Kovacevic: Penguins can't be counting on this goaltending depth

This summer's already seen the Penguins find a new general manager, a new first-ballot Hall of Famer, and an almost entirely new supporting cast.

And somehow, it won't be enough on its face.

It won't be close to enough, actually, and for the simple reason that Kyle Dubas could've added Erik Karlsson, all those depth forwards, and then thrown in the peak versions of Mario Lemieux, Jaromir Jagr, and the current roster will still need to pinpoint Tristan Jarry as its most important, most pivotal player. 

Not because of any cliche but, to be blunt, because there's no chance for this group, at this collective age, with this constitution, to climb into instant contention without a top-10 -- no, make that a top-five -- caliber of goaltending. I believe that. I've been writing it for the better part of this decade, and it never held more true than the 2022-23 NHL season, in which a lot else went right and there still weren't any Stanley Cup playoffs.

It's Jarry or bust. And that sentence couldn't be more literal in its intent.

Dubas' history in Toronto -- and he's spoken to this effect since his arrival in Pittsburgh -- strongly suggests that he sees evaluating goaltender as exceedingly challenging and, within this, that a lot of it comes down to luck. He's not alone in that thought. If anything, it's fed by a century of precedent, with executives having long feared, for example, drafting goaltenders in the first round.

So, in that spirit, his first offseason with the Penguins saw him amass a half-dozen goaltenders, all of them remarkably signed to NHL contracts ...

GETTY, WBS PENGUINS

Tristan Jarry, Alex Nedeljkovic, Casey DeSmith, Magnus Hellberg, Joel Blomqvist, Taylor Gauthier.

... until Casey DeSmith was sent out as part of the Karlsson trade, but that still left a handful.

Here's the thing, though: There can only be one backup at a time and, without DeSmith, that's very clearly Alex Nedeljković, which is ... oh, man, don't make me do this, OK?

For one thing, he's of direct Serb descent and born in the U.S. like me, and heaven knows we Serbs have enough natural enemies without turning on each other. And given that the world's already reaping the rewards of a Serb being the best men's tennis player ever (Novak Djoković), another Serb being the NBA's recent two-time MVP (Nikola Jokić), and even a recent National League MVP in baseball (Christian Yelich), we really ought to pull for each other, right?

For another, I've long admired Nedeljkovic's fire from afar. We Serbs are known for that sort of stuff, of course, having ignited World Wars 'n' at, so it's not a surprise. But it's also been easy to see why Mike Vellucci, one of Mike Sullivan's assistants, loved and trusted Nedeljković while coaching the AHL's Charlotte Checkers to the Calder Cup in 2019. And it's been equally easy to see why Rod Brind'Amour felt the same in similarly inspirational runs with the Hurricanes. And why Steve Yzerman later paid him $6 million over two years to play for the Red Wings.

Listen, the dude competes:

That was March 28 in Detroit. I covered that game. The Penguins needed it in every way and pushed hard, but the Red Wings ran off with it, 7-4, largely because DeSmith was awful.

It's only one night, which is never a fair sample size, but since it's an event most readers would recall, I've chosen the following examples of what makes Nedeljković who he is, in addition to that sprawling, wonderful save just above on Evgeni Malkin.

Now watch this:

The Jason Zucker goal's nowhere near Nedeljkovic's fault -- Geno's dynamic skating, Rickard Rakell's slick pass and some horrific Detroit defense stand out -- so that's not why I'm showing it. Rather, watch it once more so notice how far from the crease Nedeljkovic strayed on Geno's initial burst below the goal line. 

That's what can't happen. That's swimming. That's what separates reliable NHL goaltending from overdoing it. That's ... minor-league.

Another:

This one also isn't Nedeljkovic's fault. The Penguins are on a five-on-three, zipping the puck around, and Geno's finish felt flat-out fait accompli. But here again, that's not why I'm showing this. Rather, watch the replay that follows to see how far back Nedeljkovic's heels are into the blue paint. Practically over the goal line. And on top of that, watch how small he makes himself throughout the sequence. That benefits nobody in red. He's already 6 feet tall, same size as DeSmith and well below the NHL average, so this is the opposite of what's needed.

Another:

That's a Jeff Carter goal, and it's not in black and white. It's also on the power play, also far more the fault of the Detroit penalty-killers than Nedeljković. But look at the body language. Like a lobster yanked from the tank.

One last one:

Oh, my God, no. That's the easiest wraparound goal of Josh Archibald's life, I'm betting, at any level of hockey. And it's entirely because Nedeljkovic grossly over-commits to planting himself against the left post and making him small before Archibald emerges from the other side.

I'll reiterate that this isn't fair, this exercise. If I wanted, I could find nights that were even worse for anyone in the league last season.

In the same breath, though, I'm comfortably stating that it's eminently fair to cite what's up there as representative of Nedeljkovic's career, both the good and the bad:

• Of the 74 goaltenders who appeared in 15 NHL games last season -- his exact total with Detroit -- his .895 save percentage ranked 51st. DeSmith's .905 ranked 32nd and, for further perspective, Jarry's .909 ranked 25th.

• Within that same field of 74 goaltenders, Nedeljkovic's .797 save percentage against high-danger scoring chances ranked 58th. I love this advanced stat because it isolates on what should be a goaltender's greatest challenges and whether or not he rises up. Nedeljković doesn't. DeSmith's .835 ranked 24th, and Jarry's .802 ranked 53rd.

• The average distance of a goal against Nedeljković was 22.98 feet, which ranked 68th. DeSmith's 19.43 feet ranked an impressive 13th, and Jarry's 19.8 feet ranked 20th.

For the fullest picture, over parts of six NHL season, Nedeljković has played 103 games with 92 starts, a 2.96 goals-against average, a .907 save percentage and seven shutouts. In nine playoff games, all for the Hurricanes in 2021, he went 4-5 with a .920 save percentage.

Keeping this kind: The guy who just signed a five-year, $26,875,000 contract, including a $9 million signing bonus ... needs to outplay his pay.