After signing a two-year, $36.71-million contract last summer, expectations rose for Diontae Johnson heading into the Steelers' first season without Ben Roethlisberger since 2003. Whether it was Mitch Trubisky or Kenny Pickett at the helm, Johnson was signed to be the undisputed No. 1 guy and the leader for a young receiving corps.
But, 2022 didn't exactly go Johnson's way. After becoming the fourth receiver in franchise history to record at least 100 catches and 1,000 yards in a season in 2021, Johnson's stats regressed in several categories last season. He only caught 86 passes for 882 yards and, most notably, didn't score a single touchdown.
Regardless of all of the circumstances and variables that played a factor into the drop in production, more is still expected of a receiver that's about to carry a $16.333-million cap hit in 2023 and $15.833-million cap hit in 2024. And, after spending last season talking quite a bit with Johnson, I can tell you with a lot of confidence that he expects more out of himself too.
However, in taking a little bit of a closer look, the 2022 season was hardly an indictment on Johnson. In fact, there are traits that remain consistent with the 2021 version of himself that show he's still very capable of producing in a similar way, and that he still carries the potential to be one of the most dangerous receivers in the NFL.
Outside of dropping seven passes in 2022 (only two more than he did in 2021), the biggest complaint from fans about Johnson in 2022 was him going backwards far too often after the catch. Those complaints are more than valid. Far too often we witnessed Johnson trying to turn a routine play into a home run, costing a struggling offense precious yards in the process.
Those plays were far more relevant in the first half of the season because the team was losing. Every symptom of a bad team stuck out like a sore thumb. But, as the season went on and Johnson was continuously kept out of the end zone, despite the team turning things around in the win column, we still saw plays like this too often:
Johnson still winds up with a positive yards after catch (YAC) on this play, but if he just continues up the field and braces for contact, that gives the Steelers third-and-short, or maybe even a first down, instead of third-and-6.
The great thing about our live files for games here at DK Pittsburgh Sports is we have a great feel for how fans are reacting to the game in the heat of the moment. And, I can't tell you how many times fans would gripe about plays like the one above, along with many, many more.
However, the numbers are quite telling for Johnson's actual production after the catch. And, regardless of what those maddening plays do in the heat of the moment, the numbers never lie.
Going back to his standout 2021 season, Johnson averaged 5.1 yards after the catch per reception (YAC/R), according to NFL's Next Gen Stats. In comparison, Johnson's expected yards after catch average (xYAC/R) was 5.1. In other words, Johnson's actual production aligned perfectly with what he was expected to based on -- as NFL NGS defines it -- how open he was, how fast he was traveling, how many defenders/blockers were in his space, etc.
Last season, Johnson's YAC/R was 2.6 yards while his xYAC/R was 2.7 yards. So, while Johnson did technically fall short of his expected production after the catch, a difference of 0.1 yards isn't nearly as egregious as initially perceived. Really, what should be alarming regarding this stat isn't the difference between his YAC/R and xYAC/R, but the fact that his overall production after the catch was slashed in half from where it was one season prior.
One reason could be that Johnson was one of the NFL's most pressed receivers in 2022. According to NFL NGS, defenders lined up an average of 5.3 yards away from Johnson on all of his targets, which ranks 11th in the NFL. For some context, Justin Jefferson, the NFL's Offensive Player of the Year, had an average cushion of 5.4 yards. Davante Adams' average cushion was 5.6 yards. Tyreek Hill's was 6.4 yards. Defenses press Johnson as if he's one of the league's most dangerous receivers -- and for good reason. Johnson's efficiency as a route runner didn't diminish in 2022, and he still created an average of nearly three yards of separation in his routes:
So, what might be the biggest reason for Johnson's lack of production after the catch? His YAC/R and xYAC/R were nearly identical, as they were in 2021. Johnson broke eight tackles after the catch, as he did in 2021. Even when trying too hard to do too much far too often, Johnson still found a way to perform essentially as expected after the catch.
One reason is certainly adjusting to a rookie quarterback. This isn't a knock on Pickett as a quarterback. He could very well become a great quarterback in this league. He has a lot of the tools needed to do so. But, there is an obvious difference between an 18-year veteran that'll be a first-ballot Hall of Famer and a rookie that's learning and adjusting to the speed of the NFL game.
One of those major differences comes down to timing. With how efficient Johnson is as a route runner, Roethlisberger knew how to take advantage of it by knowing when an actual throwing window opens, even if it doesn't appear so, and how long it stays open. Pickett is at an automatic disadvantage by not knowing the speed of the NFL game. The only way to fix that is with time and experience. Roethlisberger would be able to throw the ball just a split-second earlier than Pickett might feel comfortable throwing it, but Roethlisberger would know, based on established trust in Johnson's ability to get open and how quickly defenses close throwing windows, that his pass would wind up connecting more often than not.
Again, that comes with time. There was always going to be an adjustment period with Pickett under center. It's an inherent part of the game. And, it might explain why Johnson's most productive game last season (Week 15 at Carolina) was with Trubisky at quarterback, not Pickett. Regardless of Trubisky's ability, he knew the speed of the NFL game better than Pickett last year just because of his prior experience.
And, because Pickett had to go through the growing pains of learning the NFL game on the fly, there were also missed opportunities that could have given Johnson more yards and perhaps even a touchdown:
If Pickett glances up to see the safety crashing in on Anthony McFarland in the flat here, he would have known to hit Johnson on the slant and he would have only had the one other safety back to beat to get in the end zone. Even if he didn't score, it was a chunk play that was missed.
Again, plays like this should occur less and less often as Pickett continues to grow and build his rapport with Johnson.
Perhaps the more significant reason for the drop in production after the catch was the types of routes Johnson ran most often. Just take a look at all of these route trees on all of Johnson's targets from six different games in 2022:
NFL Next Gen Stats
NFL NEXT GEN STATS
NFL NEXT GEN STATS
Needless to say, there were far too many routes kept Johnson away from the middle of the field. And that's a shame because Johnson can do the most damage after the catch on slants and drags rather than running curls and outs:
Sure, because Johnson is so good at creating separation, it gives Matt Canada a prime candidate for routes outside the numbers. Because Johnson can create so much separation, he can do much more with limited space than many other receivers in the league.
But, that limits his ability to create yards after the catch. It's really difficult to have a positive YAC/R or xYAC/R when a large chunk of the routes run bring Johnson's momentum back toward the line of scrimmage, like this one against the Ravens:
To reiterate, Johnson knows he has a higher level than he showed in 2022. In having both on- and off-the-record conversations with Johnson last season, I can tell you with the utmost confidence that he cares so much about the team winning, regardless of how he produces. He's also fully embraced the challenge of being a leader, regardless of his comfort level in that role.
But, he knows that the offense stands a better chance of scoring points when he's playing at a higher level. His performance in Carolina last season is a great example of that. With Pickett out due to a concussion, Johnson stepped up and helped the offense convert five first downs by himself. That sustained multiple drives and helped the Steelers control the clock, which was a critical factor in how they finished the second half of the season with a 7-2 record.
Going into 2023, Johnson has lofty goals for himself, knowing that 2022 isn't nearly up to the team's or his own standard. Regardless of variables outside of his control, Johnson expects to produce more this season.
"Definitely All-Pro," Johnson said at the start of OTAs regarding his own expectations for 2023. "Pro Bowl. Over 1,000 yards. Over 100 catches. Top 10, top five. I'm saying that in the most humble way. Really, that is pretty much it. ... I pray over my goals. If I achieve them, I achieve them. If I don't, I just keep working. At the end of the day that is all I can do."
