Maybe it will be Kyle Dubas, after all? Mathieu Darche? Eric Tulsky? Whoever is named the Penguins' new general manager (which could happen as soon as this week) will have their work cut out for them right away.
In most cases, the Penguins' current situation would warrant a period of transition in which they'd take an immediate step back in favor of the future. The continued brilliance of a top-five player of all time and another generational talent has -- rightfully -- forced the team to remain in win-now mode.
As I've been saying for quite some time now, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang don't make up the NHL's best trio anymore, but their level of play remains strong enough that the Penguins could still make some noise in the Eastern Conference with a strong team supporting them.
Contrary to the too old, too slow, tear it down doom and gloom, there is a path to getting the Penguins back in the conversation for the season that's right in front of them if the offseason is navigated carefully by the one who will soon be calling the shots.
Here are five challenges the new general manager will immediately face:
1. SOLIDIFYING THE NO. 1 GOALIE POSITION
Nothing will be more important for the Penguins this offseason than figuring out what they're going to do between the pipes, and that starts with making a decision on Tristan Jarry, who is a pending unrestricted free agent. His career inconsistencies make giving him another contract really risky, but such is life when dealing with goaltending.
The Penguins need more stability in goal than they've received for quite a while now. Jarry imploded in his first true opportunity to shine when it mattered most during the 2021 postseason, allowing a staggering 21 goals in just six games against the Islanders. The following postseason, he appeared in only one game due to a broken foot. His injuries this past season limited him to 47 starts in which he performed hardly any better than a league-average goalie would be expected to perform based on the exact same workload.
That wouldn't be so concerning if Jarry had a proven track record, but the 2021-22 regular season stands as the only extended stretch in which he truly separated himself from the pack. The rest of his time in the NHL has been rather pedestrian. It's possible that Jarry has put himself in a spot for a short-term prove-it deal at a relatively low cap hit, but Evolving-Hockey's contract projections have him slated for a considerable raise above the $3.5 million per season he previously counted against the cap. The projections range from a $5.5 million cap hit on a one-year deal, all the way up to $6.865 million on a six-year contract.
I wouldn't be buying at those prices. The problem, though, is that Jarry might be the best goalie set to become an unrestricted free agent. Each of Martin Jones, Joonas Korpisalo and Jonathan Quick would be a downgrade. Frederik Andersen would likely be a lateral move, at best. Even someone like Adin Hill, who's flashing some potential with the Golden Knights in their postseason run, has never started more than 25 games in a regular season.
If Jarry's not going to return, it makes a lot of sense to acquire the new No. 1 via trade. The Predators might be willing to move Juuse Saros as they don't figure to be competitive the next several seasons, by which point top prospect Yaroslav Askarov could be ready to take over in goal. Connor Hellebuyck could be on his way out of Winnipeg prior to the start of the final season of his contract.
Making a splash trade for a top goaltender right after taking control of the Penguins won't be easy to maneuver, but the soon-to-be general manager might not have much of a choice if they intend to go all out for the season that's right in front of them.
2. GETTING OUT FROM UNDER MIKAEL GRANLUND'S CONTRACT
The Penguins have roughly $20.2 million in cap space heading into the offseason, per CapFriendly. That's quite the chunk of change on the surface, but with so many gaps to fill, it could run out in a hurry. The quickest and easiest way to create even more cap space would be to get out from under Mikael Granlund's $5 million cap hit for the next two seasons.
Sure, it might be tempting to hope Granlund bounces back from a wildly unproductive 21-game sample after Ron Hextall blew away a second-round pick to bring him in. Penguins fans should hope the new general manager doesn't succumb to the sunk-cost fallacy. Even if Granlund manages to turn things around, his archetype is the antithesis of what the Penguins need.
Part of me figured the Penguins should try and entice another team to take on Granlund by sending them an insignificant draft pick, but with the premium draft capital likely heading out in the event of a trade for a top goalie, it makes more sense to just bite the bullet and buy him out.
Here's the annual cap penalty for doing so:
2023-24: $833,333
2024-25: $1,833,333
2025-26: $1,833,333
2026-27: $1,833,333
Taking on dead money for two seasons beyond the end of Granlund's current contract isn't ideal. Will it really matter by that point? I certainly don't think so. Freeing up over $4 million in cap space for next season could be massive if it's spent appropriately. This seems like a small price to pay to cover up a glaring Hextall mistake.
3. IDENTIFYING A THIRD-LINE CENTER
Even if Granlund starts next season with the Penguins, Mike Sullivan's usage of him in the final weeks of this past season suggests he won't be slotting in up the middle. So, who does that leave to play third-line center? It definitely won't be Jeff Carter. Drew O'Connor is an option, but Sullivan prefers him on the wing. That leaves Ryan Poehling and ... yeah, you get the idea.
Poehling was deployed as the third-line center during the stretch run, though he'd ideally center the fourth line until proving he can be counted on to stay in the lineup and bring a bit more offense on a consistent basis.
The burden put upon the Penguins' top players to carry the load can't remain so significant. Someone who produces at a relatively strong clip would be nice as a third-line center. Someone who positively impacts possession and quality chances at both ends of the ice would be even better. For varying reasons, a few pending unrestricted free-agent centers who might be a good fit include Jordan Staal, J.T. Compher, Max Domi, Erik Haula and Evan Rodrigues.
The upcoming free-agent class is rather weak, so it wouldn't surprise me if each of those players end up getting overpaid to a point that it wouldn't make sense for the Penguins to be in on them. As so, a third-line center would need to be found via trade. However, if a trade for a top goalie is in the cards, there aren't going to be many futures assets remaining to make another splash.
4. IDENTIFYING A TOP-FOUR, LEFT-HANDED DEFENSEMAN
I suspect Brian Dumoulin's days as a Penguin are nearly over. I also suspect that a trio of Marcus Pettersson, P.O Joseph and Ty Smith down the left side of the defense isn't going to see the light of day, which I outlined in last week's Drive to the Net.
Pettersson has blossomed into a legitimate top-four defender capable of playing on the first or second pairing. Beyond him, Joseph and Smith have plenty of question marks, including their work in the defensive zone. Thrusting either of Joseph or Smith into a second-pairing role doesn't seem wise, and one might even be involved in a potential trade, so there's a real need for a lefty on the blue line who doesn't need to be sheltered in any capacity -- one kind of like Dumoulin before several lower-body injuries severely hampered his effectiveness.
Just like the group of centers set to hit the market this summer, the group of quality left-handed defensemen about to become free agents is extremely limited. The group is headlined by Dmitry Orlov, then takes a step back with Ryan Graves, Shayne Gostisbehere, Ian Cole and Vladislav Gavrikov.
Orlov is a slam-dunk candidate to get a ridiculous contract, though he'd be a phenomenal fit with the Penguins. I like Graves and think he'd be a decent fit, too, but he's a player who has benefitted from quite a bit of percentage luck beyond his control over the course of his career and seems like another candidate for a steep overpay. Gostisbehere isn't a stylistic fit. Cole isn't coming back while Sullivan's running the bench. Gavrikov might just be the target here.
Either way, a No. 1 goalie and third-line center are more pressing needs. If those positions are addressed first, there might not be much cap space left over to make a competitive offer to Gavrikov or acquire someone else via trade.
5. MAKING THE CALL ON JASON ZUCKER
It's true that replacing Jason Zucker's character and infectious energy will be nearly impossible. Still, it can't be ignored that he's on the wrong side of 30 and had a phenomenal season in a contract year after multiple injury-riddled and somewhat unproductive seasons. Making the call on his future with the team isn't going to be an easy one.
Zucker led the Penguins in 5-on-5 goals this past season with 24, which was good for 14th in the entire league. He also had one of the league's highest isolated impacts toward his team's ability to generate quality offense. No free agents, except for Tyler Bertuzzi, maybe, are going to perform at that level on the left wing of the second line.
The new general manager should entertain bringing him back with strict parameters on the term and cap hit of his contract. Something in the range of three years at $4.75 million per season might be able to get the job done and make both parties happy. Exceeding either of those figures would carry considerable risk, but so would letting him walk without a viable replacement.
