DENVER -- There's a chance that this weekend's series against the Cardinals was just what Ke'Bryan Hayes needed. He drew a walk and got at least one extra-base hit in each of the three games he played, which included a leadoff home run and triple Saturday and Sunday. It was a solid weekend.
It was a much-needed weekend, too.
Hayes has cooled off since his torrid spring training, and even with those extra-base hits now on his ledger, he is slashing just .186/.250/.339 on the young season. He's finally healthy. He packed on muscle this winter. He worked on his hitting approach and started to dive into batted ball data to get more backspin. But at the one-tenth mile marker of the season, he's struggled at the plate.
Of course this needs to all come with the obligatory "small sample size" warning label that goes on any April Mound Visit, but when I talked to Hayes earlier in the series, it was clear he wasn't too happy with the production or the way his at-bats felt.
“For me, it always goes back to my routine," Hayes was telling me. "Because a lot of the stuff I do in my routine, I try to over-exaggerate it. It kind of works for me and translates into the game. So I’m just trying to figure out what it is that I need to iron out.”
Hayes isn't the type of player who takes a certain amount of batting practice each day. If he likes how his swing feels early, he'll stop at 10 or 15 cuts and just focus on carrying that feeling it into a game. Rain in St. Louis this weekend kept a lot of batting practice indoors, but when Hayes has been out on the field, he hasn't had many of those 10-15 swing practices. He's been looking for an answer.
“[I’m] trying to hit the ball square with that true spin more in the game, whereas I’m slicing and fouling off too many pitches since the start of the season," Hayes said. "I feel like I’m fouling off a lot of very hittable pitches.”
The data supports this. Entering Sunday's game, Hayes had seen 62 pitches that Baseball Savant considered over the heart of the plate. He did not whiff once in those 62 pitches, but he also fouled it off or took a strike 36 times (58.1%). Of those 62 pitches, just seven were converted into hits on 26 balls in play (.269 batting average, omitting strike outs). For comparison, the league is hitting .364, sans strikeouts, on pitches over the heart of the plate. He's had opportunities and is getting the bat to the ball, sometimes yielding a high exit velocity, but the contact hasn't been consistently there.
The key word is consistently, because he has driven a couple, including this 440-foot tank on Saturday, the longest of his major-league career:
All my homies love Ke'Bryan Hayes leadoff dingers pic.twitter.com/jZ1UHPjKJE
— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) April 15, 2023
Even with the ups and downs, Hayes still is averaging a 91.5 mph exit velocity, which is a half-mph better than last season, with a significantly better whiff percentage. He came up empty in just over 20% of his swings in 2021 and 2022. So far in 2023, it's just 14.6%. These are really good traits for a hitter to have, and if you buy into expected stats, Hayes has been unlucky out of the gate.
Going by his whiff and walk rates, plus batted ball data, Baseball Savant projects him to have an expected .279 batting average so far this year with a .447 expected slugging percentage. His .338 xwOBA would have ranked just outside the top 10 for third basemen last year. Expected stats don't show up on the back of the baseball card or on the scoreboard, and they are a better descriptive tool than a predictive tool. But if you're looking for hope, the advanced data is in Hayes' favor.
But we've seen this before. Hayes has always hit the ball hard. Outside of 2020, it hasn't translated into the results one would expect from that soldi contact. And again, it needs to be said that if he elevated and pulled the ball more, he could be so much more than someone barely above his position's median.
Entering this series, Hayes' focus was on his hands. He wanted to get his timing back, and moving the hands into the load position was the first part of that.
“It’s finding that when I’m loading, I’m getting my hands to the right spot early enough where I’m just waiting on the pitch," Hayes said. "Then all I have to do is deliver the backside, have that true [swing] path through the middle. If I happen to catch it early, it’s a double into left-center. If I’m a little late, a line-drive either to right-center or through the middle or that low liner through first and second.”
Taking a look at a couple of his swings, it's clear he's made an adjustment with his hands. Here's a swing from the opening series against the Reds compared to that home run Saturday:
Hayes is late on that pitch against the Reds. The 109.5 mph exit velocity is great, but he's behind on the cutter and doesn't find the right contact point. The pitch hung right over the middle, so it's one he probably wants back. If you watch that swing, the first part of his body that's in motion is his hands. It seems to mess with his whole timing.
On the home run swing, it appears his hands were set higher while waiting for the pitch. Perhaps it's the angle, but at the very least, the hands are quieter. There's less motion to get to his load, and he obviously was on time for that one. This could be something to watch going forward. Simplifying and cutting down on motions could help his timing for an extended period of time.
"Just having my body in the right spot, swinging at the pitches I want, I was able to do that today a few times," Hayes said postgame, looking a bit looser knowing he's on the board now.
Not every swing was a winner this weekend, but he had a solid series and it was the best he looked this season. If he can build on that for a couple series and get his actual results closer to his peripherals, then this could potentially be the breakout season that has eluded Hayes outside of that month in 2020.
He also knows not to put too much in early results. He learned that the hard way a year ago.
“Last year, I started hitting .300, .340 for a month and a half and I finished how I finished. I’m not going to stress too much because I know the season is so long. That’s something that’s helped me. I know I’m right there. Something just needs to click. I know I’m close."
