UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. -- Saturday's contest against UMass might be the most insignificant Penn State football game of this generation.
Given what waits ahead next week, and with the Nittany Lions favored by 42 points, it's really not worth anybody's time to focus much on the blowout we're about to see.
So, let's go ahead and get a jump on what really matters -- Ohio State.
That's the season. Part one.
Part two will come in another month, when Michigan visits Beaver Stadium.
Is this Penn State team good enough to win either or both of those games? What else do the Lions need to show or prove to us that they can go into Columbus and win?
Let's take a look at four key areas.
1. Will the special teams be able to make some special plays?
If you believe Penn State can beat Ohio State, how do you see the game playing out? It'll be close, right? Because there's no way, you'd think, that the Lions will go into the Shoe and blow out the Buckeyes.
OK, so if it's a close game, you gotta think a field goal or two (or more) very well might determine the outcome -- or at least the strategy of what might happen late in the game.
With that in mind, let's get to know Alex Felkins a little bit.
"I think I'm just much more confident in myself based on what I actually see for myself when I'm out on the field and how I see the ball fly," Felkins said recently. "And I think that goes hand in hand with me just having four years of college experience, being on the field and starting from day one of my freshman year at Columbia and learning all of those lessons throughout the years."
Felkins is a pleasant young man, well spoken and very intelligent. He's got a lot of experience, as he mentioned, kicking for three seasons at Columbia before going into the transfer portal and landing at Penn State.
Felkins did not, mind you, have a great career at Columbia. He attempted 54 field goals and made only 36, so 66.7 percent. His long was 53. He was consistent for what he was, with this yearly breakdown:
2019: 9 of 14 (64.3 percent)
2020: No season because of COVID
2021: 16 of 24 (66.7 percent)
2022: 11 of 16 (68.8 percent)
So basically, he would make two kicks and then miss a third. For his entire tenure there. When he decided to transfer, he admitted he didn't get a lot of the kinds of opportunities he was looking for, almost certainly because not many college programs are looking for kickers who have made only two-thirds of their kicks over three years.
"I didn't get as many schools as I would have hoped," Felkins said. "My goal going into the portal was to pick the best possible program that I could play at to give me that big-time college experience that I've been dreaming about for a long time."
He found that opportunity at Penn State. But Felkins didn't win the starting job to open this season, with that going instead to Sander Sahaydak. As things turned out, Sahaydak missed two field goals in the opener against West Virginia, and after what had been a close competition for the job in camp, Felkins was given his opportunity and wound up taking over as the starter.
Felkins has made 7 of 9 field goals so far, with a long of 47 at Northwestern. Being able to hit one from that distance on the road is a good sign, but in all honesty, there was a tiny crowd on hand for that Northwestern game, and it's not like Felkins faced any real pressure on that kick.
"I've always been talented, but I think the mental game is something that I've had to put a lot of work (into)," Felkins said. "And I think that part, the mental game, has gotten significantly better for me since I've gotten on here.”
That last part could wind up being huge if indeed Felkins is called upon to attempt a big kick at Ohio State. There will be 100,000 fans screaming for him to miss, and the season very well could be on the line for Penn State depending on how he fares.
"The difference, to be real upfront, kicking in an Ivy league game is totally different than Beaver Stadium," special teams coordinator Stacy Collins said when asked about Felkins' experience.
And kicking in Beaver Stadium will be totally different than kicking in the Horseshoe.
How confident can anyone be that Felkins will make those kicks? The kind of high-stakes kicks that he's never even attempted in his life?
We'll all have to wait until next week to find out.
2. The Trey Wallace factor
Penn State must be able to extend the field with some deep passes.
I know, I know, this was addressed in comic fashion earlier this week with my whole "speaking Japanese" dealio with James Franklin. Hopefully everyone got a kick out of all that. And hopefully everyone realizes that Franklin and Penn State's coaches absolutely do understand that they need to extend the field in the passing game.
Let me make one point perfectly clear: If the Lions prove they can throw the deep ball efficiently, they could win the national championship this season.
Yes, I absolutely do believe the whole thing is THAT important. Because the defense is plenty good enough. And if you've followed my coverage leading up to and during the season, you already know that I believe the lack of a deep passing game hinders all parts of the offense, since it allows defenses to disrespect receivers deep and then load up the box to slow down the running game.
So, if you connect the dots with me, if Drew Allar can hit some deep balls, loosen up defenses and make them respect that aspect, then the running game could thrive with Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen.
Man oh man, that Penn State team would be extremely dangerous and fun to watch.
This is where Harrison Wallace III comes into play.
Trey played the first two games before missing the past three with an undisclosed injury. He had seven catches for 72 yards against West Virginia, and with him on the field alongside KeAndre Lambert-Smith, it made Penn State's offense more flexible and more dangerous.
Without Wallace, though, there just seems to be a big dropoff to all the other wide receivers. Maybe Dante Cephas can continue to make strides and become a bigger factor, but you never know if that will happen.
Ohio State hasn't really seen this offense much with both KLS and Wallace on the field at the same time. Mike Yurcich hasn't had a chance to call many plays while having the use of his two best wideouts. So, it's certainly possible that having Wallace back in the mix could be just what this offense needs to start taking some shots down the field.
Franklin was asked Tuesday about the trust factor between Allar and the wide receivers. It was a good question, because if a quarterback doesn't trust that his guy can indeed go up and make a play, then it stands to reason that the QB will be hesitant to throw those kinds of passes.
Trace McSorley trusted his guys in 2016. He had superstar pass catchers such as Chris Godwin and Mike Gesicki. Allar doesn't have a guy like that, but maybe he can start developing that kind of rapport with KLS and/or Wallace.
"Being able to have Trey back and KeAndre on the field while those other guys are developing those roles and those opportunities and that confidence I think will be helpful," Franklin said.
"But I think getting Trey back is a huge piece of that puzzle. I think it helps KeAndre. I think it helps Drew. I think it helps our team. I think it helps our offense. I think it helps Coach Yurcich in calling the game. But I think that will really help us having those two guys both on the field at the same time."
3. How good is Penn State's defense really?
It's fantastic.
I think.
But ...
Here's where the Lions' opponents so far rank in the country in total offense:
• West Virginia -- 99th
• Delaware -- not ranked because it's FCS
• Illinois -- 80th
• Northwestern -- 121st
• Iowa -- Dead freaking last, among 130 FBS teams
Wow. And I truly mean that -- WOW! I knew those opposing offenses were bad, but not until I just checked the national stats myself did I realize just how horrible they truly are collectively.
To say that Penn State's defense hasn't been remotely tested yet would be a gigantic understatement. So even though the Lions can boast having the No. 1 overall defense in the country -- allowing only 210.6 yards per game -- the truth of the matter is we have no idea if the defense is ready to take on Ohio State.
The Buckeyes don't have their traditional great offense this season, and they don't have a brilliant quarterback who can just take over games. But they do rank 38th in the nation in total offense with 434.4 yards per game, while Penn State is 45th at 430.4.
Running back TreVeyon Henderson is expected back this week against Purdue after missing last week's game against Maryland with an injury. But standout wide receiver Emeka Egbuka is questionable for this week.
The Buckeyes have two potential first-round wide receivers in Egbuka and Marvin Harrison Jr., and they will give Penn State's outstanding secondary a major challenge. The big key will be how quarterback Kyle McCord holds up against the Lions' pressure, and if he can deliver the ball on the money against good defensive backs.
Penn State defensive coordinator Manny Diaz was asked a couple of weeks ago about Ohio State, and he gave a quirky answer that was interpreted by some in Buckeye land as sort of taking a subtle shot at their offense.
"My opinions are very strong and are going to stay to myself," Diaz said.
If indeed Penn State's defense is as good as many of us believe, then we probably will see a low-scoring game next week. But if a lot of these Penn State numbers are only padded by playing weak offenses, then Ohio State has enough playmakers to stretch the field and give the Lions some problems.
4. The other guys
We get caught up in sports overanalyzing our own team and often don't try to look at things from the other team's perspective.
The bottom line is, Ohio State has already been tested -- twice -- while Penn State has played nobody yet (although West Virginia has had a nice start at 4-2).
If we're really being honest, we know a whole lot more about Ohio State than Penn State right now. Whatever we think we know about the Lions is based on potential, while to a much higher degree, the Buckeyes have already proven themselves.
They went to Notre Dame and won. 17-14, on a last-second touchdown. The Buckeyes did not play well in that game, but goodness, you gotta be impressed with their resolve in finding a way to win that kind of tough road game early in the season.
"I went back and watched the TV copy of the game, and I'm sitting there watching that last drive and my heart's pounding like I don't know what's about to happen," McCord told reporters in Columbus. "But man, that's about as tough of a win as you can get, and I'm just proud that we were able to pull it out and I'm excited to keep building off of it."
After a bye week, Ohio State fell behind 10-0 at home against a good Maryland team. But the Buckeyes' defense took over, and they outscored the Terps 37-7 after that for a 37-17 win.
We can say what we want about how Maryland always kind of folds in big games like that, and sure enough it happened again. But there's also no denying that Ohio State again faced some big adversity in that game -- something Penn State has yet to face all season -- and the Buckeyes looked terrific in the second half.
"It was like one of those things -- OK, what’s going on here?” Ohio State coach Ryan Day said after the game about the slow start. “But that’s the game, and you got to respond. So I thought we did respond well in the second half."
One thing to take note of in that Maryland game is that McCord played very well, completing 19 of 29 passes for 320 yards and two TDs. He was 21 of 37 for 240 yards at Notre Dame.
McCord isn't C.J. Stroud or Justin Fields. But he's the starting QB at Ohio State, so you know he's got the goods. They don't just put any old game manager back there. McCord was the No. 8 QB recruit in the nation coming out of high school, so Penn State fans shouldn't be thinking he's just some ho-hum guy who won't cause many issues.
If you add a lot of this up, you can make the case that Penn State could be catching Ohio State at a bad time. That's a team that might have been more susceptible to a loss early on, but with McCord finding his rhythm and also having a great defense, the Buckeyes are very much a national title contender. As always.
Now, as I write that, Ohio State still has a game Saturday at Purdue, and even though the Boilermakers aren't very good, there are some trap elements there for the Buckeyes.
Look for Ohio State to win comfortably, and for Penn State to destroy UMass. Then, come Saturday evening, we all can really start looking ahead to what should be a tremendous, season-shaping matchup next week.
