Hope springs eternal in Bradenton, Fla., and a renewed sense of competition is just around the corner.
Even after making some additions this winter, the Pirates remain a young team with some moving parts and roster spots to be won. The goal is to build an organization deep enough that there is always that sense of competition driving players. As a result, there are a couple intriguing jobs up for grabs this spring.
I decided to omit two potential battles for this article: The starting rotation and the outfield. Rotation wise, Johan Oviedo looks like the odd-man out at the moment, but he'll get a look at some point this season. Maybe he's in the bullpen to start the year, maybe it's a six-man rotation. There's just not much to say beyond "let's see how spring training shakes out." In the outfield, the Pirates have plenty of options and there will probably be some roster casualties in that grouping before the year is through. This is going to require a more thorough analysis later this spring after we see how some of these players look.
Today, we're going to look at four jobs that are up for grabs right now, who the contenders are and which analytics we should be keeping an eye on for when these decisions are made.
SECOND BASE
The contenders: Rodolfo Castro, Ji Hwan Bae, Tucupita Marcano
Derek Shelton wasn't willing to commit to a second baseman during his media availability last month, even after Castro's strong finish to the season. The Pirates do have other options. Bae has been considered about a top 10 prospect for some time now, and he finally made the leap to the majors in September. Marcano did not have a strong showing in the majors last year, but he is still just 23 years old and was very coveted by the Pirates in the Adam Frazier trade with the Padres. It's far too early to write him off.
All three offer some defensive versatility too. Castro can play shortstop and third base, while Marcano and Bae can also go in the outfield as well. The outfield has been broached with Castro, but it hasn't gotten far to this point. Perhaps that changes if Bae or Marcano -- or Nick Gonzales or Liover Peguero midseason -- stake their claim as an everyday starter.
Key analytic: Don't be surprised if the Pirates become more aggressive on the base paths this year with the new pitch clock news in place. The pickoff limits gave the advantage to the base runner, and Bae wound up stealing 30 bases on 38 attempts for Class AAA Indianapolis. Bae averaged 29 ft/sec on his competitive runs in the majors last year. For reference, 30 ft/sec is considered an elite speed on a single play, and he's close to that on average. Marcano isn't too far behind in terms of spring speed (28.8 ft/sec), but it hasn't translated to the basepaths. He attempted just six steals in Indianapolis last year and was thrown out five times.
BACKUP CATCHER
The contenders: Tyler Heineman (non-roster), Jason Delay (non-roster), Kevin Plawecki (non-roster)
For the fourth straight year, the backup catcher job is up for grabs in spring training. It's not really a sexy positional battle -- especially if Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis are not in the running for the opening day roster. The job doesn't go to the guy who gets a couple extra hits, but rather the one who puts the pitching staff in the best position to succeed.
Heineman and Delay both got their first real looks in the majors last year, so the eight-year vet Plawecki has an edge there. But Plawecki had -10 defensive runs saved last year while Heineman had 5 and Delay 2. If defense is what matters most for the backup catcher, they have the edge, not to mention the returning duo is already familiar with most of the staff.
Key analytic: Heineman and Delay both graded out as plus pitch framers last year, with Heineman being worth 3 Catcher Framing Runs, according to Baseball Savant, and Delay 2. Neither did particularly well on pitches up in the zone, though. On pitches on the top edge but over the plate, Delay got the call just 49.4% of the time (31st out of 60 qualified catchers) and Heineman got the strike 44.6% of the time (47th). New Pirate catcher Austin Hedges is also a good pitch framer, but he still wasn't great on those borderline high strikes (46.5%, 38th). The Pirates want to be able to use those top quadrants effectively, and being able to steal a couple more strikes high would go a long way. And while Plawecki may not have been a great defender last year, his 56.7% called strike rate on those high pitches on the edge was the seventh-best in baseball.
LEFTY RELIEVER
The contenders: Jose Hernandez, Caleb Smith (non-roster), Angel Perdomo (non-roster), Daniel Zamora (non-roster), Rob Zastryzny (non-roster)
This one's a bit more abstract. The Pirates already have one left-hander in the bullpen in Jarlín García, and there's nothing that explicitly states they need another. However, Hernandez is a Rule 5 pick who either needs to make the team or be returned back to the Dodgers. If the latter happens, it opens up a roster spot for a minor-league free agent. I see this bullpen having two lefties to start the year.
Hernandez sits about 96 mph but ramped up his velocity to triple digits at times at the end of last season. He doesn't have a ton of sweep or depth on the slider yet, so he's going to have to rely on that heater while the breaking ball develops. He's the highest risk, highest reward player out of this group. According to an analyst, Perdomo gets about 19 inches of run on his fastball, which would be more than any other four-seamer Baseball Savant tracked last year. Smith ranked in the top 3% in the league in hard-hit rate last year, but in the bottom 2% in walk rate. Zamora has a very high-spin slider and Zastrynzny gets good spin on his fastball despite throwing about 92 mph. It may not be the most accomplished bunch of southpaws, but everyone has a selling point.
Key analytic: Smith is the latest addition to the spring training pitching staff, and if anyone has a chance to send Hernandez back to the Dodgers, it's probably him. That only happens if he can locate his fastball, though. Last season, his four-seamer was in the strike zone just 49.4%, lower than his slider (54.3%) and changeup (50%), his other two primary pitches. His fastball zone percentage was in the bottom 9% of the league (min. 200 results). If he can challenge hitters in the zone more and get more weak contact, he's a terrific bullpen option. If not, he's going to work a lot of deep counts and give out too many free passes.
RIGHT-HANDED BENCH BAT
The contenders: Connor Joe, Jared Triolo, Ryan Vilade, Miguel Andújar (non-roster) Chris Owings (non-roster)
Again, this is perhaps not the most exciting battle, but it's an area where the Pirates have had no luck the last few years. There are plenty of left-handed hitters on the roster, and the club could use a right-handed, defensively versatile player to either platoon or at least spell players when there's a lefty on the mound.
Joe seems to have the inside track here after being acquired this offseason from the Rockies. He was a great role player in 2021, but he saw his OPS+ drop from 116 to 88 in 2022. Triolo doesn't have any experience above Class AA, so rule him out for opening day. Vilade used to play shortstop and third base, but hasn't set up there since 2019. He may not be versatile enough for consideration. That seems to leave Owings and Andújar as the two most likely candidates to steal Joe's spot. Owings can bounce around the diamond but has never had a season over his 10-year career where he played more than 21 games and posted even league-average hitting results. Andújar has spent most of the last four years on the shelf or in the minors, but he can hit the ball about as hard as anyone on the team besides Oneil Cruz.
Key analytic: There's a lot to like about Joe's approach at the plate. He doesn't whiff or chase often, at least against fastballs. He has whiffed over 37% of the time against breaking balls each of the last two years with some pretty mediocre batted ball peripherals, so he's in trouble if he doesn't crush fastballs. In 2021, he hit .363 with a .449 wOBA, .442 xwOBA and 90 mph average exit velocity against fastballs. This past year, it was a .276 average, .354 wOBA, .365 xWOBA and 87.4 mph average exit velocity. Those numbers are still fine, but if he's not great against the fastball, his overall numbers probably aren't going to be very good.
