Kovacevic: All this hope has to be built on a bona fide breakout ... or five

BRADENTON, Fla. -- "Right there. Over on the other side."

This was a year ago. Bryan Reynolds pointed right at Jack Suwinski, seated at his stall on the opposite wall of the Pirates' spring clubhouse here, mere milliseconds after I'd asked him to contribute to my annual player survey to predict which of their peers will rise up as the team's breakout player that summer.

One problem: I had no clue what Suwinski looked like. So I sought an ID from Reynolds.

"That," he'd reply, "is freaking Josh Hamilton."

It wasn't, of course. Still isn't. But between Suwinski's late-April leap straight from Class AA Altoona to Pittsburgh, to his unforgettable three-blast Father's Day with his dad, Tim, watching at PNC Park ...

... to 19 home runs in just 326 rookie at-bats, yeah, it'd seem Reynolds fared just fine.

 "It was OK," Reynolds would say with a small grin.

So, who's the one this time?

I began this survey way back in 2008, and it's safe to say it never would've lasted had that spring's selection not been a still-baby-faced Nate McLouth, who'd wind up an All-Star that summer. Reynolds himself would become the selection in 2019, and that turned out 'OK' and 'not bad,' as well.

This time, though, unlike McLouth and Reynolds and most of the other years' picks, there won't be any overwhelming consensus. That's the sense I got from countless conversations on the subject this week at Pirate City, even extending into some coaching ranks in search of greater clarity.

Maybe that's ideal, of course. Maybe this camp really is going to see all the "competition" Derek Shelton's speaking about endlessly in this fold. Maybe it'll even result in some of the "winning" that Shelton and everyone else now insists these Pirates are fully ready to pursue. And if so, having several bona fide breakout candidates sure beats having a couple, particularly when a team's coming off consecutive 100-loss seasons.

Naturally, I approached the super-scout first.

"I'll tell you who I like," Reynolds began. "Have you seen Gorski? That's the guy."

I hadn't seen him in a baseball activity yet, but anyone following the system in 2022 would've been aware of Matt Gorski's wild climb up four rungs of the minor-league scale, from both Class A affiliates up all the way up to Class AAA Indianapolis while slashing .280/.358/.598 and slugging 24 home runs. For that, he'd be named the organization's Willie Stargell Slugger of the Year.

Which, as one might imagine, meant next to nothing to Gorski compared to my informing him of Reynolds' choice:

"Really?" he'd react, apparently playing right along that this was some relevant thing, then adding, "That's pretty tight. I'd love to have the season that Jack had last year. That was incredible."

Mm-hm. And it wouldn't be easily matched. But Gorski's got plenty of variables on his side: He's a mature 25 for a prospect, he's navigated each new level with a shrug, he's got an unusual bonus dimension to his power and 6-4, 205-pound build in that he'll run the bases -- even steal them -- efficiently, he's a solid defensive outfielder and, oh, right, one other thing: He could be moved to first base.

The offseason additions of veterans Carlos Santana and Ji-Man Choi were aimed at solving that shortcoming for a year, but there's no current long-term option at the position in sight. Unless that becomes Gorski.

"I don't mind it," he told me of first base. "I'll play wherever they put me."

And who might Suwinski see as his successor?

This was fun:

"I'll give you one guy," Suwinski replied before adding with comical pauses, "Jared. Triolo."

Oh, my. The system's latest elite glove at the hot corner.

"I mean, he's obviously really good on defense. But he's also really solid all-around."

Triolo's 25, like Gorski, and he's still gotten no higher than Altoona. But the defense is beyond big-league ready, and the .282/.376/.419 offense indicate there might be more there. He'll open in Indianapolis and, as I mentioned to Suwinski in the above exchange, there's always room for versatility and excellence in the field in Pittsburgh.

The pitcher cited most often wasn't a starter but, rather, Colin Holderman, the projected setup man in front of David Bednar. And maybe more.

Holderman, 27, stands 6-7 and comes with a repertoire that's so electric and so varied that it'd seem a wonder he hasn't yet had his breakout at his age. But his late bloom didn't really begin until a stirring 15-appearance string with the Mets last summer in which he put up a 1.019 WHIP, 18 strikeouts and seven walks over 17 2/3 innings.

Check out this cool team-produced mic'd-up sequence this week between Holderman and new catcher Austin Hedges:

Mitch Keller gave Holderman his breakout nod, adding all kinds of modern platitudes like, "He's filthy, disgusting, just ... I don't even have words."

Hoping for actual words, I went to Justin Meccage, the bullpen coach.

"Nasty," he'd start out. "Just nasty."

And after a brief pause, "Nasty."

Oh, come on, man.

"No really, I'll try," Meccage came back with a laugh. "He's got a special arsenal that you don't see often in our game. It's a perfect combination for what you want to see on the back end."

PIRATES

Ji Hwan Bae takes infield practice at Pirate City, Bradenton, Fla.

My own nod?

No one asked -- that'd be weird -- but I've got Ji Hwan Bae. And to be honest, I was surprised only Reynolds mentioned him even in passing. Because there can't be a player at any level of the system in a better spot to capitalize on Major League Baseball's new rules with the bigger bases, banning the shift, limiting pickoff throws and keeping the pitchers to a clock.

Bae, 23, slashed .289/.362/.430 for Indianapolis last summer before earning a late promotion to Pittsburgh and looking no less comfortable and confident in 10 games with 11 hits, two walks, three doubles, 3-for-3 on steals, and six RBIs. He's a throwback, really, in terms of his Freddy Sanchez-type contact hitting, plus speed and energy to spare.

And hey, seen these new bases yet?

GETTY

The old 15-inch base on the left, the new 18-inch base on the right.

My goodness. They're like hotel pillows now. 

That's a lot of close calls now going to the runner. And with Bae's skill set, a lot of de facto doubles regardless of how hard he does/doesn't hit the ball.

"I think it will help me a lot," he told me of the rules, emphasizing the shift. "So many times, I hit the ball up the middle, and it's an out. Now, there will be three holes in the infield again. That's exciting for me."

Did someone say exciting?

By far the best answer of the survey came from Oneil Cruz when I asked him, as with everyone else, who'll be the Pirates' breakout player in 2023.

He stayed silent for a second or so, presumably to feign that he was running through some list in his mind, then spread that complete-coastline of a smile across his face and answered, "Me," before walking off.

Anyone who cares to argue would do well to find a ladder first.