Numerous key figures suggest Lions' program in strongest shape in decades

UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. -- When was the last time you've felt this good about Penn State football? The last time the program had everything going right at the same time, with the expectation that it would continue for several years?

The period from 1993-99 certainly comes to mind, highlighted by the undefeated 1994 team and the 1999 team that was ranked No. 2 in the country before a late three-game losing streak.

Prior to that, Penn State was an elite national power in the early to mid-80s, winning two national titles and proving it could go toe to toe with anybody.

All of this is still in the wishful thinking stage right now that the next few years could produce those types of sustained runs. But, there is statistical evidence -- plenty of it, in fact -- to be believe it could happen.

In short, these three areas are going spectacularly well for Penn State:

1. Recruiting (the influx of talent)

2. Player development (the here and now)

3. NFL Draft material (the outflux of talent)

Dare we use the infamous "E" word, but Penn State currently is right on the cusp of being elite in all three areas. Any program that is elite in those three areas certainly has a good chance to accomplish special things, and as we learned during spring ball, there are high hopes that the team could be on the verge of doing just that.

"Overall, I thought we had a great spring," James Franklin said after the Blue-White Game.

"The coaches and the players, we have to be very intentional about what we do between now and West Virginia," the coach later noted. "They need to have a personal plan. What do I need to get better at? What do I do well? What do I need to work on to be a more complete player? ... We’ll go through the cutups from spring ball, we’ll start to come up with what our identity is going to be now on offense, defense and special teams based off of what we did well this spring."

Let's examine where Penn State has been and where it's going, using some notable numbers.

3: How many players on this year's team are projected to be first-round NFL draft picks in 2024: OT Olu Fashanu, CB Kalen King, DE Chop Robinson. Only twice has the program ever had at least three first-round picks in the same year (1995 -- Ki-Jana Carter, Kerry Collins, Kyle Brady; 2003 -- a record four first-rounders Jimmy Kennedy, Michael Haynes, Bryant Johnson, Larry Johnson).

3: The number of second-round draft picks Penn State had this year: Joey Porter Jr., Brenton Strange, Juice Scruggs. Porter was essentially a first-round pick who slid a tad, but still, three guys taken in the first 62 picks is impressive.

4: Starters back on the offensive line this fall: LT Fashanu, LG Landon Tengwall, RG Sal Wormley, RT Caedan Wallace. Scruggs (center) is the lone starter not returning. However, this number really could be five, since Hunter Nourzad started eight games last year between left guard and center and is expected to be the starting center this year. This line should be outstanding, led by Fashanu, who projects as a top five draft pick.

5: Sean Clifford was drafted in the fifth round by the Packers. WOW!!!!! That will never not be a gigantic surprise. But hey, Penn State has shown it can get quarterbacks to the NFL over the past decade -- or at least get some drafted -- with Matt McGloin, Christian Hackenberg, Trace McSorley and the departed Tommy Stevens and Will Levis. Surely Drew Allar will be next. While not exactly QBU, the fact that Penn State has shown it can get guys to the pros should only help convince future star QB prospects to come.

6: Total NFL Draft picks this year, with S Ji'Ayir Brown and WR Parker Washington rounding things out. That's three years in a row that at least six players have been drafted from Penn State, a streak that hadn't happened since 1991-93.

6: Penn State's ranking for the recruiting class of 2024. The Lions also ranked No. 6 in 2022 and No. 13 in 2023. Franklin and his staff have been crushing it in recruiting, and when you couple that with being able to develop players very well physically during their careers, then it's no surprise Penn State has been able to produce so many draft picks. And when you produce a lot of draft picks, it makes even more high school standouts want to come to the program, because the primary goal for every one of them is to get to the NFL.

7: Final AP ranking in 2022.

7: Projected preseason ranking in 2023. The Lions probably could be as high as No. 5 in some preseason polls.

10: Projected win total this year. Anything less than 10 would be a disappointment.

11: Wins last year, including the Rose Bowl.

12: Not the biggest number on this list, but perhaps the most important. The College Football Playoff expands to 12 in 2024, giving Penn State an easier path to a playoff than it has ever had in program history. That is HUGE! When we talk here about the program being in its best situation in decades, a big part of that consideration is the direct path to a playoff and potential national title. Franklin's teams finished in the top 12 four straight years from 2016-19, but there was only a four-team playoff. Back in 1994, if there had been a 12-team playoff, Penn State probably would have won the title (although Nebraska fans would still argue that). Point is, having a clear, distinct and actually relatively easy path to a playoff puts the Lions in a stronger position to achieve their ultimate goal than the program has had, really ever. As I've pointed out numerous times, Penn State can get to a playoff without ever having to beat Ohio State ever again, and probably even without beating Ohio State or Michigan. That is INSANE!

15: He's the key to all of this. For the next two years, anyway. If Allar lives up to the hype, Penn State could contend for a national title, most likely in 2024. All the pieces are there, but a star QB will be needed to carry the load.

37: It's been this many years since Penn State last won a national title.

??: How many more years until the Lions win another national title? Post your answer in the comments.

40: This is a reference to 40-yard dash times, which I'm using as a catch-all for the incredible physical development players go through during their Penn State careers. Clifford even ran a 4.57 40 time, the same as McSorley, for crying out loud. Bottom line, Penn State's strength and conditioning program is outstanding and produces workout warriors, which is a big reason why so many players get drafted.

70: Million dollars in the first phase of Beaver Stadium renovations, which are coming up. This figure was approved Thursday (more on that below).

700: Million dollars for the total Beaver Stadium renovation project. With this kind of financial commitment to the stadium, the Penn State program will continue to have a gigantic home-field advantage for game days, as well as a facility that will wow recruits. When the project is all finished, the old erector set of a stadium should be a thing of beauty.

STADIUM RENOVATION TIMELINE

At last, we have an idea of when Penn State plans to start and finish the Beaver Stadium renovation. The university released the following Thursday:

From Penn State's release on the stadium renovation:

"The total project, to be completed in four years, is estimated to cost about $700 million and will be financed and paid for entirely by Penn State Intercollegiate Athletics. No tuition dollars or educational budget funds will be used toward the renovations.

"The preliminary plan for the full project involves a complete reconstruction of the west side of the stadium, which will maintain traditional bowl-style seating while adding anticipated club and loge seats and executive and founder's suites. Additional anticipated renovations throughout the facility include ongoing code upgrades, accessibility improvements and upgraded fan amenities. These involve improved circulation to ease spectator congestion throughout the stadium, improved restrooms, upgraded concessions, Wi-Fi and cellular upgrades, and additional seating options."

It will be very, very interesting to see what happens with the stadium for the 2025 and 2026 seasons with regards to seating capacity and how the university will handle having part of the stadium closed off for two seasons. AD Pat Kraft indicated Thursday that there would be a "minimal" loss of seating for the 2026 season.

"After years of studies and careful analysis, I'm happy that these much-needed renovations to Beaver Stadium are about to get underway," Penn State President Neeli Bendapudi said in the university release. "I am committed to continuing to grow our Intercollegiate Athletics program and to keeping Penn State competitive on the national stage. We have one of only a handful of self-sustaining intercollegiate athletics departments in the country, which means that this project can move forward, distinctly, without using the University's overall budget, tuition dollars, student fees or the critical resources available in support of our educational and research missions."

Where will the money come from for the renovations? Here are some excerpts from Penn State's release on the financial aspects:

• "There are several funding avenues for this transformational project. The additional revenue generated throughout the renovated stadium will not only offset the costs but also enhance our overall athletics budget in the future," said Vice President of Intercollegiate Athletics Patrick Kraft. "In addition to stadium-generated revenue, we will embark on a major philanthropic campaign with a goal of raising more than $200 million to support the stadium renovation and other athletic department priorities. Further, we expect to see significant revenue in sponsorships and third-party contracts, all of which enables Penn State Athletics to remain self-sustaining."

• The initial $70 million expenditure will be funded through a bond sale planned for June. The bonds will be repaid entirely by Intercollegiate Athletics, and the entire project will be paid for through fundraising, concessions, naming opportunities, sponsorships and ticket sales, including new premium seating options to be added during the renovation.  

• "As a self-sustaining department — meaning its generated revenues are equal to or more than its operational costs — Intercollegiate Athletics is fiscally sound and will generate the revenue to pay for this project and more," said Sara Thorndike, Penn State senior vice president for Finance and Business. "When the renovation is complete, the return on investment will be significant, bringing in additional financial resources to Intercollegiate Athletics." 

TRANSFER PORTAL PICKUP

Franklin noted after the Blue-White Game that Penn State needed "some more depth and more competition at D-tackle." Well, the Lions got some help Wednesday through the transfer portal.

Alonzo Ford is a 6-foot-3, 272-pounder who played two seasons at Old Dominion and has two years of eligibility remaining.

Ford had 32 tackles, 3 1/2 sacks and five tackles for loss last season at ODU, which is coached by former Penn State offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne. In 2021, Ford had 42 tackles and 3 1/2 tackles for loss.

Ford was a 3-star recruit out of Richmond, Va., in 2020. He was rated the No. 51 prospect in Virginia.

OPENING LINES

For as good as Penn State could be this year, the Lions still aren't expected to beat Ohio State or Michigan, according to Vegas. And the game against the Buckeyes isn't even expected to be very close.

According to early lines from BetOnline.ag, Ohio State is favored by 10 1/2 points over Penn State for the game in Columbus on Oct. 21.

Michigan visits Beaver Stadium on Nov. 11, and the Wolverines are favored by 2 1/2 points in that one.

The only other line available is Penn State's visit to Michigan State on Nov. 25. The Lions are favored by 10 1/2.

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