Playoff possibilities lead to interesting questions for Lions, this year and beyond

ALTOONA, Pa. -- The way we judge Penn State football will change in a gigantic way beginning next season, when the College Football Playoff expands to 12 teams.

This is what everything ultimately will boil down to:

1. How often will the Nittany Lions make the playoff?

2. How often can they win multiple playoff games/make a legitimate run?

Note that I didn't include win a national title there. Sure, that is the ultimate goal, but the bottom line is Penn State can become an elite program even without winning it all. That's as long as the Lions can win at least two games and get to the final four on a somewhat consistent basis.

What everyone needs to understand is that the bracket will play a HUGE role in all of this.

Just like with the men's NCAA Tournament in basketball, teams are often at the mercy of their bracket. You might match up well with one team but not another, and as you move on, sometimes you get a big break because someone else loses and so you end up getting an easier opponent. I've said this forever: The NCAA Tournament is NOT about finding the best team. It's about winning six consecutive games, which is what it takes to capture the title.

With that in mind, let's take a look at a couple of interesting recent brackets. 

Wow, wouldn't that look good for Penn State?

The bracket is from a few days ago, when the Lions were No. 11 in the College Football Playoff rankings. They would open against Washington, and then play Florida State in the second round.

In that scenario, I could totally see Penn State winning two games and advancing to the final four. Maybe some of you disagree, but probably a lot of you agree that the Lions would have an excellent chance to beat both Washington and Florida State.

The Huskies have a good offense, but they haven't faced a defense anywhere near as good as what Penn State would throw at them. Michael Penix Jr. is a good quarterback, and he has a lot of weapons, but the Pac-12 has not prepared Washington to face the Lions' defense.

Sure, Penn State's offense could have some trouble with Washington. This is not, by any stretch, a good offense. But for the sake of discussion, this would at the very least be a pretty good matchup overall for the Lions.

With a win, they would play Florida State, which doesn't have its star quarterback, Jordan Travis. That's a huge loss for the Seminoles, and one that makes them much more beatable.

Essentially, this bracket would give Penn State a very good chance to win two games and get to the final four.

But what about this bracket?

That bracket is from The Athletic and is based on the current CFP rankings.

Penn State would open with Texas, and then would face Michigan in the second round.

That is a much more difficult bracket than the previous one above. Texas, to me, is a better team than Washington and would likely beat Penn State, ending the Lions' season in the first round. But even if they did win that game, they would lose to Michigan in the second round.

So, from this view, Penn State actually would be in line for a better draw as the No. 11 seed than as the 10 seed.

Under no circumstance would the Lions want to face Michigan or Ohio State in the second round. Not this year. Not any year.

The major beef fans have with Penn State is that it cannot win the big game. But in reality, the Lions cannot win big games against Ohio State and usually against Michigan. So, if we're talking potential playoff runs in the future, the first thing we'll always have to look at is when that matchup might come against the Buckeyes or Wolverines.

Compared to facing those two, games against just about anybody else would be deemed easier and more winnable, save for Georgia and Alabama in most years.

WHY DOES IT MATTER?

Penn State should make the playoff six or seven times a decade, at least. Going back to 2016, the Lions have finished in the top 12 six times now in eight years, so that would have been six playoff appearances had the field been 12 all this time.

The assumption, therefore, should be that a playoff appearance alone will not be good enough over time. The Lions are going to have to win playoff games in order to prove that the program is taking the next step.

Just like in college basketball, perennial NCAA Tournament teams aren't judged on simply making the tournament, they're judged on how well they do there. In that sport, a Sweet 16 appearance is typically considered a success for most programs, while the biggest powers expect a number of Elite 8 runs and at least an occasional Final Four.

When it comes to football, and Penn State in particular, I don't see the fan base being happy with just merely making the playoff and then always losing in the first round.

So, what should the expectation be?

Let's start with this question: What percentage of playoff appearances should come with one victory?

I'm gonna go with 67 percent, or two out of every three trips. Maybe the number is higher than that for a lot of fans. But there will be years when Penn State is a 10-12 seed and will be the underdog in the first-round game. That would be the case this season.

Still, that first-round game would indeed be winnable, and after already having two losses, losing right away in the playoff would be a third loss and thereby have fans questioning a lot of things in the program.

Alrighty, so how about this: What percentage of playoff appearances should come with two victories?

Hmmm, this is where things get interesting.

I will say 25 percent, which is on the low end, and I'm sure lower than many fans would like.

If you think the number should be as high as 50 percent, that's a little far-fetched. Because two wins means getting into the final four, and let's face it, Penn State is not now and has not been for a long, long time one of the four-best teams in the country on a consistent basis.

You could say getting two wins one out of every three playoff appearances (33 percent) should be a reasonable goal. Maybe. To make the math easier, say Penn State makes the playoff nine times in 12 years, that would mean three final four appearances in the 12-year span.

Doable? Perhaps. And if that were to happen, we could make the case that the Lions would indeed be in that elite group of programs.

I still have a hard time seeing Penn State getting into three final fours over 12 years, though, simply because that second-round game would often be against an outstanding opponent -- such as the possibility of playing Michigan in the second round this year.

LOOMING ISSUES

Getting away from the playoff hypotheticals and looking at what's coming up ...

• The No. 1 priority of the offseason is to hope defensive coordinator Manny Diaz returns for another year. He's already been in touch with the folks at Duke about that head coaching vacancy. Duke paid its last coach $3.5 million a year, so you gotta figure the next one will be in that ballpark. I suggested in the feed that Penn State should try and up Diaz's salary to the $3 million range, which might keep him around a bit longer. I mean, which job is better: Penn State DC at $3 million with playoff hopes and lots of job security, or Duke head coach at $3.5 million with the hope of going 7-5 and perhaps only lasting there a few years?

• Cornberback Kalen King didn't have the kind of year many expected and was not even selected first-team all-Big Ten. Given that, you have to wonder if he will need to take a long, hard look at coming back instead of entering the NFL draft. If he's anywhere near the first round, which many have believed all along, then he should turn pro. But if his stock has slipped so much that he's third round or below, then he should probably come back for another year.

• The same goes for linebacker Curtis Jacobs, who was only honorable mention all-Big Ten. A lot of people seem to really like Jacobs as a player, but I've always felt he was sort of an average college linebacker. He would be wise to come back for another year to try and boost his stock, and that certainly would help Penn State's defense next season.

• On offense, tight end Theo Johnson could turn pro, or he could come back for another year. That's a huge decision, because Johnson does so much as a blocker and receiver, and the offense would definitely love to have him back.

• Which bowl game will Penn State end up in? We'll find out Sunday, and the guess here is the Peach Bowl. Let's just hope it's not against Tulane, though, because that would be kind of a no-win situation for the Lions.

• I see a whole bunch of players opting out of the bowl game, and rightfully so. Any player who is looking to turn pro should be very cautious right now, and playing in a meaningless bowl game just isn't worth the risk. Yes, even a New Year's Six bowl game is meaningless when you've potentially got millions of dollars at stake. Expect LT Olu Fashanu, DE Chop Robinson and DE Adisa Isaac to opt out, as well as players such as King, Jacobs and Johnson if they decide to turn pro. If any of those guys plan to return, then certainly they should play in the bowl.

• We should find out soon who will be the next offensive coordinator. James Franklin has been looking at candidates for several days now, and he doesn't want the process to linger too long because the most desirable candidates are all in hot demand and could end up going elsewhere. There was a report that Kansas OC Andy Kotelnicki is a leading candidate, but beyond him, no other major names have emerged publicly.