The Penguins wouldn't have won back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2016 and 2017 without Brian Dumoulin. He served as the perfect complement next to Kris Letang for years while exemplifying high-end defensive play. Unfortunately, several significant lower-body injuries since then have hampered his effectiveness. Now a pending unrestricted free agent, the Penguins' new general manager would be wise to turn the page on his chapter with the team.
Nobody on the Penguins played more than Dumoulin during full-strength action this past season. They were minus-18 in goals during that time. His game stabilized in the latter stages of the year, but he was still a liability in his own end (both at evens and on the penalty-kill) far too often.
Both Marcus Pettersson and P.O Joseph remain under contract next season to fill out the left side of the second and third pairing. Even if Pettersson is bumped up to play with Letang, Dumoulin is not a good fit next to Jeff Petry. And really, second-pairing duties wouldn't be optimal for Dumoulin at this point, anyway. Let's just say they trade Joseph or use him as a No. 7 to let Dumoulin play third-pairing minutes -- his partner in such a scenario would be Jan Rutta. That's not going to fly.
The Penguins' top priority over the offseason should be stabilizing the No. 1 goalie position, and not far behind is the need for a reliable top-four, left-handed defenseman. Someone who brings a similar impact to the Dumoulin of old would be ideal. I'd be inclined to try and land this player via trade, but there's a possibility that there won't be enough assets remaining to pull it off after trading for a top goaltender, if that's the route they opt to take.
They might not be left with any choice but to fill the void by grabbing someone in free agency. In such a scenario, Vladislav Gavrikov is one of just several left-handed defensemen who might be worth a look from a rather weak class of free agents.
Gavrikov, 27, was traded to the Kings back in March after spending the first three-plus seasons of his career with the Blue Jackets. He brings some bulk at 6-foot-3, 221 pounds and is known for his defensive work above all else.
That's not to suggest he's among the league's elite shutdown blue-liners, but he tends to take care of business in his own end, even if it's against top competition. Over the past three seasons, his isolated impact toward his team's ability to limit quality chances against ranks in the 76th percentile, which peaked at the 82nd percentile this past season, per JFresh Hockey. Pettersson is the only defenseman to dress for the Penguins in 2022-23 with a better three-year defensive impact (89th percentile).
The Penguins were the NHL's fifth-best team in expected goals against per hour (2.29) at 5-on-5 in 2021-22. They fell all the way to 21st (2.76) this past season. They'd likely benefit from Gavrikov's contributions in that regard. The same goes for the penalty-kill, as they ranked 12th and 18th, respectively, by the same measure over the past two seasons. Gavrikov and his 91st percentile penalty-kill impact should provide another boost there.
He achieves those defensive impacts a number of ways. The first thing that stands out is that he's a decent skater for his size. This allows him to stay active in the defensive zone and remain with his assignment instead of being relegated to statue duties around the net. He doesn't have much speed or agility, though it seems to me that he sacrifices both items for more fluidity, which is totally fine because that tends to help minimize those 'oh, sh--' moments.
From the time he was acquired at the trade deadline, Gavrikov finished first among Kings defensemen with a 70% share of on-ice goals at full-strength and second with a 58.9% share of on-ice expected goals, per Evolving-Hockey. He then paced all Kings defensemen in both categories during six postseason games despite getting a healthy dosage of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
Gavrikov has a strong grasp on how to gain leverage from inside positioning during net-front battles and along the boards. Once gaining that leverage, he does a very good job of tying up opponents through their midsection. On the downside of his lack of speed and quickness is that he's sometimes a step late to 50/50 pucks in the corner or behind the net after having to disengage from tie-ups around the crease. Even so, he's still able to use his long reach to trap the puck and the opposition along the wall until a teammate swoops in for the retrieval.
I'm not privy to Gavrikov's micro-statistics that show his effectiveness at denying zone entries off the rush, but from what I remember during his days with the Blue Jackets and what I saw during the scouting I did for this piece, he does an excellent job of reading and reacting off the play as it develops while maintaining a good gap.
An example from the postseason:
Gavrikov was the first Kings skater to anticipate the Oilers coming up with possession along the wall. With the weak-side winger building speed through the middle as that happened, he wisely retreated and prepared for the ensuing rush. The puck did end up making its way to the streaker through the middle and Gavrikov did well to track him through the neutral zone and shrink the gap.
The rush was quickly reaching a point where Gavrikov would either be able to make a play on the carrier at the blue line, or force them wide into his defense partner. The Oilers countered it well with an overlap that instantly put Gavrikov in a much looser gap than he'd prefer. It didn't matter. Rather than crossing his feet over and putting himself at risk of getting caught leaning, he utilized C-cuts to adjust while angling himself in a manner that assured he was in a good spot to react to whatever unfolded.
After shrinking the gap again, he found his spot to step up. The carrier was left with the option to try and thread something through the heart of the Kings' coverage, but instead made a desperation play to get the puck deep with Gavrikov bearing down on them. Although the Kings conceded the zone and allowed the puck to get deep, it was a solid defensive sequence that prevented anything dangerous from transpiring off the rush.
Don't let this fool you into believing he's not physical, but Gavrikov doesn't throw a ton of hits. He can really lay the boom when he does, though:
Gavrikov is not someone who pushes the pace offensively in the traditional sense. He plays a pretty simple game with the puck on his stick and will take the safer route more often than not. Although that's mostly a good thing, his hands are a limitation and will prevent him from ever being a consistent point producer. There are times when he relinquishes possession at the first sight of forechecking pressure, resulting in area or bank passes that create 50/50 pucks.
Craftier defensemen are able to hang onto pucks and make plays themselves in those situations, but I think Gavrikov knows what he is not and does a nice job of playing within himself and his limitations:
With the puck rimming up the wall, Gavrikov cared about nothing more than making sure he didn't allow it to get by him. Those pucks can be trouble, especially with pressure on the way. He succeeded and made a nice one-touch pass to his defense partner. As the play worked to the opposite side of the ice, he saw his chance to activate on the rush and was soon hit with a pass at center-ice.
From there, he didn't quite know what to do with the puck in a one-on-one situation at the offensive blue line and basically skated right into the defender. He did, however, manage to gain the zone and then buy some time for his forwards to get in on the forecheck. That'll suffice along with his defensive work.
Gavrikov is projected to receive a four-year contract with an annual cap hit of $4.56 million if he signs with a team other than the Kings, per Evolving-Hockey's projections. I wouldn't prioritize him at that figure, but the Penguins' top four on the blue line would be pretty strong with him in the mix. His style and best attributes would complement the group, even if he's not a giant needle-mover all by himself.
Leading up to the start of free agency, I will be profiling select pending unrestricted free agents and taking a look at whether or not they might be a strong fit with the Penguins. Drop a comment and tell me who you'd like to see profiled next.
PREVIOUS UFA PROFILES
• Pierre Engvall (Forward)
• Tyler Bertuzzi (Forward)
