, they could fill a few spots.
"Luis Ortiz, Bailey Falter and guys who may not be sort of the first names mentioned as people talk about prospects, but these [guys] are really important guys and guys who the offseason is really important for," Cherington said. "We put a lot of energy into offseason planning with that entire group of pitchers."
That group of available arms should also grow as the year progresses.
"There's no guarantee with this, but if we're betting, anticipate having more options as the year goes on than maybe we might in April," Cherington said. "There's a fixed number of innings we're trying to fill, but some of that is kind of weighed towards the front of the season, perhaps. We can't guarantee that. Things change in the game all the time, but factoring that into in terms of the type of guys we're going after."
That group of starting pitchers should increase because, A. JT Brubaker and Mike Burrows should return from Tommy John surgery around June or July, and B. the Pirates have another batch of prospects nearing the majors. That very likely could potentially include last year's No. 1 overall pick, Paul Skenes, and top 100 prospect Jared Jones, and it may not be too outlandish to think that Anthony Solometo or Bubba Chandler could be on the radar down the homestretch of the season after finishing last season with Class AA Altoona.
There's a case to be made that the Pirates should just call up Skenes to pitch opening day, then. The counterargument is Skenes only has 6 2/3 professional innings under his belt and was limited to very short outings as he transitioned away from the traditional full week of rest he got between starts in college.
"He's never pitched on five days [rest]," Shelton said. "He's never pitched on six days. So, the trials and tribulations of the Major League season or of a minor league season is really important. We have to have those growing pains first before we can consider him to be part of the Major League team."
Shelton was non-committal when asked if Skenes will be up in the majors in 2024, but it seems safe to assume Skenes will continue his fast track to the majors once he shows he can pitch on shorter rest. That comes with time, though, and the Pirates don't have a ton of that to spare. Especially since the goals for 2024 are higher. The Pirates improved by 14 wins last year. Another double-digit jump should put them right in the playoff picture.
And after Shelton closed last season by telling his team to remember the feeling of what their strong September felt like moving forward, piecing together a quality rotation is going to be vital for elevating the Pirates to a contender.
"I think this sense of urgency continues to go year after year and that will be part of the messaging as we get there," Shelton said. "I'm not fully vetted on where, what it's going to be or the terminology that I'm going to use that first day in Bradenton, but I think the fact that we were able to take a significant step forward was very meaningful and will kind of continue to go from there."
