The NFL Draft starts this Thursday. The Steelers currently own picks 17, 32, 49, 80, 120 and, after the Allen Robinson trade (check out my thoughts on that move here), picks 241 and 251 in the seventh round.
It is pretty clear that Omar Khan isn’t shy about making trades, and he might have an opportunity to move down from 17 and certainly will get plenty of calls Friday about the first pick in the second round. If he were to trade up in the first round, Jalen Carter really would be the only target that makes sense in my eyes, considering the cost of getting into the top 10. Going backward is more likely than coming up in the first round.
If the Steelers are to move back -- a move I'd very much support -- from either of their first two selections, grabbing a pick or two in that process between 120th overall and the seventh round seems like a logical addition. That is a quality area of this draft where they currently hold no currency.
So, there could be movement. The Steelers also surely have a handful of veteran free agents still in mind to round out their roster. Their roster building absolutely will not be done after next weekend. However, their roster space is filling up quick. What spots still need addressed?
Let’s go position by position to address what they might be thinking in terms of filling available slots. Now, please don’t forget that there will be injuries. There will be a few players currently on this roster who aren’t getting much recognition that I don’t even mention, or an undrafted rookie free agent (such as Jaylen Warren last year) who really impresses. So, it isn’t as easy as "there is one open roster spot at running back, so they draft a running back, and all is well." Plus, the practice squad will also be filled out and dipped into time and time again during the season. There will be plenty more moves post-draft, folks.
The Steelers will bring four quarterbacks to training camp and will keep three. Kenny Pickett is the starter. Mitch Trubisky is the backup. The Steelers will likely sign a rookie free agent after the draft, but also could use a late pick again on the position to develop as Pickett’s long-term backup. Trubisky’s contract expires after the year, although extending him and lessening his cap hit this year isn’t a bad idea. If the Steelers don’t draft a quarterback, maybe they get on the phone with Mason Rudolph. There is one roster spot available for sure at quarterback, though, any way you slice it.
This is an excellent running back draft and maybe the Steelers dip their beak into that pool in the later rounds. Najee Harris is the starter. Warren is the backup. Last year, they kept three true running backs on the active roster and Derek Watt at fullback. A combination of Conner Heyward and Elandon Roberts could probably handle the fullback duties, saving a roster spot. The Steelers still have Anthony McFarland, and he still should be in the mix. But a late round pick here wouldn’t be a bad idea.
With Robinson now on the squad, the Steelers' top-five wide receivers are pretty set with Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Robinson, Calvin Austin, and Anthony Miller. The Steelers actually opened last season with seven wide outs on the roster. That seems very unlikely, but a sixth player could be in the mix, preferably someone who helps on special teams. Gunner Olszewski is still under contract, as is Cody White, an excellent special-teamer. The Steelers could bring back Miles Boykin or add another receiver via the draft. This is rather unclear at this point, but a camp battle for the sixth receiver spot seems likely.
The Steelers opened last year with Pat Freiermuth, Zach Gentry and Heyward at tight end and could do the exact same this season. That being said, if Watt isn’t in the equation at fullback, the Steelers would be smart to take advantage of the best position in this draft and select a tight end somewhere along the way and go into the season with four tight ends on the roster. And remember, their usage of 12 personnel (1 RB/2 TE) greatly increased during the second half of last season with much success. Tight ends, as a whole, are going to get a lot of snaps in this offense.
So, so far, the Steelers need a quarterback. And they could use a running back, wide receiver, and tight end. There is a difference between wants and needs. Quarterback is a need, albeit a minor one. Running back, wide receiver, and especially tight end are wants, especially for me, as I am infatuated with this tight end draft class.
As an example of this amazing tight end draft class, this is South Dakota State’s Tucker Kraft, generally considered the fifth or sixth tight end to come off the board. In most draft classes, Kraft gets selected in the second round. In this draft, maybe he is still available when the Steelers pick at 80. Such a situation would be extremely difficult to pass up. Oh, Kraft turned down very lucrative NIL offers from big time programs like Alabama a year ago to stay with his Jackrabbits teammates for the 2022 season.
The Steelers opened last year with just seven offensive linemen. That is very rare, but the group was quickly added to during the year. Mason Cole, James Daniels, Isaac Seumalo, Nate Herbig, Kevin Dotson, Chuks Okorafor and Dan Moore will make this team, although the possibility of Dotson getting traded at some point isn’t out of the question because his contract expires after this season. It also seems very likely that Le’Raven Clark will be on the opening day roster at offensive tackle. The Steelers still have room for one more addition, likely at tackle but possibly at center, though probably not two early draft picks.
Let’s just call offensive line as a whole, but very strongly at offensive tackle, a need position which gives us a total of two offensive needs and three offensive wants.
It isn’t exciting, but three roster spots will be taken up by specialists. Pressley Harvin will battle newly signed Braden Mann at punter, but that is about as much drama that will be surrounded with these three with Chris Boswell and Christian Kuntz back as well.
On defense, we are going to break this up into five categories: Defensive tackle, edge, linebacker, safety, and cornerback ... although there certainly is some overlap in this NFL world of position-less defensive football.
The Steelers usually keep six big guys on this side of the ball but opened the 2022 season with seven. I’d love to see a deep rotation here and if they can swing it, seven defensive linemen would be ideal. But remember, 290-plus-pound defensive linemen generally are not much help on the kickoff and punt teams.
Cam Heyward and Larry Ogunjobi are set in stone of course. DeMarvin Leal’s roster spot is also safe. Montravius Adams and Breiden Fehoko could make the team at nose tackle, or, they could be two dogs fighting for one bone. And one would certainly be in trouble if the Steelers drafted a nose tackle-type, which isn’t out of the question. But what about Isaiahh Loudermilk and Armon Watts? Similar to the nose tackle situation, both could make the squad, or they could be directly competing, a battle you’d expect Watts to win. Drafting a defensive tackle very high in this draft absolutely could be in the cards, and when it is all said and done, seven defensive tackles could make the opening day roster, but that will need to sort itself out.
T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith are the starting edge rushers and the Steelers likely will extend Highsmith’s contract at some point. The Steelers will almost certainly keep four players at this spot and, where things stand right now, only Quincy Roche, who isn’t guaranteed anything, is the only real player of note behind Watt and Highsmith. This is a growing need and is much more than a want entering the draft.
The Steelers will keep four or five linebackers. Cole Holcomb will be one of the starters and likely an every down player. Roberts is a placeholder opposite Holcomb for the time being, but his roster spot is safe, especially when factoring in his special teams abilities. Unless he falls on his face, Mark Robinson should be in the mix when the season kicks off. However, because he was inactive for almost the entirety of the 2022 season, Robinson’s special teams value is a bit of an unknown right now. Tanner Muse will surely make the squad based off his immense special teams value and maybe he can factor in with the defense, but that isn’t what Muse was hired to do. There is clearly a spot available, or one to be made, if the Steelers decide to draft a player at this position, which seems very likely.
An interesting player in this equation is Keanu Neal. As a much better version of Marcus Allen, Neal is basically a safety/linebacker tweener. He will make the team. As will Minkah Fitzpatrick and Damontae Kazee. Miles Killebrew is a core special-teamer and is likely to be back, but this group could get crowded if the Steelers use a mid-round pick at safety.
They want to play a high percentage of snaps with three safeties on the field. Maybe Neal is that third guy with Fitzpatrick and Kazee, but more likely, that player could be coming via the draft. That safety they draft would likely have slot coverage capabilities. Keeping five safeties could be the answer, but where does that leave Tre Norwood? Like Loudermilk on the defensive line from the same draft class, this could be a critical training camp and preseason for Norwood, and nothing is assured for him.
It would blow me away if the Steelers didn’t draft a cornerback with one of their top-three selections. Of all the draft predictions for this team, that is probably the one I feel strongest about. However, it is a very deep cornerback class and they might wait until the mid rounds. But they also could draft two cornerbacks, preferably an outside cover man and a slot option. There will be a rookie cornerback on this roster.
Patrick Peterson and Levi Wallace are basically locks to make the team. Peterson might also factor in as a slot option or even deep defender more than many might realize. James Pierre should be safe as well. The Steelers kept five cornerbacks to open last season, but six isn’t out of the question. Much of that will come down to who is the top slot option: a cornerback or a safety. Ahkello Witherspoon is still under contract, which is a little surprising, but they obviously like what he has shown, and they haven’t desperately needed the cap space by releasing Witherspoon. It looks like Witherspoon will come to camp and try to prove he is worth the money, which is certainly possible.
Arthur Maulet will surely be in camp and could stick another year with the team as a slot option and special teams contributor. But nothing is guaranteed for Maulet, and he might need an injury to occur for him to stick when final cuts are made depending how the draft goes at this position. The Steelers opened last season with 10 defensive backs on the roster.
Folks, meet Brian Branch from Alabama.
He didn’t test all that well and does not have great size. But he is a fantastic football player and with his abilities as a slot defender and as a true safety, adding him or a similar player (Quan Martin from Illinois) a little later, could go a long way to making the defensive back numbers game work. No one should complain if the Steelers drafted Branch at 17, but they should do jumping jacks if he falls to 32, both of which are possible.
I’m betting Mike Tomlin adores this player:
The way I see it on defense, a defensive tackle in the Heyward mold is pretty close to a need and a nose tackle type is a semi-strong want. One more edge defender is a very strong need, although that doesn’t necessarily have to be a high draft choice. And before long, a second edge defender is also a need. This happens to be a very good edge defender draft class by the way. Another linebacker is close to a need and that player could be anywhere from the 32nd pick overall to a mid-round selection. One more safety is about 75% a need and 25% a want. One likely will be added at some point.
Adding one cornerback is a must. Adding a second is a want.
Adding up the wants and needs, the total comes to about eight needs and five wants, give or take, with the importance varying from early-round selection to undrafted free-agent signing. If you recall, the Steelers currently have five early- and mid-round picks, all in the top 120 overall, as well as the two seventh-rounders, which are hard to count on in terms of making a final roster.
It also should be noted that Tomlin usually gives Danny Smith about five core special teams players who have some offensive/defensive positional value, but they are getting paid for special teams first and foremost. The contenders for that role are Heyward, but he could have an increased role in the offense, the sixth wide receiver, the fourth edge defender, the backup linebackers, and safeties, most notably Killebrew, and maybe the third running back.
Other players, particularly cornerbacks, also contribute on special teams of course, but keeping a cornerback who is a poor coverage player just because of his abilities on special teams usually doesn’t work out. Those guys almost must play on the defense. Lastly on this note, not just every late-round rookie is a plug-and-play NFL special teams stalwart, and some of those guys never played a special teams snap in their lives before entering the league.
Just when you were excited about the Steelers' offseason moves and the depth they have created, this somewhat negative view of the roster gets spelled out for you. Don’t fret, players will step up and be found from all over before the season kicks off. And remember, the roster won’t be complete when the Steelers' final draft choice is in the books. Khan and company will continue to find bargains amongst the current free agent veteran crop.
An NFL roster is an ever-changing organism, but it goes without saying that Thursday, Friday, and Saturday will be instrumental in its makeup for 2023 and well beyond. Buckle up, it is going to be a fantastic and exciting ride.
