Jeff Carter characterized the Penguins' third line as being "real hit or miss" lately.
He's not wrong. There have been a handful of "hits" this season for that group, like a week ago in Anaheim when both Carter and Kasperi Kapanen had goals against a league-basement Ducks team. There's games where the third line is fine, in that they won't score, but they won't be responsible for a goal against, either. Relatively speaking, that's a hit.
There's been minor shuffling in the bottom six that has affected that line throughout the season. Saturday was one of those instances, with Brock McGinn getting moved down to Teddy Blueger's like and Drew O'Connor getting bumped up to Carter's left wing, opposite Kapanen.
Even so, the results are largely the same. The "hits" are few and far between, and the third line as a whole has been one of this roster's big "misses" this season. It wouldn't be hyperbolic to say that the third line has been among the worst regular combinations in the entire league this season, as the analytics (and eye test) will often show.
The Penguins' 5-2 loss to the Devils Saturday evening at PPG Paints Arena might have been the biggest "miss" for the third line this season. It's getting impossible to ignore that group's struggles.
The combination of O'Connor, Carter and Kapanen was on the ice as a unit for a total of 8:37 at five-on-five in Saturday's loss, and the results were pretty disastrous. When they were on the ice, the Penguins allowed 14 shot attempts and registered seven. They allowed seven high-danger attempts and registered only one. They allowed 13 unblocked attempts and registered just three. They were outshot 11-3, and they were outscored 1-0, with the lone goal being Dawson Mercer's first-period tally after a scramble in front of the Penguins' net:
As bad as those results are, they were even worse through the first two periods, and were a major part of the Penguins trailing 3-1 at second intermission. They played an even five minutes through the first two frames. They trailed in shot attempts 1-12, high-danger attempts 0-6, unblocked shot attempts 0-11, shots 0-9, and goals 0-1, the aforementioned Mercer tally.
Deployment is not a major factor here. The line was primarily matched up against the Devils' third line of Ondrej Palat, Erik Haula, and Fabian Zetterlund -- definitely a stronger unit than what the Penguins are working with, but it's not like they were going up against Nico Hischier or Jack Hughes most of their night. They weren't being thrown out there in their own end to start most of their shifts, either -- of the faceoffs they took, three were in the offensive zone, four were in the neutral zone, and five were in the defensive zone. The fourth line of McGinn, Blueger and Josh Archibald managed to start in their own end more often but come out on the better end of the shot attempts and unblocked attempts, finished even in shots on goal and weren't on the ice for any goals scored in either direction. The fourth line also had a much tougher line matchup, being tasked with shutting down Hughes' second line.
It's nothing new, even though McGinn is the one usually on the left wing instead of O'Connor.
There have been 87 forward line combinations across the NHL this season that have been together for at least 150 minutes of five-on-five ice time. "Expected goals" is a goofy-sounding stat that takes into account a number of factors that impacts the statistical likelihood of the shot being a goal -- distance and angle of the shot, whether it's off a rebound or rush, type of shot, time and score of the game, among others. It's the best way to measure an overall quality of a player, line or team's chances. These stats are usually presented in a "per 60" format, meaning that the player or team would be expected to score that many goals in 60 minutes of five-on-five ice time.
Of those 87 regular forward line combinations, the McGinn-Carter-Kapanen line ranks 85th in expected goals for, with 1.97 per 60 minutes. They're not exactly any better on the other side of the puck. They rank 84th-worst in expected goals against, expected to allow 3.33 per 60 minutes.
The members of that line aren't oblivious -- they know that things aren't working. Fixing it is the hard part. Carter made himself available in the locker room following Saturday's loss, only one of a couple of times he's made an appearance in the locker room postgame for reporters in the last two months. I asked him what needs to happen to get his line going.
"Yeah, we haven't played great," he said. "If we're not scoring we can bring some energy, some sustained O-zone time, grind shifts and whatnot. It's been real hit or miss for us. Obviously the offense isn't there right now. We have to find a way to contribute."
He's not exactly sure why things aren't working, either, despite tweaks to the personnel like the one made in this game.
"I wish I had an answer for you there," he said. "We've tried all of these combinations."
Don't mistake Carter's lack of an answer as apathy. It's clear that he's bothered by his line's play.
"It's tough," he said. "You want to go out there and contribute and help the team win. You're not doing that, so..."
When Mike Sullivan spoke afterward, I asked a two-parter -- what have been his observations of the third line's play as of late, and what needs to happen to get that line going?
"You guys ask me that question everyday," he said, obviously frustrated. "My answer is the same. They have moments when they've been good. They have moments when they haven't been."
In Sullivan's defense, not all of this is in his control. He didn't construct this team. An overhauled third line would be great. He's not the one making the personnel moves. The top six isn't getting shuffled to fix this. The fourth line with Blueger, Archibald and (when healthy) Ryan Poehling is one thing that's worked consistently well for the most part this year. The only healthy forward scratch at this point is Danton Heinen, who has spent his fair share this season in the bottom six and has two goals in his last 37 games.
Ron Hextall doesn't have a glut of options at this point himself. Carter has a full no-movement clause, which means that he can't be sent to the minors or traded without his consent, and the 35+ designation with his contract means that the Penguins don't get a cent cap relief in the event he retires or is bought out in the offseason. Kapanen doesn't have any literal trade protection, he just has another year left on his contract that carries a $3.2 million cap hit -- not exactly an appealing project to a team in the flat-cap era. That alone is "protection." Same goes for McGinn, who is usually on that line. He has a $2.75 million cap hit and zero points in his last 22 games. If a team is looking to round out their bottom six in the trade market, there are more affordable and more effective options.
None of that prevents a player from being a healthy scratch, but even that is limiting. When Jan Rutta comes off long-term injured reserve, the Penguins only have enough cap space for two extra skaters -- one forward, and one defenseman ideally. They don't have the wiggle room to even keep O'Connor up on the NHL roster, let alone have a number of struggling forwards sitting in the press box.
Other than with players with no-movement clauses like Carter, there's the option to send a player on a one-way contract down to the minors if they pass through waivers. If they clear and do get sent down, the first $1.1 million of their cap hit comes off the books, and the rest is dead cap. Most of that $1.1 million would get eaten up by the assumed replacement player coming up from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton. As much as it would be interesting to see what someone like Alex Nylander or Valtteri Puustinen would do at the NHL level after each hit the 20-goal plateau in Wilkes-Barre's own game Saturday, that's not an easy swap. Neither of those players are bottom-six-type players. Not with Nylander's deficiencies with pace and play away from the puck, and not with Puustinen's size, lack of physicality, and lack of an exceptional defensive game, for starters. If it were McGinn or Carter coming out of the lineup, you'd also be losing a penalty-killing forward, which Nylander and Puustinen are decidedly not, not even at the AHL level.
If the Penguins want to be contenders this season, figuring out the third line has to be atop the priority list as we approach the March 3 trade deadline. It's not going to be an easy (or cheap) fix by any means, but it's necessary if this team wants to earn a spot in the playoffs, let alone actually go anywhere in the postseason.
