Healthy and stronger, Hayes' real power boost could come from spin

BRADENTON, Fla. -- If you catch batting practice at Pirate City, you might notice that Ke'Bryan Hayes tends to not hit as many home runs during batting practice compared to some of his teammates.

Don't read too much into that. Hayes could go deep if he wanted to. He has the power, evidenced by him averaging 91 mph on his batted balls last year, second on the team behind Oneil Cruz.

That raw power wasn't reflected in his slugging stats last year, though. Last year, 36 players had at least 300 plate appearances on the season and got the majority of their playing time at third base. Hayes' .345 slugging percentage ranked 33rd, and his .659 OPS ranked 30th. Only two hitters across baseball had a higher average exit velocity but a lower OPS than Hayes: Franmil Reyes and Matt Vierling, both of whom were cast off from their teams this winter.

So for Hayes, there were two focuses to try to tap in to more of that offensive potential. The first was to get healthy after a hip and back injury lingered all year. He did that, and showed up to camp 15 pounds heavier, all of it muscle.

The second is he started to look for the batted ball metrics and sticking to his process. He'd prefer to do that during batting practice rather than just putting one over the wall.

"We all know we can hit a home run in BP," Hayes told me. "If you’re a professional baseball player, you can hit a home run in BP. [What matters to me is] how is your ball flight? Is it true? Is it going like this or that.”

That "true" spin is backspin. Like pitches, batted balls have different types of spin and spin rates. Back spin creates lift, in the same way that high spin four-seam fastballs create the illusion of rise. Too much backspin can be a bad thing -- too much lift does eventually create too much air drag on the fly ball because it's too far up in the air -- but generally speaking, backspinning efficiently will help the ball travel more efficiently. It's why two batted balls can have the same launch angle and exit velocity but travel different amounts. It's something Jack Suwinski was complimented on periodically last year and how he hit 19 home runs despite having generally middling exit velocities.

There's still a lot to learn about batted ball spin, but these articles by Justin Choi of FanGraphs and this one from Rapsodo are a pretty good place to start.

For Hayes, the muscle was an important addition, but he wanted to make sure he also hit smarter. Be deliberate with how he attacks the ball.

“When I was younger, it was just hitting," Hayes explained. "Now, it’s really being able to assess the ball flight, what kind of spin is coming off the ball. Am I getting this side spin or that side spin? True backspin? That’s been a main focus for me, just assessing my spin.”

The overall strategy is essentially the same: Make contact and hit it hard. Even in a down offensive year, he did those two things very well.

And he did it without selling out for power.

“I’m not worried about trying to hit home runs," Hayes said. "In 2020 when things were right, I wasn’t trying to hit home runs. Even in the spring training before where I hit like 10, I was never trying to hit a home run. There was never a time when I was getting into the box and think, ‘I’m gonna try to hit a home run.’ It was trying to hit the ball hard, hit it with true spin. Hit it hard and it’s gonna go. If not, it’s going to be a double.”

Hayes is emphasizing that because he fell for this trap last year. He had a good start at the plate last season, hitting .272 with a .708 OPS through May 27, or his first 39 games played. That translated to a 105 wRC+, which is above average. And he did it all without hitting any home runs, which would have greatly boosted that slugging percentage. He hit several balls that were close, but whether it was the cold weather, the deadened ball or just rotten luck, none went over the fence.

“The first two months of the season, I was playing fine," Hayes said. I felt fine."

After a moment to pause, he tried to explain what changed. "I think it was I never hit a home run. I kind of let that get in my head, trying to let that get into my head versus sticking with what I’m doing.”

He started to press. He wasn't going up searching for that home run, but he didn't follow his strategy at the plate. Mix that in with his injuries and it led to four forgettable months at the plate, undoing what looked to be a potentially plus offensive season.

And this Pirates team needs Hayes to carry his weight offensively. He's an elite defender and should once again be the biggest threat to dethrone Nolan Arenado as the perpetual Gold Glove winner at the position. That gives him a ton of value, so much so that Baseball Reference still valued him at 4.3 WAR last year, tops among all Pirates last season.

But if he could hit, it would propel him the 26-year-old infield cornerstone into a potential All-Star.

Two injury-filled seasons in the majors may have deterred some from believing he has that offensive potential, but if he's fully healthy and maximizing his contact, he has a shot of being a 20-20 player.

“He’s shown it in flashes," Andy Haines told me. "We know the best version [of himself] is in there. It’s around the cusp of getting to it. That’s what we’re all working hard to support him on.”

Hayes insists that the injury last year didn't have an impact on what he was trying to do offensively, but his hitting coach saw him grind last year through the movements that give him the potential to be great. He was able to do it, but he could tell Hayes was not 100%.

“I wish guys got more credit for playing through some things," Haines said. "The reality is they really don’t. I think he deserves a lot of credit."

If nothing else, the year was a learning experience. Hayes worked with trainers and built a program this winter to help him take care of his body better and keep the weight on for a full season. It was a weight lifting injury that set in motion his 2022 campaign. that wasn't going to happen again.

"Anytime you're able to go through a major-league season, whether it's a full major-league season or you're injured, it's extremely important," Derek Shelton said. "The most important thing is the way he showed up in camp. How he looks, how he's moving."

Now preparing for what is essentially his second full season, he feels he's in better position to take a step forward in 2023, both in terms of health and having a gameplan.

“Last year was really my first real season," Hayes said. "Getting through that, going through the offseason, figuring out some stuff with my body, feeling a lot better and being able to put weight on. Now, it’s about finding my plan of whenever I get to that, having it not go like that. Being able to get back on a plan versus, like, crash.”