Which prospects should Pirates protect from Rule 5 draft?

After several years of navigating through a roster crunch ahead of the Rule 5 draft, 2023 could be a lot quieter. Hopefully, it's going to be one of the final aftershocks of the changes in the abbreviated 2020 season.

To cut down on spending during the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2020 draft was limited to just five rounds. This is the first year college players from that draft are now eligible for the Rule 5 draft, but in the Pirates' case, they really don't have any decisions to make. They took six players that draft. Two have already made their major-league debuts and are on the roster: Nick Gonzales and Carmen Mlodzinski. Jared Jones was drafted out of high school and is protected another year. Of the remaining three picks, two have already been traded (Nick Garcia for Connor Joe and Jack Hartman for Ji-Man Choi), and the other, Logan Hofmann, was released in July. Former early-round picks are prime Rule 5 candidates, but the Pirates quite literally have no one from that draft left to lose this year.

That doesn't mean they are completely out of the woods yet, though. International players who signed in 2019 or high school players who were drafted that year are now eligible, not to mention other top prospects who snuck through the draft last year. The Pirates' roster currently sits at 37 players, so they can protect some prospects ahead of Tuesday's deadline to set the reserve list. Let's take a look at the players who are on the bubble, because while there are some talented players here, there isn't a slam dunk, no-doubter.

INF TSUNG-CHE CHENG (No. 13 on Baseball America Pirates top 30)

The Pirates haven't announced their minor-league awards yet, but this reporter would hazard a guess that Cheng will win something at the end of the year. He absolutley tore up Class High-A Greensboro, hitting .308 with a .908 OPS and 30 extra-base hits in 57 games played, including nine triples. Greensboro is very hitter-friendly, but he showed a great combination of power, speed and contact.

His turn in Class AA Altoona did not go as well. His walk rate went down, the ball didn't fly off the bat and he had a .656 OPS in 66 games played. It wasn't the largest sample size and that jump to Double-A is usually called the second-largest jump in competition in pro ball (the first obviously being the majors). A disappointing turn in Altoona ended his season on a sour note, but for half of the season, he was arguably the Pirates' top hitting prospect.

Cheng has a high-enough ceiling that he could impact the major-league infield somewhere down the road, but he probably isn't on the major-league radar for 2024. Do the Pirates want to protect a prospect who isn't going to help them in a pivotal year, or would that spot be better used on a veteran?

RHP BRAXTON ASHCRAFT (No. 14 on Baseballl America)

I got some pretty rave reviews about Ashcraft in Altoona, and it's easy to see why. His fastball can rev up to the upper-90s, his breaking stuff has spin and the slider is a "hammer," as a scout described it. It's safe to say he's come back at full strength after his 2021 Tommy John surgery.

He posted a 1.35 ERA and 23 strikeouts over 20 innings with Altoona, but that was over eight starts. It wasn't uncommon for him to go just one inning and hand the ball over as he was being built back up from his surgery, so it's safe to say the Pirates haven't taken the training wheels off quite yet. That's not necessarily a bad thing, as health is paramount when coming back from Tommy John, but there are still some question marks about how durable he is.

While Ashcraft has never made a professional appearance out of the bullpen, but he didn't throw more than four innings in any outing this season and the stuff may translate better out of the bullpen. The Pirates already added a good handful of rookies to their roster last year (Mlodzinski, Colin Selby, Hunter Stratton, Kyle Nicolas), so there may not be a clear spot for him. If he can start, then adding him is a no-brainer. If he's a reliever, it's more of a toss up, but I could see other teams being interested in stashing him in a bullpen if he's up for grabs.

OF/1B MATT GORSKI (No. 12 on Baseball America)

Gorski didn't get a roster spot last year despite being named the organization's Willie Stargell Slugger of the Year, where he had a 20-20 season and climbed to Class AAA Indianapolis. He only got a cup of coffee with Indianapolis at the end of the season in 2023, as he hit a bit of a wall with Altoona. He had another 20-20 season between AA/AAA, but his .296 on-base percentage and 25.5% strikeout rate with the Curve was definitley concerning.

I've had it suggested that Gorski's footwork needs to be cleaned up, and I would agree. The big leg kick is one thing, but the back foot would tend to skip forward, resulting in some occasionally awkward swings. Don't get me wrong, there is legitimate potential here, too, including some of the best raw power for any right-hander in the system:

Teams passed on Gorski last year, but there was still interest in him from other clubs after the draft. It's easy to see why a team would be willing to gamble that they could be the club to unlock his full potential, or why they would steer clear of him for now. Gorski also can play first base, which is a plus given the Pirates' outfield depth in the majors.

1B MALCOM NUNEZ (No. 26 on Baseball America)

Nunez came over from the Cardinals in the José Quintana/Chris Stratton trade a year ago, and was surprisingly not added to the roster after a very strong 2022 in Class AA. It appeared the Pirates caught a break when he wasn't taken in the draft, but 2023 wound up being a disasterous season for Nunez, who battled a shoulder injury for most of the year and posted a .671 OPS when he was on the field for Indianapolis.

He's also still just 22 years old.

Nunez is a tough case. He is unquestionably the Pirates' best first base prospect, but first base is a position that can be filled fairly easily other ways, like an outside addition or moving a player who lost a position battle elsewhere. Could the Pirates continue to do that for a couple more years? There was a reason why they coveted Nunez for years, and he has the pop to be a middle of the order bat.

But if the Pirates weren't willing to add him to the roster after his best offensive season, should they do it after his worst?

UTL JASE BOWEN (Unranked on Baseball America)

Bowen has torn up the Arizona Fall League (.290/.355/.500, four home runs in 111 trips to the plate) and had a remarkable showing at the Fall Stars home run derby. That's coming off of a 23 homer, 24 steal season for Greensboro that earned him a cup of coffee in Altoona to end the season, but there are some red flags in his game. The most pressing is his 24.5% strikeout rate, which is in line with his career norms. If he can maintain that mid-20s something power, that can cancel out that strikeout rate, but Greensboro is a very hitter-friendly environment and he had never hit 20 homers before this season.

Bowen can play all three outfield positions and first base, and until this year also played second and third. Perhaps he could click as a utiltyman, and that could potentially be appealing for other teams, but I have a hard time believing there would be too much demand for a utiltity player who only has 33 plate appearances above A-ball. Another big year could put him on a major-league radar, but right now, he could probably sneak through the draft.

PREDICTION: TSUNG-CHE CHENG AND BRAXTON ASHCRAFT

I can't see Gorski or Nunez being added this winter after middling campaigns, and Bowen just isn't quite ready for a roster spot yet. They might stand out more in a less talented class of eligible players, but I'm more inclined to believe this Rule 5 draft is less busy than usual. Ashcraft gets a spot because he's the type of pitcher that almost always gets selected in the draft, and Cheng provides some infield depth and an insurance policy in case nobody runs with the second base job in the majors this year.

Other notable players who are Rule 5 eligible: RHP Brennan Malone, OF Hudson Head, RHP Edddy Yean, OF Rodolfo Nolasco, OF Matt Fraizer, 3B Dariel Lopez