Halicke: Getting Johnson back will give offense 'massive' boost

Despite the Steelers' bye scheduled a bit early this season, it couldn't have come at a better time.

Injuries have taken a heavy toll on the Steelers during the initial five weeks of the season, and the hope is to see several players make their return when they travel west to meet the Rams in their next scheduled game. Among these anticipated returns, Diontae Johnson's soon expected comeback from injured reserve might be the most crucial.

The Steelers' offense has been dreadful throughout the first five weeks of the season. They rank 26th in the NFL with 4.5 yards per play, rank 27th with 187.8 passing yards per game, rank 30th with 80.4 rushing yards per game, rank 29th with 15.8 points per game, rank 24th with a 37.0% third down conversion rate, and they rank dead last in the NFL with an abysmal 28.6% red zone conversion rate. This is also a unit that has produced only five touchdowns in as many games, all coming through the air.

As I've previously pointed out in a couple of these Chalk Talk features (Matt Canada's concepts/Kenny Pickett's misfires, poor blocking on the offensive line), injuries are not the sole reason for this anemic performance. But, getting Johnson back into the offense gives Canada and Pickett a much needed weapon that can also open things up for the rest of the unit.

For starters, Pickett needs a go-to guy that can get open at a moment's notice. When the Steelers need a play, particularly in the "weighty downs" that Mike Tomlin stresses so much, having a guy who can just beat the man in front of him is a great weapon to have.

Without Johnson, the Steelers simply don't have that in their arsenal. George Pickens is a man among boys in a lot of ways. His ability to make contested catches with elite length, strong hands and superb body control can tip 50/50 balls in the Steelers' favor. However, Pickens has still not shown a consistent ability to gain separation in coverage. According to NFL's Next Gen Stats, Pickens' average separation at the point of the catch is 2.1 yards. Only three qualifying receivers in the NFL have a lower average.

Allen Robinson and Calvin Austin III are the two players that have stepped up the most since Johnson injured his hamstring in the season opener. Yet, neither one has been able to create consistent separation in coverage. Robinson's average separation is 2.8 yards and Austin's is 2.5 yards. What makes those numbers more concerning is the average cushion they get at the line of scrimmage. Robinson's average cushion is 7.0 yards and Austin's is a whopping 7.5 yards, according to NFL's NGS. 

Their alignments have little to do with these numbers. Robinson has lined up in the slot on 72.4% of his snaps, and Austin has lined up out wide on 73.6% of his snaps. Defenses simply aren't pressing these two.

Here's an example of where Robinson really needs to beat the man in front of him:

This was the fourth play on the game-winning drive against the Ravens last Sunday. Pickett and the offense needed to drive down the field. Robinson gets an in-breaking route against a linebacker (granted, a very good one in Patrick Queen), but can't get enough separation to give Pickett a bigger target. 

Now, if you look at Johnson's NGS numbers from last season, he had the same average separation as Robinson has with the Steelers this season (2.8 yards). However, Johnson got that separation despite being pressed much more in coverage. Johnson's average cushion last season was only 5.3 yards. For some context, Justin Jefferson, the NFL's Offensive Player of the Year, had an average cushion of 5.4 yards. Davante Adams' average cushion was 5.6 yards. Tyreek Hill's was 6.4 yards. He's pressed more than some of the game's best receivers.

We've already been through it, but Johnson gave Pickett wide open targets in crucial downs in the season opener. Pickett's misfires hurt the team badly, especially during all those three-and-outs to start the game. This one is particularly painful. It would have been a huge gain, and maybe even a touchdown if Johnson makes a man miss:

And, even though the Pickett found Pat Freiermuth for a touchdown on this drive, this miss to Johnson cost him the opportunity to get into the end zone after not scoring a touchdown at all in 2022:

I mean, look at the separation on that route compared to the one route I highlighted by Robinson against the Ravens. That's not Fred Warner in coverage, but the 49ers have elite off-ball linebackers, and Johnson made that play a slam dunk.

Johnson looked like a better receiver in the season opener, perhaps even motivated to emphatically put an up-and-down 2022 season behind him. I don't need advanced stats to show you that. His ability to separate and then create something after the catch was on full display, including the play where he hurt his hamstring:

Johnson's return can also open things up for Pickens. As much as the Steelers benefitted from two contested, back-shoulder completions in the win over the Ravens, that is not a recipe for success. Those type of throws can only happen in man coverage down the sideline, and even though Pickens is a human cheat code, it's still a low-percentage throw. In fact, those two contested catches were the first of the season for Pickens. According to Pro Football Focus, Pickens is now 2 for 11 on contested targets this season, a percentage of 18.2%. Canada won't and shouldn't rely on that as a catalyst for moving the ball down the field. It's just not sustainable.

Without Johnson, the Steelers faced three teams (Browns, Raiders and Ravens) that predominantly run man coverage on defense. In the game against the Raiders, there were multiple times in which Las Vegas operated in Cover 1 and had the single-high safety shade strongly over to Pickens' side of the field:

NFL.COM

I mean, that's either some serious respect for Pickens or complete disrespect to everyone else on the field. One safety strongly shading over to the weak side of the play when there's three receivers and a tight end on the other side? That won't happen with Johnson on the field. Teams can't and won't leave that much added room for Johnson to operate, especially with the cornerback lined up eight yards off the line of scrimmage.

Despite any other minor flaws in Johnson's game (drops, inconsistent YAC), Johnson is an elite route runner. He has been for a few seasons now. Getting a guy back on the field who knows how to get open seemingly at will forces defenses to honor that ability. That should give Pickens more one-on-one opportunities without as much safety help. It should also allow Austin to operate more out of the slot, where his skill set is a better fit. His route-running still needs plenty of refinement (bottom of the screen):

Austin needs more in-breaking routes to catches passes on the run until he gets better at running the deeper curls and comebacks where change of direction is critical for finding separation.

No, Johnson isn't a fix-all-solution to the Steelers' problems. They still need to run the ball effectively. They still need to collectively do a better job on first and second down. They definitely need to vastly improve in the red zone. But, if Johnson is to return from IR when the Steelers take the field in Los Angeles, it'll be really interesting to see what happens with Pickett playing better in recent weeks.

"He’s a really talented guy. We miss him a lot," Pickett told reporters on the South Side this week. "He helps move the chains. He gets great separation. He’s been a great teammate and leader in that room, as well, helping guys out. Getting him back is going to be massive for our offense. I think just by watching us, you can see that we’ve missed him."