It seems plausible that Brian Dumoulin, set to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1, has played his final game with the Penguins. Unless next season's plans include experimenting with both of P.O Joseph and Ty Smith down the left side, Kyle Dubas will be in the market for a top-four, left-handed defenseman this offseason.
The crop of left-handed defensemen in this year's free-agent pool isn't stellar. Beyond Dmitry Orlov and Ryan Graves, there aren't any other options that really fit the mold of what the Penguins will likely be looking for. A run at Orlov or Graves is possible, but both players figure to cash in above their on-ice value due to unspectacular alternatives.
Predicting how an offseason will shake out is immensely difficult. Even more so when there are as many questions as the Penguins have on the roster. And then one step further considering there's a brand-new leader of hockey operations. The possibilities are endless, but that's not a reason to avoid diving into some of them.
If Dubas goes the route of acquiring a left-handed defenseman via trade, someone to keep an eye on is Noah Hanifin. The Flames have quite a few important players who will become unrestricted free agents after next season, including Hanifin. He's unwilling to sign an extension with Calgary and is likely to be dealt this offseason, Pierre LeBrun of TSN reports.
Hanifin, 26, could be an enticing target for the Penguins to round out a solid top four that also features Kris Letang, Marcus Pettersson and Jeff Petry (assuming the latter two aren't moved). His $4.95 million cap hit in the final year of his contract is very reasonable, especially when compared to the $6.25 million Damon Severson is going to get for the next eight years, who's an equal, at best, defenseman.
Mind you, Severson is a good player, but he just inked that big contract after playing third-fiddle behind Dougie Hamilton and John Marino on the Devils last season. What does that say about the Penguins' prospects of landing a viable top-four solution on the open market at a price that won't limit their ability to properly address other areas of the roster?
I'll let you connect the dots.
Hanifin's style has the potential to be a great fit in Mike Sullivan's system. The 6-foot-3, 207-pound defenseman is a truly brilliant skater who leverages his talent to frequently join the rush, activate all over the offensive zone, as well as stymie the opposition's transition attack.
Sullivan requires each of his defensemen to keep up the pressure and take calculated risks in order to hold the offensive blue line. The seemingly effortless fluidity and control with which Hanifin skates could help him excel in that aspect with the Penguins, just as it helps him keep opponents at bay in transition defense.
Take a second to appreciate his skating:
That is excellent work to incrementally close the gap on the puck carrier without tangling his feet up and putting himself at risk of getting caught leaning. This is something Dumoulin used to do very well. Once Hanifin had contained the carrier along the wall, they tried shaking him off by pulling up, but he stuck right with them and forced an errant pass that sparked a quick counterattack.
Notice Hanifin didn't waste any time jumping up and supporting the rush immediately upon the change of possession. He does it with regularity, and is also capable of transitioning the puck through the neutral zone all by himself. He can be aggressive in such situations because his long stride and speed allow him to quickly recover and get back on defense, if needed.
That's not to say he doesn't get burned for it on occasion. He most certainly does, but it's part of the reason his isolated impact toward generating quality offense at even-strength over the past three seasons ranks in the 91st percentile of NHL defensemen, per JFresh Hockey. The good that comes from it considerably outweighs the bad. Relative to the average of his team during full-strength action, he was on the ice for a greater rate of expected goals in four of his five seasons with the Flames.
Hanifin has produced 1.15 points per hour at 5-on-5 over the last two seasons, which is higher than any Penguins defenseman currently under contract and good for 27th among all NHL defensemen. He's not a phenomenal power-play quarterback, but he'd be fine on the second unit.
For as frequently as he's willing to rip it, Hanifin's shot isn't a huge weapon from the point. Last season, he scored the majority of his seven goals by dashing into open lanes off the rush before receiving a pass and flicking the puck to the back of the net, or by capitalizing on high-danger passes that found him as the trailer off the rush.
As mentioned, he loves to activate all over the offensive zone and doesn't shy away from getting to prime scoring areas when the opportunity presents itself. An example of what that looks like:
Yeah, Hanifin is going to cost slightly more next season than Dumoulin previously did, but Dumoulin wasn't doing that.
He probably won't ever become a high-end producer due to a lack of a truly lethal shot and not being an overly dynamic passer. He's still going to push the pace offensively, though.
Despite being a strong rush defender, his mobility and aggressiveness can pull him out of position in defensive-zone coverage. It's not enough to absolutely crush his defensive impact, as he ranks in the 63rd percentile at even-strength and the 75th percentile on the penalty-kill since 2020-21. The latter figure checks an important box for any left-handed defense target.
An aspect of Hanifin's game that leaves something to be desired is wall play. He isn't super physical and could do a better job of competing and using his frame to establish optimal positioning when battling for the puck in the corner or behind the net, which you can see in the following clip:
Not a banner day when Phil Kessel gets the best of you in a puck battle.
Hanifin isn't perfect, but he's young, will be cheaper in 2023-24 than most realistic alternatives, and generally provides strong play against quality competition. Oh, and I could watch him skate for hours.
Either workflow, whether Hanifin-Letang and Pettersson-Petry, or Pettersson-Letang and Hanifin-Petry, would be an upgrade over last season. The question then becomes: What will Hanifin cost to acquire, and will the price be worth just one guaranteed season?
Flames fans have deluded themselves into thinking Hanifin could be shipped to Toronto for William Nylander. That ain't happening in their wildest dreams, at least not one-for-one. A sensible return for Hanifin would be a first-round draft pick.
The Penguins currently own pick No. 14 in this year's draft, which I have to assume gets the deal done. The truth is that it would be a resounding success if that pick ever turned into a player as good as Hanifin is right now, but I'd be hesitant to pull the trigger because of the pick's perceived value in a deep draft class.
Because they don't have another pick until the third round, it might make more sense for the Penguins to trade down and obtain a late(r) first-round pick in addition to an early second-round pick, or something along those lines. Then, they could turn around and send the freshly-obtained first-round pick, plus Joseph or Smith, to Calgary for Hanifin.
That would allow the Penguins to upgrade at a position of need without having to overpay a free agent, and they wouldn't have to wait all the way until the third round of the draft to make a selection.
Something else to consider is that this route would figure to close the door on acquiring a top goaltender, like Juuse Saros or Connor Hellebuyck, via trade (unless Dubas is willing to move premium capital in next year's draft, too).
What matters more? Well, that's for Dubas to decide. These are the challenges of trying to maximize a contention window that'll be closed sooner rather than later.
