UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. -- Remember how Michigan shredded Penn State on the ground last season for 418 yards, and everybody -- including James Franklin -- worried about the program needing to be able to stop the Wolverines on the ground?
Yeah, that's not really the biggest concern heading into Saturday's gigantic showdown at Beaver Stadium.
Here are the most important names and position groups that could determine this game, starting with the biggest challenge Penn State will face.
1. QB J.J. MCCARTHY
Michigan's offense is much different this time around, and will rely heavily on an outstanding passing game led by second-year starting QB J.J. McCarthy.
Three weeks ago, Jim Harbaugh heaped this heavy praise on McCarthy.
"I think J.J. is a once-in-a-generation quarterback. J.J. has shown to be on path to be the best quarterback in Michigan history."
Now, can we really believe anything Harbaugh says these days? He is, after all, embroiled in a major sign-stealing scandal that has engulfed the sport, and he was suspended the first three games this season for lying to NCAA investigators during their probe of recruiting violations.
Still, whether you want to believe Harbaugh's hype about McCarthy, from this view, there's little doubt that he is the single most important player in this game against Penn State.
McCarthy has completed 75.7 percent of his passes for 2,134 yards with 18 TDs and three interceptions during the Wolverines' 9-0 start. The competition hasn't been very good at all, so we have to question those numbers the same way we really have to question everything about what Michigan has accomplished.
There's no denying, though, that McCarthy is a dangerous weapon who can take over games with his arm. And with this Michigan offense, he really has to, because the Wolverines do not have their typical outstanding running game.
Michigan has been one the best rushing teams in college football the past few years, because Harbaugh makes sure to stay committed to the run no matter what. But this year, the Wolverines rank just 50th in the nation in rushing offense, with 167.1 yards per game, and Harbaugh has been put into a situation where he's had to address external concerns about the running game.
It's been a total reversal from last season.
"You recall last year there was a real emphasis on could we throw the ball down the field?" Harbaugh said earlier this week. "It was weekly that we’d address that in the press conference here. It got to the point, even last year, where teams were saying, ‘We’re going to stop the run and we’re going to make J.J. McCarthy beat us.'
“We’ve seen how that has worked out."
All of this makes preparing for this Michigan team this year such an interesting challenge for Penn State. Following last year's 41-17 drubbing in Ann Arbor, Franklin made his famous comments about how "everybody thinks they're Aaron Donald," referencing that defenders want to be undersized and still think they can stuff a tough running game.
Penn State made the adjustments within the program, as all of the primary defensive line players added significant weight during the offseason in order to be ready for that kind of Michigan team.
But this is a different kind of Michigan team now that it's relying more on the quarterback and the passing game. So, even if the Lions do have a good bit of success stopping the Wolverines on the ground, they have to be concerned about the potential damage McCarthy can do through the air.
As of now, McCarthy is the third-highest betting favorite to win the Heisman Trophy at +650, behind only Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. (+150) and Oregon QB Bo Nix (+200).
If McCarthy has a big game against Penn State's outstanding defense, it could help his odds in a big way. Or, the Lions could essentially destroy his hopes if they can shut him down and find a way to beat Michigan.
"Their quarterback has been a differentiator for them, completing almost 76% of his balls," Franklin said. "Also has the ability to make plays with his feet, either running for first downs or extending plays."
2. PENN STATE'S SECONDARY
Is Kalen King for real? Can he come through with a big game at cornerback, after struggling against Ohio State star Marvin Harrison Jr. in what turned out to be the game-changing matchup?
What about the rest of the secondary? Johnny Dixon has been really good, along with Daequan Hardy and some others. But this is a whole new challenge for all of them.
Ohio State's Kyle McCord wasn't really all that great against Penn State, but he always had Harrison around to make big plays. McCarthy is a significantly better quarterback than McCord, and even though he doesn't have a Harrison, he does have a very good group of wide receivers and tight ends.
Penn State's game plan last week was to allow Maryland QB Taulia Tagovailoa to hit open passes, then make immediate tackles and not let the receivers get yards after the catch. Tagovailoa started the game an amazing 17-for-17, and yet the Terps were still losing because Penn State's defense came up with a couple of stops on running plays.
Manny Diaz's game plan must be different this week. He can't allow McCarthy to just pick apart the defense, because that's exactly what the QB will do. And then, in short-yardage situations, Michigan has a good enough running game to move the chains, or it could just keep relying on McCarthy and, say, the tight ends to come through.
We can tout Penn State's secondary all we want, but the truth of the matter is that the Lions haven't faced much competition when it comes to opposing quarterbacks. Tagovailoa and the Terps did damage through the air, but didn't have a complete offense and kept shooting themselves in the foot with bad plays, bad calls or turnovers.
You have to figure that Michigan probably learned a lot about how to attack Penn State's secondary from that Maryland game film. Now it's up to King and his teammates in the defensive backfield to prove they're ready for this challenge.
“I definitely think this is a statement game for us,” King said.
“A lot of people around the country believe that Penn State is unable to take the next step,” King added. “I feel like this game is a perfect opportunity for us to go out and prove ourselves against a powerhouse team like Michigan.”
3. LIONS' DEFENSIVE LINE
Closing out the theme of trying to stop Michigan, a whole lot of what the Lions try to do begins with getting pressure on the quarterback. This is one of the best defenses in the country for a number of reasons, and one big one is that Diaz is able to bring pressure from numerous different players out of a number of different looks.
It will be imperative for the Lions to get in McCarthy's face.
It also will be imperative for the Lions to be highly competitive against the run game. They were not competitive at all in last year's debacle, getting embarrassed by the 418 yards rushing.
Will standout defensive end Chop Robinson be able to play in this game? He was knocked out of the Ohio State game with an injury and hasn't played the past two weeks. He was practicing this week, though, and having him back would be a major plus.
It will be up to Robinson, Hakeem Beamon, Dvon Ellies, Adisa Isaac and the rotational guys to be equally good against the run and the pass in this one.
"I feel like they're a real down-the-field attacking offense now," Isaac said. "Last year obviously they were heavy in the run. I feel like they've changed up a little bit, but I feel lile we're doing a good job throughout the week keying in on all their little tricks to be on top of it."
4. DREW ALLAR'S BIG STAGE
He is the biggest reason why there was so much hope for the Penn State program coming into this year. And now he needs to show that he's THE MAN in this type of game.
Allar played great at Maryland. Fine. It was promising and showed his potential. But Maryland's defense isn't very good.
Michigan's defense is awesome, just like Ohio State's. And against Ohio State, Allar was pretty terrible.
This could end up being Allar's coming-out party on the national stage. This could be the moment he catapults himself into a leading Heisman contender next year. This could be the game he shows NFL scouts that he deserves to be considered as a potential top-five draft pick in 2025.
All of that is on the table for Allar. And oh yeah, if he can lead Penn State to a victory, there's a chance for the College Football Playoff and possibility of a national title.
To put it bluntly, everything this young man has worked for his entire life can pay off in a huge way if he has a big game. Not a game manager kind of game. Penn State isn't gonna win with him going 14 of 27 for 170 yards and one TD.
Allar is going to have to make plays. A lot of plays. No, he doesn't have great wide receivers. Yes, there's a chance his offensive line will get eaten up at times and force him to make plays under pressure, either with his arm or his legs.
Hey, if Allar truly is who everybody hopes he is, then he's got to come up big on this kind of stage. He came up small against Ohio State, so now comes his chance for redemption.
“It’s definitely a great opportunity,” Allar said. “Michigan is a great team on both sides of the ball. Tremendous amount of respect for them. They are a very well-coached team. They’re very sound. They don’t make a lot of mistakes. There’s not a lot of busts in the secondary. It’s going to be a challenge. It’s something we look forward to.”
What has changed for Allar since he faced Ohio State? First of all, there was that big interception he threw late against Indiana. That could have cost Penn State the game, but it didn't. Instead, Allar came right back with a long TD pass to win the game, leading everyone to believe that finally getting that first interception out of the way had freed him up to be more relaxed and even take more chances.
But again, taking chances against Maryland's defense isn't the same kind of challenge as facing Michigan.
“I think really the past two weeks I’ve been focused on being calmer in the pocket just with footwork and stuff, and that’s really helped me,” Allar said. “The rhythm Coach (Mike) Yurcich was able to get the offense in helped me a ton. For me personally, it was staying calm in the pocket, only taking what I need in the pocket, no unnecessary movements that can make me drift into more pressure. I think I’ve done a good job the last few weeks and need to build on it.”
5. FATMAN'S TIME TO SHINE
Kaytron Allen has lived in Nicholas Singleton's shadow since he arrived at Penn State. That was always going to be the case, since Singleton was the national high school player of the year, and then Singleton wowed everybody with a bunch of long touchdown runs as a freshman.
But let's be crystal clear here: Kaytron Allen is Penn State's best running back right now, especially for this kind of game against a great Michigan run defense.
Singleton just has not shown much ability to run over and through defenders. Sure, if he gets a crease he can take it to the house, but those creases haven;t come this season. Plus, he just looks a step slower.
When Allen gets the ball, he grinds forward for an extra yard or two. And in this kind of game, those extra yards can mean a world of difference.
"I can't be denied," Allen said this week. "That’s just what’s always going through my mind. I don’t want to be denied. I just want to get in the end zone."
“We talked about toughness, (and how) it'll be one of our key ingredients as a team and an offense," Franklin said. "And I think he's one of the guys that does a phenomenal job setting that tone for our team, fires up the sideline, fires up the offensive line. He's having a really good year. I think he's respected throughout the league with the way he runs and his running style.”
Penn State ran the ball well early on against Ohio State -- including Singleton -- then Yurcich got away from the run way too much and had Allar throw the ball 42 times. That was never going to work as an effective game plan against the Buckeyes.
In this game, as long as Penn State doesn't get down big early, look for the Lions to be much more patient with the run game. But in doing that, they need to give Allen the bulk of the carries and let him try to wear down the Michigan defense.
Allen seems to get better and better as the game goes on, so instead of rotating him and Singleton as usual, now is the time to declare Allen the top tailback and treat him like that.
