ALTOONA, Pa. -- There are two ways to look at things when it comes to trying to reach a goal.
Do you ...
Hope to reach the goal?
Or ...
Expect to reach the goal?
In the discussion of earning a College Football Playoff berth, Penn State is still very much in the hope group. The expect group has a small and elite membership consisting of Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State, with Clemson having been a recent member of the collection.
The Nittany Lions have a tremendous two-year window of opportunity coming up, which everyone knows. As we move closer and closer to the 2023 season, there will be less and less talk about the two-year window, and more and more talk about just how wide the window will be open this year.
How realistic is a playoff berth for the Lions in 2023?
Yes, it absolutely could happen. Anybody who says otherwise would be foolish, since Penn State is expected to be a preseason top 10 team and features loads of talent on both sides of the ball.
James Franklin was asked about the playoff possibility this week in a one-on-one interview with Allie Berube of ABC 27 News in Harrisburg. Berube had this nicely worded question: "Penn State will make the College Football Playoff in 2023, if…" which gave Franklin a chance to come up with a really simple answer.
But of course, none of this is simple, as Franklin immediately acknowledged.
"I don’t know if it’s that simple of just a fill in the blank," he said. "But I think if ultimately we can find a way to maximize our opportunities, and that’s as individual players, that’s on offense, defense and special teams, that is from a depth perspective. ... So there’s a lot of things that that kind of factor into that. But as you know, my answer is going to be we need to start with West Virginia."
Fair enough answer. Berube then came back with this good follow-up question for the coach: "Is it a realistic expectation to put you guys at that level wanting to compete at that level?"
And yes, it absolutely is reasonable for any Penn State player, coach or fan to have that as a realistic expectation, coming off an 11-2 season and Rose Bowl victory.
"Yeah, I think we’ve been a part of those conversations really for probably the better part of the last seven years," Franklin said. "We’ve been right on the cusp. So, I think when you’re able to become a part of those conversations on a consistent basis, then you’re going to have a year where the stars align and things go well."
Will that be this year?
Mathematically, the odds say no. This is from newly released betting odds on Penn State to make the College Football Playoff:
Yes: +400
No: -600
In a press release with the odds, it noted, "The odds suggest an 85.7% chance of not making the playoffs."
That means Penn State has a 14.3 percent chance to make it.
And, as the famous saying goes ...
Actually, looking at it from one perspective, it seems like having only a 14.3 percent to make the playoff is a little low. Again, we're talking about a team that could be ranked as high as No. 5 in the preseason (although No. 7 is more likely).
Aha, but Penn State plays in the Big Ten East. With Ohio State and Michigan. So, the odds will take a beating when factoring in having to play those two opponents and how it could impact the Lions making the four-team field.
Ohio State has a 56.5 percent chance of making the playoff this year, the second-highest odds behind only Georgia.
Michigan has a 39.2 percent chance to make it, which is the third-highest odds.
Regardless, when we're looking at Penn State and its odds of reaching the final four, it clearly works against the Lions that they, in fact, have never made the field. Yes, Penn State would have made a 12-team field in five of the past seven years had it been at that number. But alas, it wasn't.
There's only one more year of the playoff field being at four -- which is a blessing for Penn State -- but since the Lions haven't made it yet, realistically it's not very likely that they'll make it this year, either.
What are some other teams' odds to make the playoff? Here are some notables:
Georgia: 70.6 percent
Alabama: 35.7 percent
Florida State: 20 percent
Clemson: 17.7 percent
Texas: 14.3 percent
LSU: 14.3 percent
Notre Dame: 10 percent
