NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- Kyle Dubas' transformation of the Penguins is ramping up after acquiring winger Reilly Smith from the Golden Knights for a 2024 third-round pick prior to the start of the NHL Draft here at Bridgestone Arena on Wednesday.
Smith, 32, is an original member of the Golden Knights' "misfits" from their inaugural season in 2017. He was one of their most important players over the last six seasons, and will now have his name engraved on the Stanley Cup for his efforts.
When Dubas and Mike Sullivan spoke at the draft, it was clear they coveted Smith's versatility.
"We think Reilly’s a great fit because he’s extremely reliable defensively, in addition to being able to produce very reliably," Dubas said. "[He] can kill penalties, can play left wing and right wing. He did that in the playoffs for Vegas and we view it to kind of being able to interchange him throughout the top of our lineup. With the cost being what it was — obviously this is a strange market for that — we just thought it was something that was too good for us to pass up."
With this year's crop of unrestricted free agents leaving quite a bit to be desired, Dubas explained last week that he would look to weaponize the Penguins' available cap space via trade to bring in players who still provide value relative to their cap hit from teams that are looking to shed salary. It's quite the tidy alternative to overpaying the top free agents, as there likely won't be a free agent of Smith's caliber who signs for less than the $5 million he'll count against the salary cap over the next two seasons.
"We’re really excited to add Reilly to our roster," Sullivan said. "I think he brings so much with the versatility of his game. One of the strengths of his game is his hockey IQ, on both sides of the puck."
Hockey IQ manifests itself in many ways, but one thing that stood out immediately upon reviewing Smith's game is that he frequently ends up in the right spot at the right time.
Kind of like this:
And this (while shorthanded, mind you):
And this:
While it might be difficult to quantify, Smith's timing is fantastic.
He's coming off his most productive season since 2017-18, potting 26 goals to go along with 30 assists in 78 games before adding four goals and 10 assists in 22 postseason games en route to a championship.
Here's a snapshot of his past three seasons, courtesy of JFresh Hockey. As always, I encourage you to focus your attention on the individual components instead of the large WAR (wins above replacement) percentile up top. You can read a full explainer on how to understand the cards here.
JFRESH HOCKEY
Smith isn't necessarily elite in any singular component of the game, but his isolated impact toward his team's ability to create quality offensive chances at even-strength ranks in the top quarter of league forwards, as does his power-play impact and penalty-kill impact.
One thing I find interesting, however, is that his defensive impact at even-strength grades out as replacement-level over the past three seasons. That differs from the positive reviews both Dubas and Sullivan left of his defensive game. There are two possible reasons as to why there might be a disconnect:
1. Defensive skill (intercepting passes, blocking shots, etc.) doesn't always correlate to good defensive impacts.
2. Smith is actually strong in his own zone at evens, but causes his team to concede chances because of something else he routinely does further up ice.
Whatever the case may be, the Penguins won't need him to be some sort of defensive menace at evens. The offensive generation and production combined with his special teams work will do just fine.
"I thought our penalty-kill was somewhat volatile this past year," Sullivan said. "We have higher expectations there, and I think Reilly’s a guy that can help us in that capacity."
Smith finished fifth among Golden Knights forwards this past regular season with 2.06 points per hour at 5-on-5. Here's what that looks like broken down and compared with the season Jason Zucker just had:
Zucker scored at double the rate Smith did during full-strength action, but the opposite was true when it came to assists, resulting in both players finishing with 2.06 points per hour.
Over the last three seasons, Zucker remains the better goal scorer and chance creator, but Smith's strong assist rate gives him the slight production edge at 5-on-5:
It's a very real possibility that last season was about as good as it gets for Zucker, whereas Smith produced at an even better rate in 2021-22. Then consider that Smith is a much safer bet to stay healthy than Zucker and it's easy to see why this trade was made.
The acquisition of Smith would logically spell the end of Zucker's time with the Penguins, but not so fast.
"It's certainly not closed at all," Dubas would say of the possibility of Zucker re-signing.
Dubas noted that he intends to continue building out the Penguins' depth. While Smith might be an upgrade over Zucker in terms of overall value, going from one to the other doesn't really help address issues further down the lineup.
Having both of them under contract might.
Smith's ability to play either wing opens up a brand-new can of worms if Zucker returns.
"One of the things we talked about is if (Smith) potentially played with Geno, for example," Sullivan said. "His ability to produce off the rush — Geno’s a pretty dynamic player off the rush, also. … Depending on where we utilize him, I think he can add that element to at least be a complementary part of that aspect of our game, regardless of where he ends up in our lineup. He’s a real good player. He’s gonna make us a better hockey team, without a doubt."
Now imagine a scenario in which one of Smith or Zucker is crushing it next to Evgeni Malkin while the other is playing on the third line. Sure, a competent third-line center will be necessary for success, but that's a long way toward a very solid top nine up front.
Jake Guentzel - Sidney Crosby - Rickard Rakell
Reilly Smith - Evgeni Malkin - Bryan Rust
Jason Zucker -- xxxx -- Alex Nylander (?)
It's going to take quite a bit more to fix the Penguins than a lone addition, but Smith's presence will allow for some flexibility, maybe even to the point that Zucker returns against the odds.
