A 36-goal season is hard to complain about. It's even more difficult when it came at the price of a $6 million cap hit. Yet it felt as though Jake Guentzel wasn't at his best in 2022-23.
That, of course, is because of the high bar he set for himself immediately after making the jump to the NHL. You know, scoring twice in his debut, tying a rookie record for points in a postseason, then blossoming into a force next to Sidney Crosby.
Once new, elevated thresholds are crossed, like 2021-22 when he set career highs in points (84) and points per game (1.10), that becomes the new expectation. The sports world is unforgiving in that regard.
Guentzel, who has one year remaining on his contract before becoming an unrestricted free agent next summer, was brought up several times by subscribers in my Live Qs at 5 this week as a potential trade chip for the Penguins to weaponize this offseason.
Forget about it.
Not only is that unlikely to happen, it's unlikely the Penguins would come out ahead if they did.
"The top end of the forward group, I think, is very, very good," Kyle Dubas said at his introductory press conference at the beginning of June. "You look throughout the league, and to have that group that’s there in whatever formation you want to place it on that night, is going to be good."
And then he left no room for interpretation.
"You have Jake Guentzel and Crosby on one (line), you’ve got Malkin centering another. Wherever you want to put the other pieces around, you’re gonna have a good group there."
Now, I don't know about you, but I can't imagine the new president of hockey operations would mention Guentzel in that manner if there was even a microscopic chance he's going anywhere.
Sure, even Wayne Gretzky was traded. There's a price for everything and everyone. But there are three reasons Guentzel is almost certainly staying put, and they're really quite simple:
1. Crosby loves playing with him.
2. Whether via trade or free agency, his production and offensive generation won't be replaced at the same team-friendly cap hit.
3. Dubas would be selling low on him.
The first reason is obvious and needs no explaining.
It's easy to sit there and assert that now's the time to move on because Guentzel's in line for a handsome contract and raise in a year. Get some value back for him now and avoid signing a contract that figures to take him into his mid-30s. But it's a lot harder to pinpoint a legitimate avenue that replaces his offensive value for a similar price.
Mark Stone, fresh off 62 points in 59 games with excellent defensive play, was dealt from the Senators to the Golden Knights in February of 2019 for ... defenseman Erik Brannstrom, forward Oscar Lindberg and a second-round pick in the 2020 draft that became forward Egor Sokolov.
Brannstrom, the centerpiece of the return, is approaching 200 career NHL games and hasn't posted more than 18 points in a season.
Lindberg played 20 games with the Senators the season he was acquired and hasn't played in the NHL since.
Sokolov profiles as a bottom-sixer if he sticks in the NHL.
Stone just captained the Golden Knights to the Stanley Cup.
But Guentzel is supposed to return the next Tkachuk?
Trade returns -- especially ones that are focused around futures assets -- for high-end players routinely look poor in hindsight. As a kid, wheeling and dealing on franchise mode in EA NHL, I'd constantly ask my father for his input on my trade proposals. Every time, without fail, he'd tell me the team that gets the best player wins the trade.
I've found that to be true far more often than not, and I'm not talking about video games.
Since his first full season (2017-18), Guentzel ranks 16th among all NHL skaters with 181 goals and 10th with 111 full-strength goals. Despite the Penguins' postseason ineptitude that's limited them to just 17 playoff games over the past five years, his 34 playoff goals (58 games) since debuting in the NHL rank sixth. His 24 full-strength playoff goals rank second during that time.
He's quelled the notion that he's a product of Crosby, consistently ranking among the premier drivers of quality offensive chances in various isolated impact models that do, indeed, adjust for the fact he's spending the vast majority of his ice-time next to 87.
Ability like that is not readily available, and it's certainly not going to be replaced by an abundance of lesser talent. Abandoning it when things aren't necessarily Hunky Dory doesn't seem like a sagacious endeavor.
I feel like a broken record for how often I mention this, but if we're being realistic about a competitive window for the Crosby era, next season might just be the last real shot at another run for a Stanley Cup. Regardless of what happens with Guentzel after his contract is up, he will help the Penguins maximize their chances in 2023-24, and that's all that should matter.
