As part of his closing act as general manager, Ron Hextall shipped away a second-round pick in a deep 2023 NHL Draft in exchange for a player who likely would have passed through waivers at the time of acquisition. With two more seasons remaining at a $5 million cap hit, Mikael Granlund's contract is a major blemish on the Penguins' books.
Getting out from under it figures to be one of Kyle Dubas' top priorities this offseason.
The NHL's buyout window begins today and will run through June 30 at 5 p.m. Eastern. This window poses an excellent opportunity for damage control on a massive mistake from the previous regime.
Just two seasons ago, Granlund posted 64 points in 80 games with the Predators, then 36 points in 58 games prior to the Penguins acquiring him last season. On the surface, those aren't wretched numbers, but a quick look under the hood made it overwhelmingly clear that he was essentially leeching empty-calorie points out of first-line minutes and top power-play usage.
Beyond the unspectacular production relative to his ice-time, a once sneaky-good play driver and positive influence on possession had rapidly devolved into one of the league's biggest anchors in regard to controlling play. The Penguins brought in a one-trick pony, and that trick was the exact opposite of what they really needed.
Granlund's most redeeming skill remains his passing ability, but he is so uninvolved in transition, shoots so infrequently and struggles so much to finish that his overall offensive impact is abysmal at this stage of his career. His skating isn't what it once was, and he's hardly the hard-to-play-against type at 5-foot-10 and 185 pounds. In a best-case scenario, he was never going to be a good fit with the Penguins.
In a shock to no one whose level of hockey analysis goes beyond raw boxscore stats, Granlund struggled to produce with the Penguins (one goal, four assists in 21 games) and didn't push the pace offensively while receiving third-line minutes and second power-play usage. Even the most steadfast optimists quickly soured on his ability to make an actual impact, let alone come anywhere close to living up to his cap hit.
If there's a positive to pull, it's that the Penguins performed really well defensively when he was on the ice at 5-on-5. That's not to say he was a defensive menace -- he had his moments when he blew assignments or didn't apply enough pressure -- but the abominable defensive impacts he'd provided over the previous two seasons in Nashville weren't a glaring issue. However, assuming that will continue would be a gamble.
The Penguins aren't in a spot to be gambling on such a limited ceiling. They certainly aren't in a spot to be shelling out $5 million for someone who might give them decent defensive play and very little else. They must move on in some capacity.
Initally, I was open to the idea of trying to get another team to take Granlund at a discounted rate via trade if the Penguins attached a draft pick along with him. After a closer look at the Penguins' current draft capital, that doesn't seem wise.
It would probably take at least a second-round pick to get such a deal done, and the Penguins don't even have one in the upcoming draft because they spent it to bring Granlund in. Their first-round pick (No. 14) has far too much perceived value to be blown on shedding salary. Looking toward next year's draft, the Penguins have a pick in each of the first four rounds, but they'll likely either be weaponizing some of them to make a splash acquisition or simply hoarding the selections to finally start replenishing the system during the twilight years of Sidney Crosby and co.
There's no need to spend additional futures assets to get rid of Granlund, especially if they'd have to retain part of his salary. Buying him out would provide significant and immediate cap relief with rather insignificant penalties beyond next season. Here's a breakdown of what the Penguins would be on the hook for:
2023-24: $833,333
2024-25: $1,833,333
2025-26: $1,833,333
2026-27: $1,833,333
That's over $4 million in cap savings -- right now -- that could go toward any of a No. 1 goaltender, third-line center, middle-six left winger or a top-four left-handed defenseman. We're talking about a real chunk of change here. Enough to make a difference, if spent appropriately. Suddenly, the Penguins' current available cap space figure would jump from $20.2 million to over $24.3 million.
Dubas said he's not going to bet against Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang. The goal is to try and win another Stanley Cup with them, but if we're being realistic about a competitive window, it's pretty much the season right in front of them. No, I'm not betting against them, either, but peering past next season, they will be 37, 38 and 38, respectively, by the time the 2025 postseason rolls around.
The Core is still at the high end of the spectrum for now. Father Time will, indeed, come for them eventually.
And that's exactly why Granlund's dead-weight cap hit jumping up by $1 million for the 2024-25 season shouldn't matter. The salary cap inevitably rising will make it negligible, anyway.
What matters is that there's a legitimate chance to pivot from a disappointing season and give a legendary trio one more shot at a Stanley Cup. Strike while the iron is hot and take those cap savings.
