North Shore Tavern Mound Visit: Davis exactly what Pirates need now

This past week's road trip was quite possibly the most frustrating in recent Pirates memory, which given the last couple years is saying a lot.

They embarked to Chicago in first place with a slate of games against division rivals. They returned home from Milwaukee win-less on the trip and now below .500.

It's clear they need a boost, and they're going to have one waiting for them at PNC Park.

Henry Davis, the 2021 first overall pick and the team's No. 2 prospect, will make his major-league debut Monday. It seems safe to assume he'll bounce around catcher and right field and perhaps get reps as the designated hitter (Austin Hedges and Jason Delay are both staying on the team for now, Derek Shelton confirmed Sunday), but where he plays in the field doesn't matter nearly as much as what he can do at the bat.

The Pirates' offense has been stuck in second gear ever since their 20-8 start. Since April 30, they are dead last in baseball in runs scored (146) and entered Sunday 27th in OPS in that stretch (.674). They haven't done much offensively, especially at the two positions Davis primarily plays. It pretty much goes without saying that Hedges and Delay are not a dynamic offensive duo. Their value is in defense and managing a pitching staff, but they still need to swing the bat at least three times a night. That usually isn't very productive. They haven't gotten much out of right field of late either, ranking 20th in OPS among the league (.731). Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski have put together good seasons, but they haven't gotten consistent production out of that third outfield spot ever since Connor Joe cooled down.

So is Davis up to the challenge of major-league pitching? Well, if his minor-league stats and peripherals are indicators, yes.

Davis started the year with Class AA Altoona where he mashed 10 home runs in 187 trips to the plate, slashing .284/.433/.547. He was promoted to Class AAA Indianapolis two weeks ago and pretty much continued where he left off, batting .286 with a .432 on-base percentage and .946 OPS over 10 games played. In both stops he posted a walk rate just north of 17% and quality batted ball peripherals.

Davis has averaged a 90 mph exit velocity with a 9% swinging strike rate, two very good traits for a hitter to have. Of the 159 hitters across baseball with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title entering Sunday, just 13 meet both of those criteria. Of course I'm comparing major-league results compared to Davis clobbering Eastern League pitching, but it's a good tool to assess what he could be in the future.

One of the hitters who met the exit velocity half of that equation but whiffed just a bit too much was Kyle Schwarber, someone I've been told a couple times is a good comp for Davis. Schwarber caught in college but transitioned into the outfield full time in the majors, and while Davis is going to get an opportunity to catch, the power profile lines up. Davis has great bat speed, gets the barrel to it and knows how to put it in the air. Schwarber led the National League in home runs last year. Not a bad guy for Davis to be compared to:

That's good for the future of the Pirates, but what about now? This year's team is still only a handful of games out of first place. Can he contribute to the 2023 team?

Not to be a buzzkill, but there is always the risk of a young player needing to adjust to the majors. Not everyone can be Corbin Carroll. We saw it a year ago with Oneil Cruz, but he got better as the season progressed.

But in brief sample sizes, when Davis has faced a major-league quality pitch, he's handled it.

One area the Pirates look at when determining if a player is ready for the majors is their results against high velocity fastballs. It's great if you can crush 90 mph from a Quad-A guy in Indianapolis, but that doesn't do much to show if you can hit major-league pitching. The Pirates put extra stock on fastballs that are at least 95 mph, which is above-average speed even in the majors.

Davis doesn't have a huge sample size here -- he's only seen 73 of these high-velo fastballs and has just 25 total plate appearances -- but the results are good. His batting average may be just .222, but his slugging is .444 with a 7% swing and miss rate and 90.5 mph exit velocity. For reference, the major-league averages against fastballs at least 95 mph are a .239 batting average, .384 slugging and 90.1 mph exit velo.

We're talking about a small sample here -- and one that is going to be tested far more frequently now -- but Davis has done as well against major-league fastballs at or better than the MLB average. That's a really good foundation. Hit the fastball and work from there.

Davis also gives the Pirates something they have sorely needed for some time: Right-handed power. If Andrew McCutchen bats leadoff and the switch-hitter Reynolds hits second, that's' about it for the Pirates' right-handed pop, unless Joe or Ke'Bryan Hayes are on a hot streak. Opposing teams have been targeting Suwinski, often going to lefty relievers late in games to neutralize his bat. Put Davis a spot or two behind him and teams could start thinking twice about picking on Suwinski.

And not to look too far down the road or count chickens before they hatch, but if Davis can provide Suwinski-level power and flirt with 30 home runs in a season, well, he'll be in very rare air as far as right-handed Pirates go:

Having one eye towards the future is a big reason why Davis' promotion is so exciting. Can he help the 2023 Pirates? Sure, and even if he can't right out of the gate, promoting him now is the right decision because the major-league team needs help now and he's risen to the challenge in the minors.

"I'm excited," Shelton said Sunday. "He deserves to be here. He's shown that."

But Davis is, more importantly, one of the faces of the Pirates' future. It's not all about 2023 with him. Players like him, Endy Rodriguez, Quinn Priester and more should make their debuts this year and factor into the team's long-term plans.

But even when strictly looking short-term, the Pirates are getting someone who could, if not should, be one of their best hitters day one.