The Penguins aren't in control of their fate as they enter this last stretch of the regular-season schedule.
With a 40-30-10 record, the Penguins have 90 points in the standings and sit just on the outside in the race for the two wild card spots in the Eastern Conference. Both the Panthers and Islanders occupy the two wild card spots with 91 points. Since all three teams have two games remaining, the first tiebreaker is the number of regulation wins, and the Panthers have the edge with 36 over the Islanders' 35. The Penguins have just 31 regulation wins, so they cannot catch up to either the Panthers or Islanders to take control of the tiebreaker. They must beat the Panthers or Islanders on points alone to get in.
There are a couple of paths to make that happen. The Penguins could win their last two games and get in if either the Panthers or Islanders lose at least. one of their games. If the Penguins win their last two games, they'd also get in if either the Panthers or Islanders lose both of their last two games in overtime. If the Penguins split their last two games, they would need one of the Panthers or Islanders to lose out the rest of the way in regulation.
The Panthers and Islanders don't have the easiest of schedules to finish. The Panthers on Monday host the Maple Leafs, who are in a playoff position but cannot move up or down in the standings. They finish the season at home Thursday against the Hurricanes, who could potentially be fighting for the No. 1 spot in the Metropolitan Division in that game.
The Islanders play the Capitals on the road Monday night, then host the Canadiens Wednesday in the regular-season finale.
The Penguins finish the season against the league's two bottom-feeders, hosting the Blackhawks on Tuesday and playing the Blue Jackets on the road on Thursday. Both teams are tied for the fewest points in the league standings at 56, and the Blackhawks have the tiebreaker as a result of having two additional regulation wins.
The Penguins need some help across the league to get into the playoffs. They should be able to do their part and win out, given the opponents left on the schedule. But they certainly aren't taking the Blackhawks or Blue Jackets for granted just because of their position in the standings.
"I don't care where a team is in the standings," Mike Sullivan told me after Monday's practice at PPG Paints Arena when I asked if there's a danger of underestimating either opponent. "It doesn't matter. We know we have to win. That's where we're at. Regardless of the team we play, where they sit in the standings, has no bearing on what our mindset is and how we're going to go about our business when the puck drops at 7 o'clock. We're going to make sure that we do everything in our power to be ready to play, and we're going to do everything in our power to dictate the terms out there as we do with every game that we go into."
It's tough to offer much of a "preview" in terms of the lineups for either team. It would benefit both of them to lose as many of their last three games as possible, since that would give them the best odds at securing the No. 1 overall pick and the rights to draft Connor Bedard, widely regarded as a potential generational talent. The difference between finishing 31st and 32nd in the standings is steep -- whoever finishes last has a 25.5% chance of landing Bedard, while whoever finishes next-to-last finishes with just a 13.5% chance.
It's often said that players don't "tank" -- management does. Whoever is dressed that night will be doing their best to win the game, that's why it wouldn't be unexpected to see either team sit some of their best players and dress a more young, inexperienced lineup.
The Blackhawks will be playing the Penguins on a second half of a back-to-back. They'll play the Wild Monday night in Chicago and dress goaltender Alex Stalock in net, which means that the Penguins could potentially see Petr Mrazek. Though Mrazek has received more of the share of Chicago's starts this season, his results are considerably worse, with a 9-22-3 record, .892 save percentage and a 3.71 goals-against average. The rest of the lineup for the Blackhawks' meeting against the Wild is pretty standard:
Tyler Johnson - Jonathan Toews - Jason Dickinson
Anders Bjork - Andreas Athanasiou - Robinson
Boris Katchouk - Jujhar Khaira - Joey Anderson
Austin Wagner - MacKenzie Entwistle - Reese Johnson
Caleb Jones - Seth Jones
Wyatt Kaiser - Connor Murphy
Andreas Englund - Nikita Zaitsev
The Blackhawks' two leading scorers are no longer on the team, with Max Domi being traded to the Stars and Patrick Kane getting moved to the Rangers. Their third-leading scorer, Taylor Raddysh, is done for the season with a lower-body injury. Their next biggest threats are forwards Andreas Athanasiou -- their fourth-leading scorer -- and Jonathan Toews, who recently returned to Chicago's lineup after being sidelined since January with long COVID and chronic immune response syndrome. Toews, who is in the last year of his contract, is potentially playing his last three games ever in a Blackhawks uniform and is going to want to go out on a high note. On defense, it's Seth Jones who had the potential to give the Penguins the most trouble.
GETTY
Chicago's Jonathan Toews takes a shot on Tristan Jarry
When the Penguins see the Blue Jackets later this week, it'll be the first game in a back-to-back for Columbus. The lineup the Blue Jackets dressed in their last game Saturday against the Rangers was pretty bleak, having lost forwards Patrik Laine (triceps strain) and Lane Pederson (upper-body), Mathieu Olivier (leg), defensemen Nick Blankenburg (ankle) and Erik Gudbranson (separated shoulder), and goaltender Elvis Merzlikins (leg) due to injury during the month of March. They're carrying Michael Hutchinson and Jon Gillies as their two goaltenders, who have a combined 15 games at the NHL level between them during this season. They're working with this group of skaters:
Johnny Gaudreau - Boone Jenner - Kirill Marchenko
Kent Johnson - Jack Roslovic - Emil Bemstrom
Eric Robinson - Sean Kuraly - Liam Foudy
Joona Luoto - Hunter McKown - Trey Fix-Wolansky
Gavin Bayreuther - Andrew Peeke
Tim Berni - Adam Boqvist
Marcus Bjork - David Jiricek
GETTY
Jason Zucker carries the puck away from Columbus' Jack Roslovic
The Penguins have fared well against both teams in previous meetings this season. The Penguins are 3-0 against Columbus, outscoring the Blue Jackets 15-8 in those meetings. Their last matchup was a 5-4 overtime win at PPG Paints Arena a month ago. The Penguins and Blackhawks have only met one other time this season, a 5-3 Penguins win back in November in what was Evgeni Malkin's 1,000th game.
On paper, these games should be blowouts in the Penguins' favor. But the players know that the games aren't played on paper, and they have to treat these game as if they were playoff matchups.
"There shouldn't be," Bryan Rust told me when I asked if there's a danger of underestimating these teams. "Especially with where we are. We know what we have to do, we know what's at stake."
"With this group right now, I don't think we're underestimating anybody," Mark Friedman said. "Every game is important. We're playing for our lives. It's going to be a do-or-die game, and I think we're going to come out playing pretty well."
The Penguins have done well against non-playoff teams this season. Their record against teams not currently in a playoff position is 24-6-4. But a several of those loses have come within the last month, like a 7-4 loss to the Red Wings in Detroit on March 28, a 2-1 loss to the Senators at home on March 20, and a 6-4 loss to the Canadiens at home on March 14.
"I feel like we've struggled against teams lower in the standings," Rickard Rakell said. "If anything, it's a motivation for us to feel like we can't take anything for granted. Too much is on the line here for us, we can't drop any games. Starting tomorrow tonight, we have to do whatever we can to get the two points. Whatever it takes."
I asked Rakell why he thinks it is that the Penguins haven't come out on top against some of those lesser teams lately, and he said that it's tough to say.
"They have youth, speed and talent," he said. "They don't really have a system. I don't know if it's us trying to play our system when they're kind of all over the place. It's tough to say, I don't have the answers."
The team up first on the schedule, the Blackhawks, have the potential to bring that kind of game.
"They're exactly that," Rakell said. "They don't have much to play for, so they'll play for personal success. They're trying to bring something to their team for next season, so they're trying to showcase themselves on the team. They're probably going to try to play a lot of one-on-one and whatever they can out there to show up. I guess we'll see. It's been a long time since we've played them. We'll see on the pre-scout."
The Penguins know that they have a challenge ahead of them in their next two games. But in the meantime, they'll be keeping a close eye on the Panthers' and Islanders' games, hoping the Hockey Gods give them a little help along the way.
"Hopefully something plays in our favor," Rakell said. "Then we just try to do our best to get our job done."
