The Penguins have a big decision to make this summer.
Should Tristan Jarry be re-signed, or do they let him walk in free agency and look to upgrade the No. 1 goaltender job elsewhere?
Of course, they have an even bigger decision to make first -- with no general manager, they need to decide who will be making that decision on Jarry's future. Ideally, the Penguins will hire a new head of hockey operations sooner rather than later, so he or she can get to work on contract negotiations or possible upgrades through trades.
Danny Shirey covered the Jarry question well in his primer on the Penguins' pending free agents: Jarry, who turns 28 years old this week, is still relatively unproven as a No. 1 goaltender. The only time in his career that he was available for a full playoff series at the NHL level, he had the worst statistical performance in the playoffs of any goaltender in the league since 2014.
This should have been a prove-it year for Jarry with his current contract expiring. Had he performed well, he could have played himself into a nice little raise on his previous $3.5 million cap hit. Instead, he dealt with injuries for most of the season and was limited to 47 games. When he was healthy enough to play, he was often still battling through injuries, and it showed. His 2.90 goals-against average was his worst showing in the last four years that he has been an NHL regular, and his .909 save percentage was tied with the 2020-21 season with his worst mark in the same span. Per the advanced stats site MoneyPuck, Jarry finished 72nd in the league in goals saved above expected in all situations with -2.8. He ranked 64th at five-on-five with -0.1.
Upgrading the starting goaltender position should be priority No. 1 for the Penguins this offseason. Who are some possible targets for trades or in free agency? Here's a look at five.
Juuse Saros
Team: Nashville Predators
Season totals: 64 games, 2.69 GAA, .919 SV%, 2 shutouts
Size: 5-11/180
Catches: Left
Age: 28
There are no rumblings, whispers or rumors out there that the Predators would entertain a trade proposal for Saros. But it's not totally unreasonable, either.
Saros still has two years left on his contract that carries a $5 million cap hit. That's a steal, considering his value. It would only be a $1.5 million raise on what Jarry makes this year. He'll likely be a Vezina finalist this year, though the Bruins' Linus Ullmark remains the favorite.
Saros led the league in goals saved above expected this season with 46.7. That's an average of 46.7 shots that statistically should have been goals based on their quality that he saved. He stole the Predators games they should have lost.
Saros doesn't have a ton of playoff experience. He was a backup to Pekka Rinne in 2017 when the Predators made it to the Stanley Cup Final. He was the starter over Rinne for the Predators' most recent playoff appearance in 2020-21, starting all six games as Nashville was knocked out by Carolina in the first round.
The Predators missed the playoffs for a second straight season and are entering a period of rebuilding or retooling. If they want to get bad before they get good again and load up on high draft picks, Saros is counterproductive toward that. He's too good.
Still, why would Nashville move on from Saros when he's still relatively young? It's not that crazy. The Predators have one of the best goaltending prospects, if not the best goaltending prospects in the league in 20-year-old Yaroslav Askarov, the No. 11 pick in the 2020 draft. Askarov is likely a future No. 1 in this league, and he's currently playing for the AHL's Milwaukee Admirals. If the Predators don't expect to contend for the Stanley Cup in the next year or two, that could be a good time to get Askarov regular playing time in the NHL.
Saros would surely cost a real haul in a trade. Picks, prospects, maybe some younger NHL-rostered players. But if goaltending is the Penguins' No. 1 concern right now, and there aren't many more years left with this core, it's worth it. Send over a whole draft class worth of picks, worry about the rebuild later. All that matters is the year right in front of them.
John Gibson
Team: Anaheim Ducks
Season totals: 53 games, 3.99 GAA, .899 SV%, 1 shutout
Size: 6-2/210
Catches: Left
Age: 29
Be totally honest with yourself: If Gibson was from some town in Minnesota or Massachusetts and not Pittsburgh, would he be getting even half as much attention from fans and media as someone the Penguins just have to get? Same with guys like Vince Trocheck last summer and J.T. Miller this trade deadline. For whatever reason, the Pittsburgh market leads the league in fans overrating their own local talent.
Gibson's not a bad goaltender. It certainly didn't help his case that he played behind the worst team in the league this season in Anaheim. But even within that context, he wasn't great this season. His -11.5 goals saved above expected ranked behind both of Anaheim's other goalies this season, both of whom played 19 games each: Anthony Stolarz (0.4) and Lukas Dostal (-0.3). When you account for the differences in ice time and look at straight rates in all three goaltenders' goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, Gibson (-0.230) still ranked behind Stolarz (0.029) and Dostal (-0.017).
It's been a few years since Gibson's been a top goaltender in this league. If we're talking about the Gibson from five or six years ago, then he'd be worth seriously targeting.
Could Gibson see a resurgence with a better team in front of him? Maybe! Would the Ducks be willing to trade him for an affordable return? Probably! Is he worth a massive haul in a trade? Absolutely not!
Gibson turns 30 this summer and has four years left on his contract that carries a $6.4 million cap hit. To unload that, the Ducks might be willing to retain some salary. A middle-man third team could also get involved in any potential trade to retain more salary. Doing so would cost the Penguins some draft capital and/or prospects, though.
If the Penguins could somehow get Gibson for relatively cheap with a team picking up salary, it might be worth the gamble over Jarry. But it would be just that -- a gamble.
Jeremy Swayman
Team: Boston Bruins
Season totals: 37 games, 2.27 GAA, .920 SV%, 4 shutouts
Size: 6-2/194
Catches: Left
Age: 24
If the Penguins want a young goaltender who could potentially be a No. 1 for years to come, Swayman's the guy. But of course, he would be costly.
Swayman was backup to Ullmark this season on the record-setting Bruins. He ranked eighth in the league in goals saved above expected with 24. When you account for ice time and look at goaltenders with at least eight games played, Swayman ranks No. 3 in rate of goals saved above expected per 60 minutes this season with 0.715, behind only Ullmark (0.883) and Saros (.735). Obviously the Bruins were an insanely good team, but goals saved above expected accounts for that. If the team isn't allowing much in terms of expected goals, that doesn't matter. The stat is a reflection of how the goaltender performed relative to his workload.
Why would the Bruins move on from Swayman? He's a restricted free agent, with his entry-level deal that carries a $925,000 cap hit expiring this summer. The Bruins are going to be in cap trouble this summer with only $10.5 million in projected cap space with seven forwards, six defensemen and one goaltender under contract for next season. Ullmark has two years left on his contract that carries a $5 million cap hit. Swayman is due for a significant raise that the Bruins likely can't afford, unless Swayman decided to take an absurd hometown discount.
Since Swayman is restricted, the Bruins have a lot of control here. Assuming they give him a qualifying offer, the Bruins would then be able to shop Swayman's rights in a trade or receive compensation in the form of draft picks from an offer sheet that Swayman might accept from another team.
The problem with an offer sheet is that the Penguins likely won't have the draft capital needed to extend an offer sheet. For offer sheets with an average annual value between $2,100,743 and $4,201,488, if the player signs and joins that team, then the acquiring team must give the player's old team one second-round pick. For offer sheets between $4,201,489 and $6,302,230, the draft pick compensation would be one first-round pick and one third-round pick. The picks must be the team's own picks (not another team's picks acquired in a trade) and must be for the following draft.
A $5 million cap hit for Swayman seems reasonable. If that's what it would take for an offer sheet, the Penguins can't do that. They have a third-round pick in 2024 but it is the pick originally belonging to the Golden Knights, acquired in the Teddy Blueger trade. That's not good enough -- it has to be their own. Their own third-round pick went to Anaheim in the Dmitry Kulikov deal.
There are a couple of avenues here if the Penguins really wanted Swayman: They could re-acquire their own third-round pick from the Ducks and make that offer sheet. Or, they could negotiate a trade with the Bruins to acquire Swayman's rights. That would likely be even more costly, though the Bruins still likely wouldn't seek high-caliber NHL-rostered players back in a deal given their own cap troubles. Picks, prospects, or NHL players on cheap deals would be reasonable.
Frederik Andersen
Team: Carolina Hurricanes
Season totals: 34 games, 2.55 GAA, .916 SV%, 3 shutouts
Size: 6-4/238
Catches: Left
Age: 33
Andersen is the best undrafted free agent available this summer. It's not a good market this year.
Andersen would likely be a lateral move from Jarry. He dealt with his own injury struggles this year, and missed two months in November and December with a lower-body injury. Unlike Jarry, his issues weren't recurring and he fared better when he was in the lineup.
Like Jarry, Andersen isn't exactly "proven" in the playoffs either. He hasn't played in the postseason since 2019-20. That was the fourth consecutive season in which he and the Maple Leafs were knocked out in the first round. His last real "run" was 16 games with the Ducks in 2014-15. Andersen and the Ducks were eliminated in seven games in the Western Conference Final by the would-be champion Blackhawks.
Andersen's expiring contract carries a $4.5 million cap hit. His next deal will should come with a lower salary. He's on the wrong side of 30 and isn't a long-term option in goal, though the Penguins don't need a long-term option. They just need to be worrying about the next year.
Andersen shouldn't be the target. But if July 1 comes around and the Penguins don't seem likely to make a trade, and they do want to move on from Jarry, Andersen is the best they could probably do.
Karel Vejmelka
Team: Arizona Coyotes
Season totals: 50 games, 3.43 GAA, .900 SV%, 3 shutouts
Size: 6-4/224
Catches: Right
Age: 26
Vejmelka, a native of Czechia, is only in his second season in North America. He was the Coyotes' No. 1 goaltender in both seasons.
Vejmelka played surprisingly well for a Coyotes team ranked 27th in the league, and is probably a major reason why Connor Bedard's odds of ending up in the desert are pretty low. His goals saved above expected this season was 11.1, good enough for 14th in the league.
Sportsnet reported back in January that the Coyotes would be willing to move Vejmelka for the right price. That didn't end up happening before the trade deadline, and Vejmelka finished the season in Arizona.
Vejmelka is on a very, very reasonable contract that has two years left at a $2.725 million cap hit. He'd be cheap on the books, but won't be cheap to acquire. The Penguins aren't the only team in the league that could be on the market for a goaltender this summer, and that'll drive Arizona's asking price up. But since the Coyotes are still rebuilding, Arizona would likely want a return of picks, prospects, or other young NHL players.
There's also the issue that Vejmelka has never played an NHL playoff game. He never even really got much postseason experience in Czechia, either. He was on back-to-back championship teams in 2017 and 2018, but was a backup those years and didn't play in the playoffs. His only playoff games in the top Czech league were six games in 2014-15 and eight games in 2020-21. He was the starter and played in eight games when Czechia won bronze in the World Championship in 2022.
