The order for this summer's NHL Entry Draft is officially set. While the Blackhawks landed the first-overall pick that they'll eventually use to select generational talent Connor Bedard, the Penguins have pick No. 14.
Whoever is named general manager of the Penguins between now and the draft would be wise to trade that pick away.
If they are to hang onto the pick, it would be the highest the Penguins have made a selection since 2012, the year they drafted defenseman Derrick Pouliot with pick No. 8 ... you know, the guy who lasted broken parts of only three seasons in Pittsburgh and has played a whopping 19 NHL games over the past two seasons.
It would be just the fourth time they've made a first-round selection since Pouliot's draft year. The players they've selected with those picks have been traded away, re-acquired, then waived (Kasperi Kapanen, No. 22 in 2014) or simply haven't made an impact on the NHL club as of yet (Sam Poulin, No. 21 in 2019 and Owen Pickering, No. 21 in 2022).
The Penguins' NHL roster is depleted of impactful youth. The farm ranks are lacking talent. In a big way. Ordinarily, it would be the easiest decision in the world to keep pick No. 14 and potentially add the best prospect the organization has seen since ... Kapanen? Jake Guentzel?
But the Penguins' situation is anything but ordinary. Treating it as such would likely reflect as an early misstep of the soon-to-be general manager.
Ron Hextall tried to toe the line of keeping them in win-now mode while also trying to replenish the prospect pool. He failed. His mistake of being halfway in and halfway out the door mustn't be repeated. All the way in or all the way out.
Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin just stayed completely healthy for the duration of the same season for the first time ever. They were really productive, too, but it didn't matter as the Penguins missed the playoffs for the first time since Crosby's rookie season. I've come to learn that betting against them is foolish, but don't get it twisted: The Penguins are never going to receive a combined effort like that from the duo in the same season ever again.
Coming to terms with that isn't betting against them. Not even close. It's common sense. Both players have dealt with a considerable number of injuries throughout their careers. They also have a ton of miles on their legs. I won't predict some sort of season-derailing injury for either of them next season, but the likelihood of both remaining completely healthy for a second season in a row seems about as likely as the Squirrel Hill Tunnel not being backed up at all hours of the day.
However, let's just say both of them play 70-plus games next season. Are they expected to maintain the same level that had both of them in the 97th percentile in regard to driving quality offense among NHL forwards like they were this past season? Again, I've learned not to bet against them, but expecting dominance to that degree during their age-36 and age-37 seasons would be unnecessarily putting the weight of the world on their shoulders.
So, the Penguins not only need to improve upon the depth that wasn't good enough to help them reach the postseason, but they'll almost positively need to make up for a slight -- but potentially significant -- reduction in impact and availability from Crosby and Malkin.
That won't be solely accounted for by signing any of the top free agents from this year's crop, nor will it by hanging onto pick No. 14 and selecting a player who undoubtedly won't make a difference within the Penguins' competitive window.
Don't believe me? Here's a look at the No. 14 pick every year dating back to 2005:
DANNY SHIREY / DKPS
If history is any indication, the Penguins would be in a good spot to select a player who will probably carve out an NHL career for themself. Of the 18 players selected at No. 14 since 2005, 10 of them have played at least 200 NHL games. All but three of them played in the NHL at some point, and two of those three are still developing as prospects.
The problem is that this draft slot has provided very little when it comes to star power. Aside from Charlie McAvoy, who is one of the game's best defensemen, there isn't a single player on this list who I'd say even sniffed becoming a star player at any point.
I mean, sure, Joel Farabee and Jake DeBrusk are currently solid wingers.
Each of Alex Wennberg, Zemgus Girgensons and Jaden Schwartz have played over 600 career games and still provide a reasonable impact relative to their roles.
Kevin Shattenkirk was a strong offensive defenseman for a number of years.
But would any of them -- at their absolute peak -- make a significant difference on next season's Penguins team? McAvoy would. I'm not certain that'd be the case for any of the others.
The way I see it, there are only two reasons to hang onto pick No. 14, both of which I vehemently disagree with:
1. They're certain they'll be able to land the next McAvoy.
2. They value possessing a future middle-six forward/middle-pairing defenseman over maximizing the current competitive window.
Look, I get it, the window looks like it's slammed shut. Might as well start the rebuild, right? Wrong. As I just displayed, pick No. 14 isn't going to accelerate or jumpstart any kind of rebuild. All of Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell -- just a summer ago, mind you -- were locked up to term that exceeded their expiration dates as effective players because it helps the team right now.
I also understand fans' frustrations when it comes to having nothing of note in the prospect pool. But winning comes at a cost, baby. And I'm not ignorant to the fact that the Penguins haven't exactly done a whole lot of winning when it's mattered most over the past five years, but that doesn't mean they should stop trying.
The Penguins should be operating on a "this season only" mindset from here on out. The future already looks bleak. Nothing that can be done at this point will change that. Certainly not hanging onto this pick. With rather glaring needs in goal, at third-line center and on the left side of the defense, they can't afford not to weaponize it in a trade that actually pushes them closer to contention while it still matters. As in, literally right now.
One more possibility of a run with Crosby, Malkin and Letang vastly outweighs the idea of merely remaining competitive once they're gone. Don't twist yourself into knots trying to argue otherwise. If they had a lottery selection, this would be a different story, but pick No. 14 won't be riding in to save the day.
