If you're looking for good news regarding the Penguins' most recent acquisition, you aren't going to find it here.
Mikael Granlund, acquired from the Predators for a second-round pick Wednesday, has put together a pretty solid NHL career. Not special, but solid. However, now 31, his best days seem to be well in the rearview mirror. Aside from a severely diminished overall impact the past two seasons, his playing style is the antithesis of what this team needs with Friday's trade deadline rapidly approaching.
On several occasions, Ron Hextall mentioned Kasperi Kapanen's 30 points in 40 games during the 2020-21 season as part of the reason why the latter was signed to a two-year contract that ended with him getting waived 50-some games into the deal. Like Kapanen, it's fair to wonder if Hextall's evaluation of Granlund didn't scratch any deeper than the scoresheet.
On the surface, Granlund doesn't appear to be having a poor season. His nine goals aren't anything eye-catching, but he's produced 27 assists for 36 points in 58 games after putting up 64 points in 80 games last season.
So, what's the problem?
There's a baseline production level expected of each ice-time threshold. In each of the past three seasons, Granlund has played first-line minutes with the Predators, obviously helping his raw point totals. Unless I'm missing something, his ice time is going to take a considerable hit playing third-line minutes with the Penguins. Additionally, he's been a staple on their top power-play unit, something he won't sniff with the Penguins. 28 of his 64 points last season came on the power play, 25 of which were assists.
When adjusting for ice time, his production rates are nothing spectacular. His 1.33 points per hour at 5-on-5 puts him ahead of just four Penguins forwards this season. Two of them (Teddy Blueger, Brock McGinn) were either traded or waived, and the other two are Jeff Carter and Josh Archibald. Even if you take Granlund's highest 5-on-5 production rate over the three seasons prior to this one (1.58), it would check in at only 10th on this Penguins team that desperately needs an impactful boost.
And for as much as you might be inclined to write that off as simply playing for the Predators, Granlund's been sharing the ice with really good players. The three he's spent the most time with in the past three seasons are Matt Duchene, Filip Forsberg and Roman Josi.
Without question, Granlund's passing ability is the best thing he brings to the table. According to manually tracked data from Corey Sznajder of All Three Zones, he ranks in the 81st percentile in primary shot assists and the 96th percentile in high-danger passes at 5-on-5 among NHL forwards this season. That's pretty good, even if it isn't translating to strong primary assist rates right now. But will his passing ability really make a difference playing on a line with Carter and Danton Heinen?
The thing about Granlund is that, despite his slippery in-zone passing, he is so uninvolved when it comes to transitioning the puck and shoots so infrequently that his offensive impacts are rather abysmal. If Carter is sticking in the lineup, he really, really needs a linemate who can get the puck up ice. That's not Granlund, as he ranks in the 10th percentile exiting the defensive zone and the 7th percentile entering the offensive zone. The 7.73 shots he attempts per hour at 5-on-5 ranks dead-last among Penguins forwards, as does the lowly 3.52 of them that make it on target per hour.
Those are two massive factors behind Granlund's 9th percentile impact toward creating quality offense this season, per JFresh Hockey. That's lower than all of Carter, Blueger and McGinn. It's not a one-off, either, as he ranked in the 8th percentile last season. If he miraculously finds a middle ground from his 56th percentile mark two seasons ago, I still struggle to see what was so enticing about his game that warranted squandering the majority of $6-plus million in cap space that fortunately appeared out of thin air, not to mention committing to him for an additional two seasons after this one at a $5 million cap hit.
I haven't even made it to the most troubling part: Granlund has some of the worst defensive metrics across the league over the last three seasons. Once upon a time, he was one of the more unheralded two-way possession players in the game. That time is no more. His impact toward limiting quality chances against this season ranks in the 0th percentile. As in, 100% of NHL forwards are doing a better job at preventing their team from getting hemmed in their own zone.
Taking a gamble on a player with awful defensive impacts would've been worth it for someone like Max Domi, who has even better passing metrics and the primary assist rates to back it up. But for Granlund? I really don't get it.
At 5 feet 10, 185 pounds, he plays more of a finesse game than an energy, gritty, in-your-face game. Respectfully, after intently watching his tape, I don't know how you'd dub him the hard-to-play-against type. After watching these Penguins all season, I also don't know how any trade target could be anything but.
Every bit of what I've mentioned was abundantly apparent when the Penguins visited the Predators in Nashville Tuesday night.
A little over halfway through the first period, Granlund hopped on a loose puck through the slot with momentum, but instead of taking the golden opportunity to shoot, opted to pass wide:
Don't get me wrong, I think that's a great glimpse at his nifty passing ability. That said, it also provides a glimpse as to why his offensive impact has faltered. Chances can't be created in the absence of a shot. Again, one would think another pass-first player goes against what this team really needs.
Going back to the hard-to-play-against thing, another reason his offensive impact ranks so low is that he's rather pedestrian on the forecheck. Part of what gives the Penguins defensive trouble is when they peel off from pressuring up ice too soon, allowing an easy transition for the opposition.
Granlund isn't likely to help in that regard, as he's often guilty of doing the same:
That was a perfect opportunity to isolate Kris Letang and seal him off along the wall before he could make a move or, if nothing else, force him into a low-percentage play. Instead, Granlund ended up taking too sharp of an angle in his route before peeling away rather than following through on his pressure with a check or some sort of stick action.
It may seem nit-picky, but those subtleties make a world of difference. Mike Sullivan talks about doing the little things right, consistently. I'm not seeing much of that with Granlund.
I'm starting to think not doing the little things might be the largest contributor to the Predators scoring just 44.6% of the goals and controlling a team-worst 44.8% of the expected goals with him on the ice at 5-on-5 this season.
After a rebound looked like it was about to spark the Predators on a counterattack, Granlund swung against the grain, away from the puck, rather than swinging with the puck to the strong side of the ice. His miscalculation resulted in a failed exit:
It's the little things. Had he swung with the puck, he could've been an outlet with momentum for his defenseman getting pressured along the wall. Alas, no one was home.
Granlund isn't a slow player, but he's definitely lost a step the past few seasons. He can still get zooming in open ice, though he doesn't have separation speed and lacks bursts in tight spaces. Because of that, he tries to pass his way out of pressure even when the best option is to skate it himself.
Sometimes it goes like this:
Plays like that are another contributing factor to spending more time in the defensive zone, thus, an even worse defensive impact.
It didn't take long at all to uncover his in-zone defensive issues. One thing's for sure: His rogue coverage and tendency to puck watch without anticipation will fit right in.
Watch this one:
I've been wrong plenty of times before and I'll be wrong about a million more times, but I'm not seeing a player, by data or film, that moves the needle much at all in a best-case scenario.
If Granlund really ends up being the Penguins' main deadline addition, it's a massive failure by the general manager to properly address the team's needs not even a year removed from committing to another quest for a Stanley Cup in the Sidney Crosby era.
